Since 2007, Alabama Has Faced a Bunch of Opponents with 5+ Days More Rest

ALA2262 · Oct 16, 2015

If I appear to know more about this subject than any of you ever cared to know, it is simply because, over the years, I have studied it, researched it. and analyzed it probably more than all of you combined. The East Division scheduling factor fell into Roy Kramer's lap like manna from Heaven. Made it very easy to provide the open dates prior to Bama games and avoid them prior to ut's games. The 10 year bundle policy allowed him to release both of the first two bundles with the last coming in 2001, covering 2002-2011, the year before he retired in 2002. Also allowed him to set the open dates 10 years in advance. Retired in 2002. Was responsible for the 6 byes in 2010.

B1GTide · Oct 16, 2015

CrimsonForce said:
That's your opinion so don't state it as fact.

No, it is based on statistics in an article posted in the other thread. When I offer my opinion, I ensure that everyone understands that it is only my opinion. I don't put myself or my opinions above anyone.

CrimsonForce · Oct 16, 2015

B1GTide said:
No, it is based on statistics in an article posted in the other thread. When I offer my opinion, I ensure that everyone understands that it is only my opinion. I don't put myself or my opinions above anyone.

You kind of are with your argument about bye weeks considering half of Alabama's regular season losses under CNS have come to teams coming off of a bye week. Sure, playing one team coming off a bye week isn't a big deal. But playing 6 in a row like Alabama did in 2010 or playing 3 in a row like Alabama is having to do this year matters. Since you didn't have any response to the other points in my previous post I'll ask again. If OSU was playing 6 conference games in a row where the opponent was coming off a bye week would you think that would not make a difference in the outcome of those 6 games?

B1GTide · Oct 16, 2015

CrimsonForce said:
If OSU was playing 6 conference games in a row where the opponent was coming off a bye week would you think that would not make a difference in the outcome of those 6 games?

First - don't put words in my mouth.

As to the OSU question, yes it would make a difference. Would it make enough of a difference to cost us a game? I doubt it. Would I be upset about that happening? No - because it would only happen when we were such a dominating force that other teams felt the need to schedule byes before they played us.

CrimsonForce · Oct 16, 2015

B1GTide said:
First - don't put words in my mouth.

As to the OSU question, yes it would make a difference. Would it make enough of a difference to cost us a game? I doubt it. Would I be upset about that happening? No - because it would only happen when we were such a dominating force that other teams felt the need to schedule byes before they played us.

First - the definition of putting your opinion above something is when statistical evidence is provided that shows a correlation between two sets of data and you totally disregard said data. The data is in reference to how bye weeks have impacted Alabama.

As to your response to the OSU question I find it hard to believe that you wouldn't be upset by it..

B1GTide · Oct 16, 2015

CrimsonForce said:
First - the definition of putting your opinion above something is when statistical evidence is provided that shows a correlation between two sets of data and you totally disregard said data. The data is in reference to how bye weeks have impacted Alabama.

As to your response to the OSU question I find it hard to believe that you wouldn't be upset by it..

Look - you are looking at one data point, whether or not the team that beat Alabama had a bye week. You are ignoring a whole lot of other data points that had a whole lot more to do with those losses than the bye week. I am not going to argue with you about this, and I am not going to tell you that you are wrong because I just don't know. I am just saying that it is more complicated than you are making it out to be.

As for me being upset if this were OSU - I love Alabama football almost as much as OSU football, and my wife's entire family is from Alabama with many Alabama grads in the group. It doesn't bother them or me with respect this happening to Alabama this year. So I can say with certainty that it wouldn't bother me with OSU.

Nolan · Oct 16, 2015

That we've gone 19-6 in those FBS leading 25 games against opponents with a bye is pretty dang impressive.

ALA2262 · Oct 16, 2015

Nolan said:
That we've gone 19-6 in those FBS leading 25 games against opponents with a bye is pretty dang impressive.

Eight+ years. Three out of 19 in 7+ years. Three out of 6 in one year! Proof positive that the 6 byes in 2010 had a cumulative effect.

rgw · Oct 16, 2015

We haven't had many losses since Saban got here, so the fact that 6 of them came at the hands of a team who had a bye is an interesting data point. There's been 18 losses under Saban and a third of them are from this scenario. The thing we have to mention though is that LSU and Alabama each take bye weeks before their matchup. LSU has taken one before Alabama every year since 2010 and have won two of those matchups (2010 and 2011). So yes, that is two of the 6 losses off a bye week but to be fair it was an even matchup rest wise. I could buy an argument that this ultimately devalues our bye immensely relative to the 20 other opponent's relative value of their bye before us. I'd also note that 3 of the other 4 losses are Auburn who shamelessly saves their bye for the very end of the season since for as long as I can remember. South Carolina in 2010 was the other one...and I think a few of their gadgets they had on offense and defense were pretty indicative of a quality staff that used their extra week to their team's advantage.

RTR91 · Oct 16, 2015

rgw said:
We haven't had many losses since Saban got here, so the fact that 6 of them came at the hands of a team who had a bye is an interesting data point. There's been 18 losses under Saban and a third of them are from this scenario. The thing we have to mention though is that LSU and Alabama each take bye weeks before their matchup. LSU has taken one before Alabama every year since 2010 and have won two of those matchups (2010 and 2011). So yes, that is two of the 6 losses off a bye week but to be fair it was an even matchup rest wise. I could buy an argument that this ultimately devalues our bye immensely relative to the 20 other opponent's relative value of their bye before us. I'd also note that 3 of the other 4 losses are Auburn who shamelessly saves their bye for the very end of the season since for as long as I can remember. South Carolina in 2010 was the other one...and I think a few of their gadgets they had on offense and defense were pretty indicative of a quality staff that used their extra week to their team's advantage.

I posted an ESPNInsider link earlier that says:

Since the start of 2007, Alabama has played 25 games against teams with at least a five-day rest advantage (games in which Alabama's opponent had a bye and it did not), 10 more than any other team in the nation.

LSU games are excluded from the overall discussion.

rgw · Oct 16, 2015

I don't pay ESPN for garbage that they still load down with trackers and advertisements.

Go Bama · Oct 16, 2015

B1GTide said:
We went over this in a thread last week. It doesn't matter as much as you guys think that it does. As for the bolded - Every team would like a bye before facing any tough opponent. You are on top - here is a down side. Other teams request their bye before facing you. Solution - start losing and this will no longer be an issue.

Which thread are you in reference to? I was at a mission camp last week and missed that thread.

ROTYDE · Oct 16, 2015

OreBama said:
It is traditional for teams to have a week off before the Super Bowl and Alabama is everybody's Super Bowl.

We have a winner!!!

B1GTide · Oct 16, 2015

Go Bama said:
Which thread are you in reference to? I was at a mission camp last week and missed that thread.

http://www.tidefans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=255084

RTR91 · Oct 16, 2015

Brad, do you still have the jpeg of your SEC helmet schedules? Would be nice to see how the schedule breaks down in regards to what every SEC opponent had the week before Alabama. For instance, Arkansas and Mississippi State are the only two SEC opponents to play a SEC game the week before Alabama.

rolltide_21 · Oct 16, 2015

Wow. That is interesting. But, with a 19-6 record it doesn't seem to have affected us much, with the exception of 2010. Even though most opponents had a week off before us that year every game was winnable even in the fourth quarter. I look at it as flattering to our program. Most teams want do get every advantage they can in order to beat us. Apparently it hasn't worked too well

CHATTBRIT · Oct 16, 2015

ccc2259 said:
Amazing. I knew it was a lot, but I had no idea we had 250% more than the next closest SEC team.

I remember it was not too long ago that we played 6 teams with off weeks the week prior to playing us. Just tighten up the chinstrap lads, and hit them head on.

TideEngineer08 · Oct 16, 2015

I saw that Brad Edwards stated on Twitter that he believed this to be completely random. I don't understand how anyone could come to the conclusion that this is random. And Edwards is a BAMA grad.

bama579 · Oct 16, 2015

rgw said:
We haven't had many losses since Saban got here, so the fact that 6 of them came at the hands of a team who had a bye is an interesting data point. There's been 18 losses under Saban and a third of them are from this scenario. The thing we have to mention though is that LSU and Alabama each take bye weeks before their matchup. LSU has taken one before Alabama every year since 2010 and have won two of those matchups (2010 and 2011). So yes, that is two of the 6 losses off a bye week but to be fair it was an even matchup rest wise. I could buy an argument that this ultimately devalues our bye immensely relative to the 20 other opponent's relative value of their bye before us. I'd also note that 3 of the other 4 losses are Auburn who shamelessly saves their bye for the very end of the season since for as long as I can remember. South Carolina in 2010 was the other one...and I think a few of their gadgets they had on offense and defense were pretty indicative of a quality staff that used their extra week to their team's advantage.

Auburn hasn't had a bye week before Alabama in the Saban era . . . Maybe further back than that.

B1GTide · Oct 16, 2015

TideEngineer08 said:
I saw that Brad Edwards stated on Twitter that he believed this to be completely random. I don't understand how anyone could come to the conclusion that this is random. And Edwards is a BAMA grad.

I won't speak to the craziness under Kramer, but I see a trend, not a conspiracy. The trend is simple - a lot of teams are asking for byes the weeks before they play Alabama. And, as someone said earlier in the thread, a lot of schedules are pretty much set years in advance making it harder for the schedulers to avoid these byes. If Alabama were to ask for a major shift in their schedules this might change - like asking for the LSU, TN and Auburn games to come at different times in the season - earlier in the season. That would totally shake up things and make it easier for schedulers to balance this stuff out. But those 3 games coming late in the season has become a huge tradition for all of the schools, so I don't see that happening.

BTW, Alabama also requests it bye date, and it has attempted to do so at the same time of the year every year. I suspect that the Alabama bye is timed to give your players rest as the season gets past the halfway point rather than based on the next opponent, but that opponent has been LSU for a while now. I doubt that it is because you are afraid of LSU.

Since 2007, Alabama Has Faced a Bunch of Opponents with 5+ Days More Rest

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