I think that the best way to measure relative strengths of teams is to look at how well the teams that they play against perform vs. their average production. Team "Z" scores 40 PPG, but against Alabama they only scored 25 points - Alabama held team "Z" 15 points below their average.
Over the course of a season you can produce a reliable metric that you can apply to possible future opponents on offense and defense. I haven't done this yet, but will do this once the playoff is set. It doesn't take into account anomalies that happen that break down the norm (2 punt returns for TDs in a game when a team has otherwise not allowed this sort of thing to happen would wreck this, for instance), but it accounts for most differences assuming the sample size is adequate.
You have to be sure to account for similarities in offensive schemes. For instance, if a potential opponent runs a spread offense, you would only include past spread offenses faced in the formula. Same used to apply to defensive schemes, but much less so today.
This, in essence, is how I try to evaluate it. I did this with Notre Dame a few years back and came to the conclusion that if the game was simply played on paper, we'd absolutely kill them. That does not take into account human factors like stupid penalties, turnovers, or the starting QB breaking up with his girlfriend three nights before the game (or God forbid finding out his girlfriend never existed, but now I'm being facetious
since that could never happen).
It's also why I want to look at it closer after the Florida game.
Here's one that stood out at me today:
Alabama has the #1 rated rushing defense - opponents have rushed 383 times for 947 yards, an average of 78.9 ypg.
Oklahoma has the #46 rated rushing defense - opponents have rushed 494 times (116 more) for 1790 yards, an average of 149.2 ypg.
Basically, OU gives up twice as many rushing yards as we do, which when you consider they play in a pass happy conference that chunks the ball about 3 out of every five plays is astounding. We have faced (including Florida) FIVE rushing defenses better than Oklahoma:
Wisconsin - 97.9 (we got 238)
Florida - 111.3 (NO DATA YET)
Arkansas - 119.6 (we got 134)
LSU - 131.5 ypg (we got 250)
Ole Miss - 132.4 ypg (we got 215, which considering how far we got behind is nothing short of amazing)
So of the five defenses we faced BETTER than OU against the run (on paper, mind you), we EXCEEDED the average ypg those team allow, three times substantially and one time marginally (one has yet to be determined, but I'll bet you Derrick Henry rushes for more than 111 yards against Florida by himself).
Furthermore, there is some credence to the 'weaker schedule' argument because OU rushed for 2,820 yards in 12 games this year, an average of 235 (Alabama's average was 206) BUT.....nearly half that total came from FOUR GAMES:
Texas Tech 405
Kansas 265
TCU 333
Okie St 344
Total: 1,347
All against teams with lousy rushing defenses. On the flip side, OU did rush for 161 yards against Tennessee.....Alabama only rushed for 117. The obvious Alabama counter is to say, "But it took them double overtime to get that" - true, but they only rushed for 13 yards in two overtimes. On the other hand, Jake Coker had a better passing day against the Vols than Mayfield did (187 yards).
You cannot take the total numbers on points or yards because the data can skewed by outliers. For example, Alabama shows up with a bunch of ppg BUT......subtract the 55 against Charleston Southern and it drops considerably. When I examine the data, I try to at least make it a look at the 'norm' of what is to be expected.
One final thing: some of the Alabama fans here saying OU has NOT improved since the Vols game are the same folks who will insist Alabama HAS improved since the Ole Miss game.
Don't hang your hat on September - the Ohio State Buckeyes lost to Virginia Tech last September and then turned right around and whipped both us and Oregon despite a plethora of turnovers.
Speaking of that, both OU and UA have 16 turnovers on the year.
One positive on our side? Since on average we have been exceeding the averages by a good 70 yards per game rushing.......I think if Derrick Henry rushes for the OU average plus 70 (that would give us 219 yards rushing).........and our Defense holds them 110 (which would be quite above our usual average).......I like Alabama's chances in that scenario.
Turnovers decided the Sugar Bowl a few years back and turnovers will decide this one. Ftr - I also look at 1st and 2nd half to take adjustments into account. This has been a Stoops weakness in prior years, but I don't enter the evaluation looking for justification for an opinion, I draw the conclusion from the extant data.