JessN: Off-week analysis: Is this the year Alabama gets caught outside, looking in?

JessN · Nov 1, 2015

Off-week analysis: Is this the year Alabama gets caught outside, looking in?
by Jess Nicholas
TideFans Editor-In-Chief
November 1st, 2015 01:21 AM

By Jess Nicholas TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief Nov. 1, 2015 For the Alabama fans who couldn’t bear to do the unthinkable – cheer for Auburn to win a football game – the Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss was a bittersweet sigh of relief. Alabama needs Ole Miss to lose once more if the Crimson Tide aims to […]

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foreveratidefan · Nov 1, 2015

Ole Miss plays Arkansas next weekend. WOO PIG SOOIEE!! *washes mouth out with soap*

GrayTide · Nov 1, 2015

IMO the only guaranteed SEC finalist would be an undefeated LSU. Still a lot of football left to be played.

bamacon · Nov 1, 2015

IMO, if LSU/Bama aren't in the SECCG then the Gators will be the team representing the SEC in the playoffs.

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B1GTide · Nov 1, 2015

GrayTide said:
IMO the only guaranteed SEC finalist would be an undefeated LSU. Still a lot of football left to be played.

I think that Florida or Alabama would also get in if they won out (including the SECCG), but as you said, not guaranteed.

Remember that your situation looked even more dire in 2011 and 2012, but you made it into both of those championship games. Teams will continue to lose as the pressures of their success mount. Every week the pressure on these teams at the top increases. It becomes more about surviving than winning. The teams that don't cave to that pressure will make it, but a lot of the teams listed will cave.

CajunCrimson · Nov 1, 2015

Florida has to beat FSU or that won't happen.....

Bama and LSU are the only 2 I see having a chance.

trenda · Nov 1, 2015

Thanks Jess. Laid out better than any talking head could do.

TrueCrimson7 · Nov 1, 2015

Great thoughts. We need to win out. Ole Miss will lose one more.

TideEngineer08 · Nov 1, 2015

We can't really complain if we get left out, because we gagged the game against Ole Miss away. Especially if we don't win the SEC.

Up until this past week I was confident we would be in if we won out. I'm not so much anymore but I'm at peace with it because it will come down to the fact we blew it, not that we will have gotten hosed.

Still a lot of football to be played though. It should be a fun November.

Bama1985 · Nov 1, 2015

Jess, Good analysis. But there should be a correction.

You wrote
"What does matter is that Ole Miss lose at least once over its remaining three games. The Rebels are off this week, then play Arkansas, then LSU, and finally Mississippi State to end the season."

Ole Miss is not off this week. They play Arkansas this week and then have a bye week before LSU. This could help Ole Miss beat a tired LSU team in Oxford.

RTR91 · Nov 1, 2015

CajunCrimson said:
Florida has to beat FSU or that won't happen.....

Bama and LSU are the only 2 I see having a chance.

Worst case for the SEC - Ole Miss wins out and loses to Florida in Atlanta the week after Florida loses to FSU.

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B1GTide · Nov 1, 2015

RTR91 said:
Worst case for the SEC - Ole Miss wins out and loses to Florida in Atlanta the week after Florida loses to FSU.

I wonder if something like this could open the door for an undefeated team from the AAC.

centerstar · Nov 1, 2015

I suppose it depends on who else is in.

B1GTide said:
I wonder if something like this could open the door for an undefeated team from the AAC.

drwho · Nov 1, 2015

B1GTide said:
I wonder if something like this could open the door for an undefeated team from the AAC.

An undefeated Clemson would absolutely be in the playoff. You can count on that.

JessN · Nov 1, 2015

Bama1985 said:
Jess, Good analysis. But there should be a correction.

You wrote
"What does matter is that Ole Miss lose at least once over its remaining three games. The Rebels are off this week, then play Arkansas, then LSU, and finally Mississippi State to end the season."

Ole Miss is not off this week. They play Arkansas this week and then have a bye week before LSU. This could help Ole Miss beat a tired LSU team in Oxford.

Fixed, thanks. I actually made more errors than just this one in the first draft. Kind of interesting how turned around a person can get trying to write about 5-10 teams' schedules.

JessN · Nov 1, 2015

drwho said:
An undefeated Clemson would absolutely be in the playoff. You can count on that.

Here's the doomsday scenario:

1) Undefeated Ohio State
2) Undefeated Clemson
3) Undefeated Big 12 champ
4) One-loss PAC-12 champ or one-loss Notre Dame (because the two, Stanford and ND, actually play each other)

Alabama could be locked out whether it won the SEC or not.

Also, there will be a push, if the undefeated Big Ten champ is Iowa, for a one-loss Ohio State team to go ahead of Alabama so it can "defend its title."

What you have to understand about committees is they can take whoever they personally want to see in the game, and there is going to be a major push from West Coast interests (TV, advertisers, committee members) to have the PAC-12 represented in this game if Stanford runs the table. Alabama needs to hope for the Big 12 to take each other out (Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State all play each other) and for Clemson to lose. That way, Alabama can pull for Stanford to win out and eliminate Notre Dame from consideration. I feel fairly certain the committee would take a one-loss SEC champ Alabama over a one-loss Big 12 team because of the lack of a Big 12 Championship Game.

The only way a one-loss, non-SEC champ Alabama team gets in is this way:

1) Ohio State wins out
2) Clemson wins out
3) Big 12 beats each other up
4) Pitt beats Notre Dame, and Notre Dame beats Stanford, -or- Stanford beats Notre Dame and then loses in the PAC-12 Championship Game,
5) Florida beats Florida State, then loses to Ole Miss in the SECCG.

It also wouldn't hurt, in that scenario, for Memphis to lose and for Utah to lose once more in the regular season.

TideMom2Boys · Nov 1, 2015

I will say that for the lack of "luck" we have in games. We sure do have the "luck" for things working out for us to get into the BCS or playoffs. November has been very good to us for other teams/conferences having chaos.

B1GTide · Nov 1, 2015

drwho said:
An undefeated Clemson would absolutely be in the playoff. You can count on that.

Agreed, but I was talking about the AAC, not the ACC. Memphis maybe?

bama579 · Nov 1, 2015

drwho said:
An undefeated Clemson would absolutely be in the playoff. You can count on that.

AAC = former Big East. American Athletic Conf. Did you read as ACC? :wink:

Blindside13 · Nov 1, 2015

B1GTide said:
Agreed, but I was talking about the AAC, not the ACC. Memphis maybe?

Depending how every thing shakes out if Memphis is still undefeated then yes I think they will certainly be in the discussion.

JessN: Off-week analysis: Is this the year Alabama gets caught outside, looking in?

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