CFP predictions (11/24)

BamainBoston said:

You can say that, but assuming their QB is healthy, does anyone really think either Notre Dame or Michigan St. is better than Oklahoma? And if he isn't healthy, that will take care of itself this week.

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I don't. The Sooners would beat both of those teams on a neutral field.

Re: CFP predictions (11/24 and final)

JBama_in_PCOLA said:

A lot of you are expecting ND to lose. Some even predicting Stanford getting in even with two losses? What?!


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Temple is decent but not that good; neither is BC. ND has used up TD Jesus this year.

My whole problem is that we're getting the same pretzel logic that BCS defenders used to use to justify the outcome, and I think it's just as bogus now as it was then. Oklahoma jumping four spots after Saturday night has to rank as one of the sickest jokes I've ever witnessed. Unlike if you merely used the amalgamation of the BCS Top Four (computers, eye test, human polls), you FIRST select the team and THEN you justify it using any criteria you wish.

(Before I start this - I made an ill-informed snide comment about ND's schedule yesterday and after looking at it I must concur with B1G here that ND has played an acceptable schedule).

Want Oklahoma over Notre Dame? Cite irrelevant data like "they've gone 6-0 since losing to Texas" (Notre Dame went 6-0, too, since losing to Clemson and their teams combined record from those six games is 39-26; OU went 6-0 and their opponent's records? 31-33). And then ignore not one but TWO of your WRITTEN criteria.......1) games against common opponents (ND wipes floor with lousy Texas team, who beats OU....ignore it); and 2) key injuries that can affect outcomes (so Colt, sorry, I mean Trevor AND the 2nd string are hurt and OU beats TCU by ONE.....and that's enough for a four-spot leap and dropping Notre Dame?)

Want Notre Dame over Oklahoma? Pull a variation of "we ruled out TCU because Baylor beat them" by saying, "Well, their only head to head opponent was the decider."

Sure, OU mauled Baylor....but who exactly did Baylor beat to go to 8-0 in the first place?

I'm not arguing for either team here. I'm inclined to think that OU is better than ND but that isn't the point. The criteria changes from week to week based SOLELY on name recognition. If this is what college football is going to be then why don't we just put the 5-7 CFB blue bloods in a round robin every year and crown the winner champion of the 7-team league?

Furthermore, citing "Oklahoma has averaged winning by 32.2 points" is a ridiculous stat to cite - since let's see:

K-State (4-6) - 55 point win
Texas Tech (6-5) - 36 point win
Kansas (0-11) - 55 point win
Iowa St (3-8) - 36 point win


I'm sorry, but this doesn't impress me in the least. Sure, Notre Dame didn't average winning by 32.2 ppg....because they played BETTER teams. (Is the committee NOW telling us that it is necessary to run up the score to impress them? REALLY?)

Against Baylor, OU won by ten.

Against TCU, they blew a 30-7 lead in the fourth quarter against (I repeat) a THIRD-STRING QB!!!! ALL of that impressive 32.2 margin was against nobodies and is as unimpressive as saying, "Alabama plays in the SEC and beat their last opponent by FIFTY!!!"

I won't take the time to argue A vs B as its irrelevant at this point. But the committee can wax nose the criteria all they want and that's the joke here.

if the entire objective is to pit the four best teams against each other, then Oklahoma belongs right now IMO. Baker Mayfield is the prototypical qb that we've struggled at times against and seeing that O against our D would be a fascinating matchup.

Selma, I agree. It's why I don't like the committee.

Yes, Oklahoma looks like a better team, but Notre Dame has the same record vs. a tougher schedule and they beat Texas, who OU did not beat. IMO, that means Notre Dame is more deserving based upon what has happened on the field. But OU seems more deserved based upon talent/ability.

BamainBoston said:

I guess that's the divide. I don't care what's fair. If I've got two teams with the same record, I want the best one in the playoff.

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I'd argue you do care what's fair, and your criteria for such is "the best" gets the nod. But that's subjective. Judging based upon actual results is for more objective.

In the end, I doubt it matters. Notre Dame is probably going to lose to Stanford.

BamainBoston said:

But Oklahoma is one of the four best teams. So...

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Says who? Oh that's right.....

Re: CFP predictions (11/24 and final)

twofbyc said:

Temple is decent but not that good; neither is BC. ND has used up TD Jesus this year.

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I'm not so sure. It could go either way.


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Btw - this weekend probably make this moot but even do that doesn't justify the ranking.

We are sure to get some clarity this weekend.

BamainBoston said:

But Oklahoma is one of the four best teams. So...

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I think you're probably right.

I even think what they REALLY want is Alabama vs OU in Dallas.

I hope and pray Stanford beats the domers and OU gets hammered by OSU - then there will be some serious caterwauling.

How To Justify ANY Team (Inclusion/Exclusion)

Clemson - (this one is pretty much impossible to exclude AS OF RIGHT NOW)

Alabama - (see above - these two teams EVERYONE seems to agree upon)

Oklahoma - out? lost to Texas who beat Notre Dame; in? 2nd toughest SOS and only one loss

Iowa - schedule is not difficult enough

Michigan State - also difficult to justify exclusion but matters not since the next 2 weeks will sort out the two teams above reasonably well

Notre Dame - didn't win their conference championship

Baylor - didn't win their conference championship, lost to OU head-to-head, eliminated (want them in? Note their huge margins of victory

Ohio State - (In - defending champs with only one loss; Out - pick a reason)

Stanford - can't include over Michigan because they lost to Northwestern, whom Michigan killed (want them in? they won their conference championship)

Michigan - out? lost to Utah badly and how can you keep them over Mich St, who beat them; in? they played tough schedule and beat Ohio St and the win over NW trumps the loss to Utah (everyone see how I'm just making stuff up to justify it - which is the point?)

Okie State - lost to Baylor but won the other games and deserves the compassion clause because of the tragedy where (insert story about girl driving car into crowd)

Florida - out? barely beat FAU and lost to four-loss LSU team; in? won SEC!!!!

UNC (skipped FSU due to two losses) - in? THEY BEAT CLEMSON AND ONLY HAD ONE LOSS!! out? they didn't play nobody....

Navy? in? they're 9-1 and they have nobody who will ever play in the NFL so that counts more; out? how can you include them over a one-loss ND who beat them head to head?

Where I am:

1. Clemson Win and in
South Carolina
ACC Championship Game

2. Alabama Win and in
Auburn
SEC Championship Game KO Florida

3. Oklahoma Probably a Win and In. They got the needed help, but I still did not expect them to jump Notre Dame. IMO that Texas differentiator should be key.
Oklahoma State

4. Iowa Win and in
Nebraska
B10 Championship Game KO Michigan State

5.Michigan State. Win and in. They are trending very well and still have a KO game.
Penn State
B10 Championship Game KO Iowa

6. Notre Dame Needs help. Their lackluster win appears to have bit them.
Stanford

7. Baylor. Needs help.
TCU

8. Ohio State Needs help
Michigan
B10 Championship (With help that I don't see them getting)

9. Stanford. I just dont see it. Even if they beat Notre Dame there are going to be too many 1 loss contenders with better bodies of work.
Notre Dame KO
P12 Championship Game

10. Michigan. Needs something really weird to happen.
Ohio State

11. Oklahoma State Needs help. Them being this low and Oklahoma being that high makes little sense to me.
Oklahoma

12. Florida Win and in
Florida State
SEC Championship Game KO Alabama

13. Florida State No hope
Florida

14. North Carolina Still has a breath with the Clemson game, but IMO they need help.
NC State
ACC Championship Game

There a lot of possible outcomes the next two weekends but from purely the eyeball test I see Oklahoma in (assuming Mayfield is ready for Bedlam). Clemson and Alabama. Michigan State gets PSU at home (and if Connor Cook is ready) they will beat Iowa in Indianapolis.

Clemson vs Michigan State
Alabama vs Oklahoma

BamainBoston said:

I still think the Big 10 team will end up third, with Oklahoma or the winner of the Stanford Notre Dame game at fourth.

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Too many ifs still available, but I agree. If Clemson wins out, Alabama wins out, Iowa/Michigan State wins out (whether or not the B1G team is 3rd or 4th, everyone else is still fighting for that one spot. What intrigues me is the scenario of a Notre Dame win over Stanford and an Oklahoma win over Ok State.

I think the committee has opened up the scenario for Oklahoma to get in (munching on crow here). However, even with Notre Dame's lackluster wins and Oklahoma's surge, between those two I still can't see the two factors being the push:

1. Texas common opponent
2. Much better loss for Notre Dame

I never take beating anybody for granted. After Saturday, if the Sooners get by the budget Aggies, we can talk. Talk around here is Masen Rudolph has a broken bone in his ankle and won't play Saturday. Who would have guessed OU would play Baylor without Seth Rogers, TCU without Boykin, and OState without Rudolph?
What kind of playoff would it be without Bama/OU? It would be epic!

wishbonesooner said:

I never take beating anybody for granted. After Saturday, if the Sooners get by the budget Aggies, we can talk. Talk around here is Masen Rudolph has a broken bone in his ankle and won't play Saturday. Who would have guessed OU would play Baylor without Seth Rogers, TCU without Boykin, and OState without Rudolph?
What kind of playoff would it be without Bama/OU? It would be epic!

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I was secretly hoping to play Oklahoma and Ohio State in the playoffs to not only win a CFP, but revenge the last two post season losses. THAT would be epic

wishbonesooner said:

I never take beating anybody for granted. After Saturday, if the Sooners get by the budget Aggies, we can talk. Talk around here is Masen Rudolph has a broken bone in his ankle and won't play Saturday. Who would have guessed OU would play Baylor without Seth Rogers, TCU without Boykin, and OState without Rudolph?
What kind of playoff would it be without Bama/OU? It would be epic!

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Yeah I just don't see OSU beating OU, but stranger things have happened. TCU darn near won that game, but I think if your QB is healthy, you should beat the Cowboys.

I may think Notre Dame would deserve the spot over OU, but OU is the more talented and capable opponent. I would relish, but worry about the match up. Alabama would steam roll Notre Dame.