People say "OU has changed since the Texas game"

GeorgiaTider

All-SEC
Oct 30, 2005
1,565
24
57
62
I think that the best way to measure relative strengths of teams is to look at how well the teams that they play against perform vs. their average production. Team "Z" scores 40 PPG, but against Alabama they only scored 25 points - Alabama held team "Z" 15 points below their average.

Over the course of a season you can produce a reliable metric that you can apply to possible future opponents on offense and defense. I haven't done this yet, but will do this once the playoff is set. It doesn't take into account anomalies that happen that break down the norm (2 punt returns for TDs in a game when a team has otherwise not allowed this sort of thing to happen would wreck this, for instance), but it accounts for most differences assuming the sample size is adequate.

You have to be sure to account for similarities in offensive schemes. For instance, if a potential opponent runs a spread offense, you would only include past spread offenses faced in the formula. Same used to apply to defensive schemes, but much less so today.
I agree. There is no real matrix to use, but this one is pretty good.
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
0
I think that the best way to measure relative strengths of teams is to look at how well the teams that they play against perform vs. their average production. Team "Z" scores 40 PPG, but against Alabama they only scored 25 points - Alabama held team "Z" 15 points below their average.
This is essentially what the computer power rankings do I think. I think an algorithm like Sagarin just uses scoring offense and scoring defense. And over time it gets pretty accurate.

It is interesting, in Sagarin's algorithm Alabama and OU are ranked 1 and 2. We flip between 1 and 2 in his different methodologies. In his predictor, we are both about 4-5 points better than the next grouping of teams (Ohio State, Clemson, Baylor.)

It is pretty interesting to see how closely algorithms that just analyze scoring vs algorithms that analyze play-by-play efficiency start to match up at this point in the season regarding who the best teams are.
 

Ldlane

Hall of Fame
Nov 26, 2002
14,253
398
102
I still think there should be an RPI metric like in basketball. It's not perfect, but it is unforgiving if you schedule weak teams and beat the 50-0.
I think that the best way to measure relative strengths of teams is to look at how well the teams that they play against perform vs. their average production. Team "Z" scores 40 PPG, but against Alabama they only scored 25 points - Alabama held team "Z" 15 points below their average.

Over the course of a season you can produce a reliable metric that you can apply to possible future opponents on offense and defense. I haven't done this yet, but will do this once the playoff is set. It doesn't take into account anomalies that happen that break down the norm (2 punt returns for TDs in a game when a team has otherwise not allowed this sort of thing to happen would wreck this, for instance), but it accounts for most differences assuming the sample size is adequate.

You have to be sure to account for similarities in offensive schemes. For instance, if a potential opponent runs a spread offense, you would only include past spread offenses faced in the formula. Same used to apply to defensive schemes, but much less so today.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
I really think the ideal playoff system is:

8 teams

Create a BCS-like metric for ranking the teams

The 5 power conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big-12, Pac-12, SEC) get an automatic bid into the bracket if their conference champion is in the top 10 in the final metric ranking after championship Saturday.

The remaining three slots are determined by a 12 person committee using the metric rankings as a guideline but not the sole selector (strength of schedule, quality wins, etc are considered).


So theoretically, you would have 3 at-large bids if all the conference champions are in the top 10 but it could be 4+ at large openings in some seasons.
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,481
46,794
187
The record for all Alabama's opponents is 80-40. Oklahoma is 67-65. What does that say? :)
On the surface it seems to say a lot, but you have to dig deeper to get anything real - like, what were the records of the teams that those teams played? A team can be 11-1 and have beaten nobody while another can be 7-5 and have faced some really tough competition.
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,481
46,794
187
I really think the ideal playoff system is:

8 teams

Create a BCS-like metric for ranking the teams

The 5 power conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big-12, Pac-12, SEC) get an automatic bid .
No automatic bids - period. If USC wins on Saturday they will be the PAC champion with 4 losses. This happens in at least one P5 conference almost every year.
 

UntouchableCrew

All-SEC
Nov 30, 2015
1,530
338
102
The record for all Alabama's opponents is 80-40. Oklahoma is 67-65. What does that say? :)
That you're counting the 9-2 record of FCS Charleston Southern as equal to that of the three FBS teams Oklahoma played in non-conference? I keed, I keed...

But considering Oklahoma plays 9 conference games it's hard to knock their non conference schedule... Two group of 5s and Tennessee... Since they all play each other and only get three non-conference they're gonna beat each other up... Kansas being a complete and total disgrace disproportionately hurts the Big 12 strength of schedule a lot, too.

Alabama clearly has had a tougher schedule, but I don't think it's as lopsided as the records would indicate.
 

UntouchableCrew

All-SEC
Nov 30, 2015
1,530
338
102
No automatic bids - period. If USC wins on Saturday they will be the PAC champion with 4 losses. This happens in at least one P5 conference almost every year.
I don't know if he edited his post after you quoted him but I think "automatic as long as they're in the top 10" is completely reasonable. I might even extend that to top 15... No team with 4 losses is going to be ranked that high, and given the different field of competition in each of the Power 5 conferences I think that's the way to do it.
 

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
No automatic bids - period. If USC wins on Saturday they will be the PAC champion with 4 losses. This happens in at least one P5 conference almost every year.
That is why the autobids have the top-10 qualifier in The RGW Plan. If you win your conference and the metrics say you're top 10 then you get the benefit of the doubt.
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,481
46,794
187
I don't know if he edited his post after you quoted him but I think "automatic as long as they're in the top 10" is completely reasonable. I might even extend that to top 15... No team with 4 losses is going to be ranked that high, and given the different field of competition in each of the Power 5 conferences I think that's the way to do it.
I agree - I think I jumped too soon, though I would limit it to the top 10-12.
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
29,730
287
54
I think that the best way to measure relative strengths of teams is to look at how well the teams that they play against perform vs. their average production. Team "Z" scores 40 PPG, but against Alabama they only scored 25 points - Alabama held team "Z" 15 points below their average.

Over the course of a season you can produce a reliable metric that you can apply to possible future opponents on offense and defense. I haven't done this yet, but will do this once the playoff is set. It doesn't take into account anomalies that happen that break down the norm (2 punt returns for TDs in a game when a team has otherwise not allowed this sort of thing to happen would wreck this, for instance), but it accounts for most differences assuming the sample size is adequate.

You have to be sure to account for similarities in offensive schemes. For instance, if a potential opponent runs a spread offense, you would only include past spread offenses faced in the formula. Same used to apply to defensive schemes, but much less so today.
This, in essence, is how I try to evaluate it. I did this with Notre Dame a few years back and came to the conclusion that if the game was simply played on paper, we'd absolutely kill them. That does not take into account human factors like stupid penalties, turnovers, or the starting QB breaking up with his girlfriend three nights before the game (or God forbid finding out his girlfriend never existed, but now I'm being facetious since that could never happen).

It's also why I want to look at it closer after the Florida game.

Here's one that stood out at me today:

Alabama has the #1 rated rushing defense - opponents have rushed 383 times for 947 yards, an average of 78.9 ypg.
Oklahoma has the #46 rated rushing defense - opponents have rushed 494 times (116 more) for 1790 yards, an average of 149.2 ypg.

Basically, OU gives up twice as many rushing yards as we do, which when you consider they play in a pass happy conference that chunks the ball about 3 out of every five plays is astounding. We have faced (including Florida) FIVE rushing defenses better than Oklahoma:

Wisconsin - 97.9 (we got 238)
Florida - 111.3 (NO DATA YET)
Arkansas - 119.6 (we got 134)
LSU - 131.5 ypg (we got 250)
Ole Miss - 132.4 ypg (we got 215, which considering how far we got behind is nothing short of amazing)

So of the five defenses we faced BETTER than OU against the run (on paper, mind you), we EXCEEDED the average ypg those team allow, three times substantially and one time marginally (one has yet to be determined, but I'll bet you Derrick Henry rushes for more than 111 yards against Florida by himself).

Furthermore, there is some credence to the 'weaker schedule' argument because OU rushed for 2,820 yards in 12 games this year, an average of 235 (Alabama's average was 206) BUT.....nearly half that total came from FOUR GAMES:

Texas Tech 405
Kansas 265
TCU 333
Okie St 344

Total: 1,347

All against teams with lousy rushing defenses. On the flip side, OU did rush for 161 yards against Tennessee.....Alabama only rushed for 117. The obvious Alabama counter is to say, "But it took them double overtime to get that" - true, but they only rushed for 13 yards in two overtimes. On the other hand, Jake Coker had a better passing day against the Vols than Mayfield did (187 yards).

You cannot take the total numbers on points or yards because the data can skewed by outliers. For example, Alabama shows up with a bunch of ppg BUT......subtract the 55 against Charleston Southern and it drops considerably. When I examine the data, I try to at least make it a look at the 'norm' of what is to be expected.



One final thing: some of the Alabama fans here saying OU has NOT improved since the Vols game are the same folks who will insist Alabama HAS improved since the Ole Miss game.

Don't hang your hat on September - the Ohio State Buckeyes lost to Virginia Tech last September and then turned right around and whipped both us and Oregon despite a plethora of turnovers.


Speaking of that, both OU and UA have 16 turnovers on the year.


One positive on our side? Since on average we have been exceeding the averages by a good 70 yards per game rushing.......I think if Derrick Henry rushes for the OU average plus 70 (that would give us 219 yards rushing).........and our Defense holds them 110 (which would be quite above our usual average).......I like Alabama's chances in that scenario.

Turnovers decided the Sugar Bowl a few years back and turnovers will decide this one. Ftr - I also look at 1st and 2nd half to take adjustments into account. This has been a Stoops weakness in prior years, but I don't enter the evaluation looking for justification for an opinion, I draw the conclusion from the extant data.
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
0
The record for all Alabama's opponents is 80-40. Oklahoma is 67-65. What does that say? :)
It says I sure wish we could have swapped you Kansas for Charleston Southern to even up our schedule strength!

Alabama has had a tougher schedule this year....But this isn't a very good way to illustrate it, IMO....And it isn't like OU has played an Iowaesqu schedule.
 

deliveryman35

Hall of Fame
Jul 26, 2003
12,997
1,194
287
55
Gadsden, AL
It says I sure wish we could have swapped you Kansas for Charleston Southern to even up our schedule strength!

Alabama has had a tougher schedule this year....But this isn't a very good way to illustrate it, IMO....And it isn't like OU has played an Iowaesqu schedule.
Thanks for joining the board. I think you'll find good, intelligent football discussion here without the immature smack like you see on Soonerfans.com and perhaps other Bama discussion boards. Your post about the stats was really informative and a compelling, reasonable argument.
 
Last edited:

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
0
Thanks for joining the board. I think you'll find good, intelligent football discussion here without the immature smack like you see on Soonerfans.com and perhaps other Bama discussion boards. Your post about the stats was really informative and a compelling, reasonable argument.
Thanks for all of you being so welcoming...I've got nothing but respect for Alabama and its fans...
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
0
Basically, OU gives up twice as many rushing yards as we do, which when you consider they play in a pass happy conference that chunks the ball about 3 out of every five plays is astounding.
I'm not sure your impression of Big 12 rushing offenses is accurate.

Take a look a rushing stats:

6 of 10 Big12 teams rush for over 200 ypg....That is compared with just 3 of 14 SEC teams who put up as big rushing numbers.

Of those 6 Big12 teams, 5 have very serious passing attacks to go along with big rushing numbers.

The relative quality of offense to defense in the Big12 vs. SEC are just so different that it makes comparisons difficult.
 

TideFan in AU

Hall of Fame
The problem is with OU that there no metric that accounts for OU facing Baylor, TCU, (who both had Heisman caliber QBs) and OSU with backup QBs. TCU barely beat Kansas without Boykin, and OU beat them by a point in game that could have went either way. Jarrett Stidham played decent for a true Freshman, but we'll never know if Baylor wasn't better than the 10 points OU beat them by with Seth Russell. This of course is no fault of OU's, but I think it's fair to say that these 3 teams would have been better with their starting QBs. If OU had beat Baylor, TCU, and OSU with their starting QB's, you'd have to say they had the best resume of any team in the playoff.

We are going to be facing Florida with Treon Harris in SECCG, but there's no doubt that Florida would be a much tougher game with Will Grier playing. We aren't getting a chance to play same Florida that smashed Ole Miss in week 5.

I think OU is a good team, but I'm not sure if they are as good their record indicates. The good thing is if we take of business, we'll find out. :)
 

deliveryman35

Hall of Fame
Jul 26, 2003
12,997
1,194
287
55
Gadsden, AL
Ok
The problem is with OU that there no metric that accounts for OU facing Baylor, TCU, (who both had Heisman caliber QBs) and OSU with backup QBs. TCU barely beat Kansas without Boykin, and OU beat them by a point in game that could have went either way. Jarrett Stidham played decent for a true Freshman, but we'll never know if Baylor wasn't better than the 10 points OU beat them by with Seth Russell. This of course is no fault of OU's, but I think it's fair to say that these 3 teams would have been better with their starting QBs. If OU had beat Baylor, TCU, and OSU with their starting QB's, you'd have to say they had the best resume of any team in the playoff.

We are going to be facing Florida with Treon Harris in SECCG, but there's no doubt that Florida would be a much tougher game with Will Grier playing. We aren't getting a chance to play same Florida that smashed Ole Miss in week 5.

I think OU is a good team, but I'm not sure if they are as good their record indicates. The good thing is if we take of business, we'll find out. :)
Very valid point.
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
29,730
287
54
I'm not sure your impression of Big 12 rushing offenses is accurate.

Take a look a rushing stats:

6 of 10 Big12 teams rush for over 200 ypg....That is compared with just 3 of 14 SEC teams who put up as big rushing numbers.

Of those 6 Big12 teams, 5 have very serious passing attacks to go along with big rushing numbers.

The relative quality of offense to defense in the Big12 vs. SEC are just so different that it makes comparisons difficult.
We are in agreement of the difficulty of comparison. One conference runs mostly, the other plays flag football for the most part - although OU is among the more balanced teams and always has been (Texas, too).

You wanna know why most folks here don't have much regard for the Big 12? Simply compare the out of conference schedules top to bottom. I exclude OU because they - along with Alabama, LSU, Texas, and a few others - schedule challenging OOC games, usually early to find out what they're made of.

Baylor has become every bit as slick as Arkansas is at playing the cupcake scheduling game. Baylor lines up against the likes of Lamar, SMU, and Rice and runs up 56, 66, and 70 points a game, which inflates their numbers for the year. Throw in Kansas and Iowa State and a MEDIOCRE Baylor is at five wins right there.

Year after year after year we hear it. And year after year after year the SEC generally rolls the Big 12 in bowl games. Everyone locked in on TCU 42 Ole Miss 3 last year. You never hear that that was the ONLY game out of four that the Big 12 beat the SEC:

2014
Alabama 33 WVA 23
Auburn 20 K-State 14
Arkansas 49 Texas Tech 28
TCU 42 Ole Miss 3

This year, the Big 12 is 2-0 versus the SEC, with your win over Tenn and Tech's win over Arky.

Now, we won't apply this to OU, there's a lot of history and respect in the rivalry. Simply going gut feeling right now, I'd actually have to call it a toss-up or possibly a lean to Oklahoma at this point. But by the same token - you're talking to fans who have seen this pony show too many times and how it always ends the same way when the big ring is up for grabs.

Let me be clear as well - the SEC top to bottom is not, in fact, very good at all this year.

On the flip side, one must wonder how SEC defenses that faced Leonard Fournette and/or Derrick Henry can rate so highly against the run.
 

Latest threads

TideFans.shop : 2024 Madness!

TideFans.shop - Get YOUR Bama Gear HERE!”></a>
<br />

<!--/ END TideFans.shop & item link \-->
<p style= Purchases made through our TideFans.shop and Amazon.com links may result in a commission being paid to TideFans.