Well it's that time again. (Maybe I should have submitted this as a news article but anyway). For the next six days we're going to hear what a great classic the Iron Bowl has often been (true), appeals to past games with unforgettable names (Punt Bama Punt, 315, The Kick, etc) and the most worthless cliche of the in-state rivalry - 'you throw out the records, either team can win this game.'
I say, "Hogwash." You're gonna hear it a dozen times folks - and it is not true. In point of fact - as far as upsets - this rivalry is pretty much a total dud.
Since 1981, I've only missed three Iron Bowls on TV (well, four if you count me being in the stands in 2012) - 1982 (I lived in Germany and we didn't get it), 1993 (Auburn was on a TV ban), and 2006 (I went to a wedding for my sister-in-law's third marriage, and it lasted 11 months). And I'm well-read on the sport and the game and let me tell you - this game is won by the better team (or at least competitive team that executes well) 99.9% of the time.
The Iron Bowl really began its modern incarnation in 1948, when Alabama drilled 1-8-1 Auburn, 55-0. Not exactly a surprising result from a 5-4-1 Alabama team. Auburn won by a single point in 1949 in what might be called an upset if you set aside the fact that the reason Auburn had only two wins is because they also had three ties. From 1950-58, the team with the better record won every single time save the year 1953, when Alabama (6-3-3) beat Auburn (7-3-1), 10-7, which sounds about like what would be expected rather than some sort of upset.
Even in 1959, Coach Bryant's first win, it was 7-2-2 Alabama over 7-3 Auburn, a pretty even contest record-wise. Even the Tide's loss in 1963 was a two-loss Alabama losing to a two-loss Auburn, hardly a colossal upset at all.
So how many times has the demonstrably inferior team won the Iron Bowl since its renewal in 1947? Five? Eight? Ten? After all, we're told 'either team can win this regardless of the record' in hype form (not in literal form, which is obvious). How many times has a team with 3 more losses than the other team won the game? (I picked the number at random but that sounds reasonable since a 7-3 beating a 10-0 would be quite a level of upset back in the day).
Try never.
Now the modern era fan will insist that several of the games qualify as upsets, so I'm gonna look at those. Those games are from 1972, 1982, 1984, 2001, and 2002.
1972, of course, is the infamous Punt Bama Punt game. There is no need to go over the details as they were well-known by all fans. The popular story is that Alabama knocked Auburn all over the field because the Tigers couldn't move and then they blocked two punts in the waning moments and walked off with a 17-16 win. And to a large degree the story is true. However, what is often forgotten is that Auburn entered that game with an 8-1 record, their only loss to LSU. Alabama was undefeated, true, but a one-loss team beating an unbeaten in the final game can hardly be called an upset. Yes, Alabama outplayed Auburn, but the two teams were evenly matched and the one-loss team prevailed by a point. This hardly makes the case that 'anyone can win this one.'
1982 was Coach Bryant's final game and, in fact, Auburn's first victory in the series since the game covered above. Alabama well outplayed Auburn for the first 51 minutes of the game. In fact, Auburn only had 132 yards of offense entering the fourth quarter. Auburn put it all together and handed Alabama (and Coach Bryant) their third loss in a row to end the 1982 season, 23-22. It was stunning at the time but really should not have been. Auburn's only losses entering the game were to national title contender Nebraska, a two-point loss to 8-4 Florida and a five-point controversial loss to Georgia in Herschel Walker's last SEC game. Alabama, meanwhile, had just lost to Tennessee and LSU for the first time since 1970 and been slapped around brutally by Southern Miss to end an 18-year home winning streak.
The result was a surprise but could hardly be called an upset. A team with narrow losses to highly ranked teams edged a team teetering on the brink of major problems. Not an upset by any stretch.
2001 was overshadowed as were the entire final months of the year by the 9/11 tragedy. Entering the Iron Bowl, Auburn had the inside track, a 7-2 record and leading the SEC West. The two teams squared off on November 17 (rather early for recent Iron Bowls) when Alabama had a 4-5 record and Auburn was the expected favorite. Alabama went out and not only beat Auburn, they sandblasted them, 31-7. It was considered a huge upset at the time and meets the criteria - a team with three more losses beats the favorite.
But was it? It was covered as so but as events unfolded, it really wasn't. As amazing as it may seem, Auburn and Alabama ended 2001 with the exact same record of 7-5. After losing to Alabama, Auburn faced off against LSU in the make-up game scheduled for 9/16 (the games the weekend after 9/11 were all postponed immediately). LSU ripped Auburn, 27-14, and they then got creamed by North Carolina in the bowl game, 21-6. In fact, if you go examine 2001 Auburn closely, you'll find something amazing on their offensive point totals: 27, 24, 16, 23, 17, 24, 7, 14. Those are their point totals for SEC games that year. Their 24 barely beat Vandy (by the same three-point margin as Alabama did that same year), their 16 beat Miss State by two (Tide won by 7), and their 23 somehow beat Florida (probably the main reason they were the IB favorite) and 24 beat Georgia. But when you look at common opponents, you have to seriously question why anyone even thought Auburn would win the game
1) VANDY (Tide by 3, Auburn by 3)
2) Arkansas (Tide by 21, Auburn lost by 25)
3) Ole Miss (Tide lost by 3, Auburn win by 6)
And then after the Iron Bowl was the LSU game, who beat us by 14 and Auburn by 13.
This game is another that was considered an upset at the time but really wasn't. Alabama got going better as the season went along and Auburn got worse. Given that the Iron Bowl is played late in the year.......
2002 - this loss might stick in my craw worse than any other game we've ever played. Alabama went into the game as a huge favorite, so much so that Bo Jackson was called in to stir up the faithful, telling the team that nobody was giving them a chance to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Auburn responded with a 17-7 win that felt more like 47-7. Alabama went through the motions much as we had in 2000 with a much worse team. It featured 7-4 Auburn beating 9-2 Alabama, who had only lost to national contender OU in September (and earned national respect with a great comeback in Norman) and lost on the final play to SEC champions UGA in October.
But here's a better question - why was Alabama such a huge favorite in the first place? Yes, Auburn had four losses. But USC was becoming a dynasty (they went 11-2 with the Heisman winner that year) while it is often forgotten that Auburn lost to UGA by THREE points (the Tide lost by 2). In fact, look at common opponents yet again:
1) Vandy (Auburn by 25, Alabama by 22)
2) Miss St (Auburn by 28, Alabama by 14)
3) Arkansas (Auburn LOST by 21, Alabama WON by 18)
4) LSU (Auburn by 24, Alabama by 31)
5) Ole Miss (Auburn by 7, Alabama by 35)
6) Georgia (Auburn loss by 2, Alabama loss by 3)
So the two teams beat Vandy and LSU about the same, lost to UGA about the same, and each one dominated a different Mississippi team more than the other. Only the Arkansas game suggested Auburn was overmatched by Alabama.
And then there's the other stuff that makes this game a complete outlier anyway. It later came out that Coach Dennis Franchione had spent much of the final six weeks as head coach plotting his exit strategy from Tuscaloosa, and the football team played exactly as if Franchione had not gone over a single game plan. Never before or since have I actually wondered if a game was thrown by one of the teams (oops - OU sure did throw that 2011 Bedlam game like nobody's business).
But even with the feeling at the time, you'd be hard-pressed to 'really 'call this any sort of upset. The common opponents (and they had six of them) suggest that whatever shenanigans Franchione was up to hurt a team that was already going to be in for a tough game anyway, certainly tougher than press coverage suggested. Thus, even if we wish to say 2002 was a real upset, it is tainted with outside distractions that don't apply to any other Iron Bowl in history.
And that brings us to the only REAL upset in the Iron Bowl since 1948, the shocking 1984 triumph of 4-6 Alabama over Sugar Bowl contender Auburn at Legion Field on December 1 by a score of 17-15. I'm willing to classify this ONE contest as a genuine upset. Auburn began the year at #1 and played a VERY challenging schedule (as did Alabama, whose schedule was even tougher). They narrowly lost to Miami and then to Texas and their Heisman candidate Bo Jackson got hurt and was on the shelf for six games. Without Bo, Auburn's high-octane offense still managed to put up 42 points on Florida State and 48 on Georgia Tech. A look at common opponents shows that Auburn beat UGA by 9 (Tide lost by 10 and game wasn't even really that close), routed Ga Tech by 24 (Tide lost by 10 in another game that wasn't even that close), beat Cincinnati by sixty (Alabama by a 'mere' 22), and the Tide beat MSU by 4 (Auburn by 3). Going into that game, Auburn needed only to win to head back to a second straight Sugar Bowl.
The 1984 Crimson Tide probably played its best game of the year that day - and even that nearly wasn't enough. Leading 17-7 in the fourth, the Crimson faithful gasped when Brent Fullwood rumbled sixty yards for a touchdown and Auburn then punched in the two-point conversion so that a field goal would win the game. In fact, it could be argued that this wasn't an upset so much as it was a complete brain fart on the part of Auburn Coach Pat Dye. After setting up the game-winning field goal, Auburn got a fumble in the Alabama red zone and closed in for the kill. They wound up with a fourth and goal at the one-yard line with about 3:27 or so left, the precise situation Dye had set up by going for two. For reasons that still don't really make much sense, Dye called for a running play to score a touchdown. The choice to play for an unnecessary touchdown was bad enough; the play call was reminiscent of the strange decisions that cost Alabama the 2012 ATM game. Despite having Bo Jackson in the backfield, Dye opted for a toss to Brent Fullwood. Rory Turner 'waxed the dude' and Alabama suddenly had the ball on its own one-yard line with a 17-15 lead.
Despite this, Auburn did get a chance at the end for a game-winning field goal kick, and Robert McGinty sent it only about 25 feet wide of the uprights. The pain of 1984 was over and Auburn was beaten by Alabama.
The 1984 game is the only one in my view that can properly be called an 'upset,' a situation where presumably the substantially superior team wins the loses to the demonstrably inferior opponent. And even in that one case, the upset owed as much to insanely stupid coaching decisions as it did to blocking and tackling. This game is the sole real 'proof' that any team can win this game; the evidence is simply lacking for all the hype you're gonna hear this next week. This is NOT a 'throw out the records' game and never has been.
(Btw - don't anybody write me with the cliched joke about how it's 'always and upset' when Alabama loses because 'I get upset.' I'm addressing the myth of the Iron Bowl.
PREDICTION?
Well, based on past performance (for whatever good that is), here are the common opponents this year:
1) LSU (Tide win by 14, Auburn loss by 24)
2) MSU (Tide win by 25, Auburn loss by 8)
3) Arkansas (Tide win by 13, Auburn loss by 8)
4) Georgia (Tide win by 28, Auburn loss by 7)
5) Texas A/M (Tide win by 18, Auburn win by 16)
6) Ole Miss (Tide loss by 6, Auburn loss by 8)
Four of the opponents are absolutely divergent - Tide kills same opponent that kills Auburn. The only two similarities are the Ole Miss and ATM games, and even those similarities are only in the final score. Ole Miss beat Alabama by six with the aid of five turnovers; they actually LOST the turnover battle to Auburn, 2-1, but still won the game.
5 turnovers and a six-point loss or -1 and an eight-point loss suggests a larger gulf than the final score. ATM is the only game suggesting the two teams might be even minimally even, and it's an outlier since there's turmoil in Aggie-land.
Alabama SHOULD win this game by at least 18 points - based on past trends of the game and similar stat evaluation. That's if we show up to play, which I think we will. In fact, I think the game yesterday was the right game at the right time.
RTR
I say, "Hogwash." You're gonna hear it a dozen times folks - and it is not true. In point of fact - as far as upsets - this rivalry is pretty much a total dud.
Since 1981, I've only missed three Iron Bowls on TV (well, four if you count me being in the stands in 2012) - 1982 (I lived in Germany and we didn't get it), 1993 (Auburn was on a TV ban), and 2006 (I went to a wedding for my sister-in-law's third marriage, and it lasted 11 months). And I'm well-read on the sport and the game and let me tell you - this game is won by the better team (or at least competitive team that executes well) 99.9% of the time.
The Iron Bowl really began its modern incarnation in 1948, when Alabama drilled 1-8-1 Auburn, 55-0. Not exactly a surprising result from a 5-4-1 Alabama team. Auburn won by a single point in 1949 in what might be called an upset if you set aside the fact that the reason Auburn had only two wins is because they also had three ties. From 1950-58, the team with the better record won every single time save the year 1953, when Alabama (6-3-3) beat Auburn (7-3-1), 10-7, which sounds about like what would be expected rather than some sort of upset.
Even in 1959, Coach Bryant's first win, it was 7-2-2 Alabama over 7-3 Auburn, a pretty even contest record-wise. Even the Tide's loss in 1963 was a two-loss Alabama losing to a two-loss Auburn, hardly a colossal upset at all.
So how many times has the demonstrably inferior team won the Iron Bowl since its renewal in 1947? Five? Eight? Ten? After all, we're told 'either team can win this regardless of the record' in hype form (not in literal form, which is obvious). How many times has a team with 3 more losses than the other team won the game? (I picked the number at random but that sounds reasonable since a 7-3 beating a 10-0 would be quite a level of upset back in the day).
Try never.
Now the modern era fan will insist that several of the games qualify as upsets, so I'm gonna look at those. Those games are from 1972, 1982, 1984, 2001, and 2002.
1972, of course, is the infamous Punt Bama Punt game. There is no need to go over the details as they were well-known by all fans. The popular story is that Alabama knocked Auburn all over the field because the Tigers couldn't move and then they blocked two punts in the waning moments and walked off with a 17-16 win. And to a large degree the story is true. However, what is often forgotten is that Auburn entered that game with an 8-1 record, their only loss to LSU. Alabama was undefeated, true, but a one-loss team beating an unbeaten in the final game can hardly be called an upset. Yes, Alabama outplayed Auburn, but the two teams were evenly matched and the one-loss team prevailed by a point. This hardly makes the case that 'anyone can win this one.'
1982 was Coach Bryant's final game and, in fact, Auburn's first victory in the series since the game covered above. Alabama well outplayed Auburn for the first 51 minutes of the game. In fact, Auburn only had 132 yards of offense entering the fourth quarter. Auburn put it all together and handed Alabama (and Coach Bryant) their third loss in a row to end the 1982 season, 23-22. It was stunning at the time but really should not have been. Auburn's only losses entering the game were to national title contender Nebraska, a two-point loss to 8-4 Florida and a five-point controversial loss to Georgia in Herschel Walker's last SEC game. Alabama, meanwhile, had just lost to Tennessee and LSU for the first time since 1970 and been slapped around brutally by Southern Miss to end an 18-year home winning streak.
The result was a surprise but could hardly be called an upset. A team with narrow losses to highly ranked teams edged a team teetering on the brink of major problems. Not an upset by any stretch.
2001 was overshadowed as were the entire final months of the year by the 9/11 tragedy. Entering the Iron Bowl, Auburn had the inside track, a 7-2 record and leading the SEC West. The two teams squared off on November 17 (rather early for recent Iron Bowls) when Alabama had a 4-5 record and Auburn was the expected favorite. Alabama went out and not only beat Auburn, they sandblasted them, 31-7. It was considered a huge upset at the time and meets the criteria - a team with three more losses beats the favorite.
But was it? It was covered as so but as events unfolded, it really wasn't. As amazing as it may seem, Auburn and Alabama ended 2001 with the exact same record of 7-5. After losing to Alabama, Auburn faced off against LSU in the make-up game scheduled for 9/16 (the games the weekend after 9/11 were all postponed immediately). LSU ripped Auburn, 27-14, and they then got creamed by North Carolina in the bowl game, 21-6. In fact, if you go examine 2001 Auburn closely, you'll find something amazing on their offensive point totals: 27, 24, 16, 23, 17, 24, 7, 14. Those are their point totals for SEC games that year. Their 24 barely beat Vandy (by the same three-point margin as Alabama did that same year), their 16 beat Miss State by two (Tide won by 7), and their 23 somehow beat Florida (probably the main reason they were the IB favorite) and 24 beat Georgia. But when you look at common opponents, you have to seriously question why anyone even thought Auburn would win the game
1) VANDY (Tide by 3, Auburn by 3)
2) Arkansas (Tide by 21, Auburn lost by 25)
3) Ole Miss (Tide lost by 3, Auburn win by 6)
And then after the Iron Bowl was the LSU game, who beat us by 14 and Auburn by 13.
This game is another that was considered an upset at the time but really wasn't. Alabama got going better as the season went along and Auburn got worse. Given that the Iron Bowl is played late in the year.......
2002 - this loss might stick in my craw worse than any other game we've ever played. Alabama went into the game as a huge favorite, so much so that Bo Jackson was called in to stir up the faithful, telling the team that nobody was giving them a chance to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Auburn responded with a 17-7 win that felt more like 47-7. Alabama went through the motions much as we had in 2000 with a much worse team. It featured 7-4 Auburn beating 9-2 Alabama, who had only lost to national contender OU in September (and earned national respect with a great comeback in Norman) and lost on the final play to SEC champions UGA in October.
But here's a better question - why was Alabama such a huge favorite in the first place? Yes, Auburn had four losses. But USC was becoming a dynasty (they went 11-2 with the Heisman winner that year) while it is often forgotten that Auburn lost to UGA by THREE points (the Tide lost by 2). In fact, look at common opponents yet again:
1) Vandy (Auburn by 25, Alabama by 22)
2) Miss St (Auburn by 28, Alabama by 14)
3) Arkansas (Auburn LOST by 21, Alabama WON by 18)
4) LSU (Auburn by 24, Alabama by 31)
5) Ole Miss (Auburn by 7, Alabama by 35)
6) Georgia (Auburn loss by 2, Alabama loss by 3)
So the two teams beat Vandy and LSU about the same, lost to UGA about the same, and each one dominated a different Mississippi team more than the other. Only the Arkansas game suggested Auburn was overmatched by Alabama.
And then there's the other stuff that makes this game a complete outlier anyway. It later came out that Coach Dennis Franchione had spent much of the final six weeks as head coach plotting his exit strategy from Tuscaloosa, and the football team played exactly as if Franchione had not gone over a single game plan. Never before or since have I actually wondered if a game was thrown by one of the teams (oops - OU sure did throw that 2011 Bedlam game like nobody's business).
But even with the feeling at the time, you'd be hard-pressed to 'really 'call this any sort of upset. The common opponents (and they had six of them) suggest that whatever shenanigans Franchione was up to hurt a team that was already going to be in for a tough game anyway, certainly tougher than press coverage suggested. Thus, even if we wish to say 2002 was a real upset, it is tainted with outside distractions that don't apply to any other Iron Bowl in history.
And that brings us to the only REAL upset in the Iron Bowl since 1948, the shocking 1984 triumph of 4-6 Alabama over Sugar Bowl contender Auburn at Legion Field on December 1 by a score of 17-15. I'm willing to classify this ONE contest as a genuine upset. Auburn began the year at #1 and played a VERY challenging schedule (as did Alabama, whose schedule was even tougher). They narrowly lost to Miami and then to Texas and their Heisman candidate Bo Jackson got hurt and was on the shelf for six games. Without Bo, Auburn's high-octane offense still managed to put up 42 points on Florida State and 48 on Georgia Tech. A look at common opponents shows that Auburn beat UGA by 9 (Tide lost by 10 and game wasn't even really that close), routed Ga Tech by 24 (Tide lost by 10 in another game that wasn't even that close), beat Cincinnati by sixty (Alabama by a 'mere' 22), and the Tide beat MSU by 4 (Auburn by 3). Going into that game, Auburn needed only to win to head back to a second straight Sugar Bowl.
The 1984 Crimson Tide probably played its best game of the year that day - and even that nearly wasn't enough. Leading 17-7 in the fourth, the Crimson faithful gasped when Brent Fullwood rumbled sixty yards for a touchdown and Auburn then punched in the two-point conversion so that a field goal would win the game. In fact, it could be argued that this wasn't an upset so much as it was a complete brain fart on the part of Auburn Coach Pat Dye. After setting up the game-winning field goal, Auburn got a fumble in the Alabama red zone and closed in for the kill. They wound up with a fourth and goal at the one-yard line with about 3:27 or so left, the precise situation Dye had set up by going for two. For reasons that still don't really make much sense, Dye called for a running play to score a touchdown. The choice to play for an unnecessary touchdown was bad enough; the play call was reminiscent of the strange decisions that cost Alabama the 2012 ATM game. Despite having Bo Jackson in the backfield, Dye opted for a toss to Brent Fullwood. Rory Turner 'waxed the dude' and Alabama suddenly had the ball on its own one-yard line with a 17-15 lead.
Despite this, Auburn did get a chance at the end for a game-winning field goal kick, and Robert McGinty sent it only about 25 feet wide of the uprights. The pain of 1984 was over and Auburn was beaten by Alabama.
The 1984 game is the only one in my view that can properly be called an 'upset,' a situation where presumably the substantially superior team wins the loses to the demonstrably inferior opponent. And even in that one case, the upset owed as much to insanely stupid coaching decisions as it did to blocking and tackling. This game is the sole real 'proof' that any team can win this game; the evidence is simply lacking for all the hype you're gonna hear this next week. This is NOT a 'throw out the records' game and never has been.
(Btw - don't anybody write me with the cliched joke about how it's 'always and upset' when Alabama loses because 'I get upset.' I'm addressing the myth of the Iron Bowl.
PREDICTION?
Well, based on past performance (for whatever good that is), here are the common opponents this year:
1) LSU (Tide win by 14, Auburn loss by 24)
2) MSU (Tide win by 25, Auburn loss by 8)
3) Arkansas (Tide win by 13, Auburn loss by 8)
4) Georgia (Tide win by 28, Auburn loss by 7)
5) Texas A/M (Tide win by 18, Auburn win by 16)
6) Ole Miss (Tide loss by 6, Auburn loss by 8)
Four of the opponents are absolutely divergent - Tide kills same opponent that kills Auburn. The only two similarities are the Ole Miss and ATM games, and even those similarities are only in the final score. Ole Miss beat Alabama by six with the aid of five turnovers; they actually LOST the turnover battle to Auburn, 2-1, but still won the game.
5 turnovers and a six-point loss or -1 and an eight-point loss suggests a larger gulf than the final score. ATM is the only game suggesting the two teams might be even minimally even, and it's an outlier since there's turmoil in Aggie-land.
Alabama SHOULD win this game by at least 18 points - based on past trends of the game and similar stat evaluation. That's if we show up to play, which I think we will. In fact, I think the game yesterday was the right game at the right time.
RTR