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First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)

russtang

russtang

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Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

I think OSU got a lotta love by the committee this week too. Their SOS is about the same as Baylor and they have had to scrap in the 4th quarter to win some while Baylor has won most games by the 2nd quarter.
They talked a lot about how the committee emphasized SOS but there is a good amount of projection evident too.

With that said, lots of games to be played and most of the questions will be answered on the field.

I do think Clemson, LSU, OSU are guaranteed to get in if they win out.
 
edwd58

edwd58

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Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

Saw Mark May on a show Sunday morning, he said we'd be in the top 4.
 
snake plissken

snake plissken

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TideEngineer08 said:
Yeah if a Big 12 team finishes undefeated they are in.

If Clemson finishes undefeated they are in.

If a Big Ten team finishes undefeated, they are in.

If LSU wins out, they are in.

Those are the only entities that control their own destiny at this point. Those of you that think tonight's ranking means anything for Alabama are sadly mistaken, I'm afraid. We need several things to fall into place besides us winning out.
Click to expand...

Those are my worries too. If Ole Miss will get that 2nd SEC loss, I am 100% confident about our chances.
 
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imaloyalone

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Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

tidefanbeezer said:
You will probably find the committee more open to Notre Dame over 1-loss teams that don't with their conference. The committee has to endure less scrutiny if they don't have to answer why a team that didn't win its conference gets to be in the play-off.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I agree with your premise on this one. The committee is well aware that having a 4-team playoff is usually going to result in one Power 5 conference whining about being left out. That's a major annual burden to bear for the committee - one that would likely happen 3 out of every 4 years. The best way for the committee to get some relief from this type of scrutiny would be to put an Alabama ahead of a one-loss Big 12 conference champion. The outcry would be great enough that expansion to eight teams could occur prematurely. :)
 
BamaMoon

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snake plissken said:
Those are my worries too. If Ole Miss will get that 2nd SEC loss, I am 100% confident about our chances.
Click to expand...
There's no question that OM losing and us winning out thru the SECCG (preferably against a one loss Gator team) is the best case scenario for us to get in.

However, the first ranking with us at #4 drastically improves the possibility of us making it in without being conference champs. Other things have to fall, but it's much better to be #4 right now than 6 or 7 or lower (where most of even us thought we'd be).
 
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imaloyalone

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TideEngineer08 said:
Yeah if a Big 12 team finishes undefeated they are in.

If Clemson finishes undefeated they are in.

If a Big Ten team finishes undefeated, they are in.

If LSU wins out, they are in.

Those are the only entities that control their own destiny at this point. Those of you that think tonight's ranking means anything for Alabama are sadly mistaken, I'm afraid. We need several things to fall into place besides us winning out.
Click to expand...
I believe you can add Florida and Baylor/Okie State/TCU to your list. A one-loss SEC champ makes it in without doubt (likely over Stanford or ACC one-loss champ) IMO... especially if it's UF defeating LSU. An undefeated Big 12 champ definitely trumps a one-loss conference champion (even with a championship game) and the Pac 12 champ is guaranteed at least one loss.
 
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TideMom2Boys

TideMom2Boys

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First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

After reading Twitter tonight...it sure is great to be an Alabama fan. :pDT_popc1:
 
BamaBuc

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Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

B1GTide said:
Stunned that the committee ranked Alabama this high - happy, but stunned. Really didn't give them enough credit. Alabama has, by far, the most impressive collection of wins right now. Beat LSU and no team will come close this year. Still, even with all of that, there are many scenarios in which Alabama wins out but doesn't win the SEC and gets left out - crazy as that would seem given this ranking.
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Then the clamor starts for 8.....
 
C

Crimson Speed

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Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

I am surprised that we made the top four at this point in the season. Personally, I believe we would have been better off if they ranked us 5th or 6th right now, then letting the cards fall after the LSU game. Bottom line, as everyone knows, we have to win out to have a chance. RT
 
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deliveryman35

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Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

BamaMoon said:
BCS would have us at #1.:biggrin:
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You're being sarcastic I know and Danny Kanelll can get mad all he wants, but the truth is under that system we might very well be no 1 given our strength of schedule and that's no joke.

As far as I'm concerned, the national media can cry until the cows come home. THEY were the ones who wanted this system, while we were happy with the BCS. You got what you wanted! Stop your whining!
 
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imaloyalone

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Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

The way I'm seeing it, this is the way the committee will look at things...

Undefeated conference champ w/ a championship game > Undefeated Big 12 champ (last year's precedent)

Undefeated Big 12 champ > One-loss champ from conference with a championship game

One-loss conference champ w/ a championship game > One-loss Big 12 champ (same as first scenario)

One-loss Big 12 champ > Two-loss champ from conference with a championship game

One-loss non-champ team in a conference > One-loss Notre Dame IF SOS is greater (tonight's precedent)
 
4

4Q Basket Case

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TideEngineer08 said:
Yeah if a Big 12 team finishes undefeated they are in.

If Clemson finishes undefeated they are in.

If a Big Ten team finishes undefeated, they are in.

If LSU wins out, they are in.

Those are the only entities that control their own destiny at this point. Those of you that think tonight's ranking means anything for Alabama are sadly mistaken, I'm afraid. We need several things to fall into place besides us winning out.
Click to expand...
Undefeated Clemson -- agree.
Undefeated Big 10 Champ -- agree.
Undefeated LSU -- agree.

Undefeated Big 12? Respectfully disagree.

I think the committee has sent three messages:
First, at a strategic level, they favor what we would all call traditional football. They are not impressed with statistics piled up with defense-optional basketball on grass.

Second, at a tactical level, Ole Miss's loss to Memphis hurts them WAY more than their win over us helps. Because....

Third, also at a tactical level, they recognize that, after 5 turnovers, a once-in-a-century fluke, and a crucial badly blown officials' call, Ole Miss STILL beat us by only 6 points. They're saying it was so flukey that its value is greatly diminished. Not zero value, but not near what a straight-up beating would be worth.

Based on the fact that OM isn't the first, or even the second team out, I do think it's possible that if Alabama and Ole Miss both win out, a one-loss Alabama team gets in over the Conference Champ Black Bears, or Rebs, or whatever they are these days.

To reiterate: I think damage to OM from the straight-up beating by Memphis outweighs the drunk lucky win against us.

And the basketball on grass Big 12 champ loses out to a one loss SEC team, even if that one-loss SEC team is Alabama.

So OM is the Big 12's best hope. The Big 12 gets in over the SEC only if every team in the SEC-W has 2 or more losses.

It gets real interesting if the SEC Champ ends up being the one- loss SEC-E Gators. Also gets interesting if LSU beats us, but OM wins out, leaving a one-loss LSU vs. OM. That's a puzzler.
 
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deliveryman35

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Re: Tonights the first Playoff Poll release. What's YOUR prediction.

CullmanTide said:
If Mississippi wins out they will have wins over Alabama, LSU and a revenge win against Florida. Even with 2 loses with that resume, they're in.
Click to expand...
I agree, and given that resume I would actually support it. But I don't think it happens....
 
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deliveryman35

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It's amusing to me how invested danny kannell and Joey Galloway are in our defeat. If somehow we win out, these two might need to be put on suicide watch.
 
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