How do we matchup against Baylor?

crimsonaudio · Nov 6, 2015

Marg said:
serious question. this is a sentiment i've heard for years, but never really understood. instead of a 41 - 40 game, things would be different because it is now 14 - 10?

Typically no. These up-tempo offenses (like Baylor's) rely on finesse and wearing out the other team. When a team can hold the ball and eat clock, these cutesy offenses aren't on the field enough to play like they normally do - they get out of sync and such. Just lost at most any time one of these teams has played against a championship level team - the offense didn't work as well and they aren't able to stay on the field enough to score like the commonly do.

On top of that, these teams rarely (if ever) field a decent defense - they mindset is to outscore the opposing team. Once the offense is kept off the field, kept 'cold', not only are they less effective but the relatively weak defense wears down.

Keep an offense off the field for 34 minutes and they'll have a hard time being effective, finding their groove.

But ultimately, my post above is an answer to the statement that 'no one can hold Baylor under 50 points'...

Redwood Forrest · Nov 6, 2015

Bama opponent W/L total: 33-17 .667
Baylor opponent W/L total: 14-26 .350

Bama opp national Off/Def ranking: 38 - 36
Baylor opp national Off/Def ranking: 82 - 105

I know the Big 12 people want to negate the vast difference in strength of schedule, but IT IS WHAT IT IS. Bama wins.

forgot to say I used Power Five team only.

RollinTider1335 · Nov 6, 2015

tidefanbeezer said:
The only thing that can stop our running game seems to be Lane Kiffin.

That has historically been true. Hope he learned his lesson

mittman · Nov 6, 2015

After watching that game last night I have no doubt that we would run all over them.

TrueCrimson7 · Nov 6, 2015

We match up with them like a 2-dimensional team matches up with a 1-dimensional team.

RTR91 · Nov 6, 2015

crimsonaudio said:
Typically no. These up-tempo offenses (like Baylor's) rely on finesse and wearing out the other team. When a team can hold the ball and eat clock, these cutesy offenses aren't on the field enough to play like they normally do - they get out of sync and such. Just lost at most any time one of these teams has played against a championship level team - the offense didn't work as well and they aren't able to stay on the field enough to score like the commonly do.

On top of that, these teams rarely (if ever) field a decent defense - they mindset is to outscore the opposing team. Once the offense is kept off the field, kept 'cold', not only are they less effective but the relatively weak defense wears down.

Keep an offense off the field for 34 minutes and they'll have a hard time being effective, finding their groove.

But ultimately, my post above is an answer to the statement that 'no one can hold Baylor under 50 points'...

Trying to figure out how to properly use the stats to prove this. Not really sure. Anyone have suggestions?

crimsonaudio · Nov 6, 2015

It would take a lot of data (probably several seasons' worth), but I'll bet you can compare Baylor's TOP and final score and find correlation.

RTR91 · Nov 6, 2015

crimsonaudio said:
It would take a lot of data (probably several seasons' worth), but I'll bet you can compare Baylor's TOP and final score and find correlation.

So far this season, there hasn't been a noticeable difference with TOP and scoring with the exception of last night. Shouldn't expect anything less since the front part of the schedule could be served at a kid's birthday part.

Loam · Nov 6, 2015

Well, as I said before in this thread, Baylor is a run first offense. They rely HEAVILY on their run game because their entire passing attack is predicated around the playaction pass.

When I say run first, I don't mean like Auburn's gimmicky run crap, I mean that Baylor is actually a power running team. Its hard to believe that, I know, but its true. They love to pound you between the tackles with Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin. Baylor for whatever reason, RARELY runs outside the tackles.

So perhaps this is why the TOP seems to be a lot larger on Baylor's side than one might guess it would be.

This is also why you go into a game with Baylor with a stop the run first mentality. You stop their running game, and those playaction vertical passes that they love to do will cease.

With that said, I fully believe that we could shut their run game down with just our front 4 and Reggie Ragland and man up on them outside playing two deep safeties. This IMO is how we would approach Baylor.

RTR91 · Nov 6, 2015

Loam said:
Well, as I said before in this thread, Baylor is a run first offense. They rely HEAVILY on their run game because their entire passing attack is predicated around the playaction pass.

When I say run first, I don't mean like Auburn's gimmicky run crap, I mean that Baylor is actually a power running team. Its hard to believe that, I know, but its true. They love to pound you between the tackles with Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin. Baylor for whatever reason, RARELY runs outside the tackles.

So perhaps this is why the TOP seems to be a lot larger on Baylor's side than one might guess it would be.

This is also why you go into a game with Baylor with a stop the run first mentality. You stop their running game, and those playaction vertical passes that they love to do will cease.

With that said, I fully believe that we could shut their run game down with just our front 4 and Reggie Ragland and man up on them outside playing two deep safeties. This IMO is how we would approach Baylor.

Who said TOP was "a lot larger on Baylor's side?" The only game Baylor won the TOP battle this season was Texas Tech. They've lost it every other game by at least 5 minutes.

Loam · Nov 6, 2015

RTR91 said:
Who said TOP was "a lot larger on Baylor's side?" The only game Baylor won the TOP battle this season was Texas Tech. They've lost it every other game by at least 5 minutes.

I didn't say anyone said it. I just said that if their TOP seems to be more than what *some* think it would be, then I stated the reasons why. Usually teams like Baylor get totally dominated in TOP, but that isn't *always* the case with Baylor.

RTR91 · Nov 6, 2015

Loam said:
I didn't say anyone said it. I just said that if their TOP seems to be more than what *some* think it would be, then I stated the reasons why. Usually teams like Baylor get totally dominated in TOP, but that isn't *always* the case with Baylor.

I believe I correctly did the math. Over the last two seasons, Baylor averages losing the TOP by over 4 minutes.

They are currently ranked 123 in the nation with an average of 25 minutes per game. They ranked 89 last year with 29 minutes per game.

Running between the tackles has nothing to do with how much time a team takes on the field if the team is going to wait less than 15 seconds per play.

drwho · Nov 6, 2015

RTR91 said:
Trying to figure out how to properly use the stats to prove this. Not really sure. Anyone have suggestions?

Last night's final score.

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tidefanbeezer · Nov 6, 2015

RTR91 said:
Trying to figure out how to properly use the stats to prove this. Not really sure. Anyone have suggestions?

It would probably be some combination of stats, though I'm not exactly sure what it would look like (or what data you have access to). I'm just spit-balling here.

Reliance on finesse and being in sync: probably completion % and/or completion % on 1st & second down - I'd think a team that is in a groove probably completes more first and second down passes and ends up in less third down situations or more manageable ones (so maybe look at number of third downs, distance and conversion rates too)

Wearing out the other team: perhaps yards per play by quarter (could do the same against Baylor's defense to see if they wear down easily against teams that go heavy on TOP); maybe even look at points per play by quarter or possession (see if they score at a higher rate in later quarters once they are fully in sync and have worn down opposing defenses)

I'm not sure you'll find a championship level team in the Big 12, so I don't know how to validate that piece of CAs statement.

bama579 · Nov 6, 2015

One of my football prayers is to get to the playoff and face either Baylor or TCU in the first round.

bamacon · Nov 6, 2015

Loam said:
Well, as I said before in this thread, Baylor is a run first offense. They rely HEAVILY on their run game because their entire passing attack is predicated around the playaction pass.

When I say run first, I don't mean like Auburn's gimmicky run crap, I mean that Baylor is actually a power running team. Its hard to believe that, I know, but its true. They love to pound you between the tackles with Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin. Baylor for whatever reason, RARELY runs outside the tackles.

It's because they know all the defenses in the big 12 aren't built to stop it. Think about it, Saban has two defenses for the sec opposition. You have to field very different types of players to beat AU and A&M compared with LSU and Arky.

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