You can think that tells you whatever you want to think it tells you.
The facts tell a different story...
In the last 50 years, a team favored by 7 or more points has only lost four times.
In the last 50 years, the average spread when the underdog has won is less than 3.0 points.
In the last 50 years, the favorite has covered the spread more often than the underdog.
In the last 50 years, the favorite has covered the spread more than twice as often as the underdog has won outright.
In the last 50 years, the underdog has won outright in only one out of five tries.
