This is a HARD game for me to pick.
When I look at the BAMA O VS Aggie D, BAMA SHOULD be able to run on the Aggies and slow down the game. SHOULD. Is the key word.... Do we have the online that was dominant vs Wiscy and UGA or, does the line that looked average at best show up on Saturday? If we can run the ball it opens up the play action passing game and I see is putting up 35+ points.
If the line that struggled in the 1st half with Arky and La Monroe, they put 8 in the box, dare us to throw and we get Coker killed with the Aggie ends in addition to forced throws and turnovers. In that scenario, we struggle to score 20.
Looking at the Aggie O vs the BAMA D.... The Aggies won't be able to run between the tackles and Allen is not the threat to run that Manziel was. Therefore, any success they have running will be the wide zone read plays, jet sweeps, outside toss etc. Ole Miss had some success with that so, I can see the Aggies having enough success to force us to bring up a safety in support. If we are forced to have more 1:1 outside, that can be an issue as tackling in space is something MH has struggled with at times. If that happens, the Aggies can get 2 or 3 big explosive plays allowing them to score in the 30's.
On the flip side, if we can completely shut down the run and force them to drop back and throw 40+ times I believe we can force them into some mistakes......
Then we have the Coach Chavis factor. He knows how to be a thorn in our side.
Until we show we can tackle in space consistently, especially MH AND the O line shows the UGA and Wiscy games are the norm, not outliers, I hate to say I see aTm 31-BAMA 27. I wouldn't be suprised if BAMA won, just not confident enough to pick them! (Especially with the fact AG cannot be counted on for a FG longer than 30-35 yards.)