People say "OU has changed since the Texas game"

TideFan in AU

Hall of Fame
I hate OU and their little wagon! Feel better now!
LOL! You may be happy to learn that OU is ranked 113th in sacks allowed this year, allowing 38 sacks on the year. Baker Mayfield is also 6' 1".

Bama happens to be 3rd the nation sacks with 41, and Bama leads the nation batted passes by the DL. Bama also has 15 different players with sacks recorded this year, so it's not like you can focus one or 2 guys.

I think these are statistics that favor us tremendously.
 

jef0071

Suspended
Dec 19, 2005
511
0
0
52
Hewitt, Texas, United States
ummmmm, they played tcu, baylor, and osu...but all 3 of them teams were without their starting qb. if baylor's starter or tcu's starter plays in them games...OU loses both of them and is a 3 loss team
 

BamaSC

All-SEC
Oct 17, 1999
1,840
262
207
Chapin, SC
If Bama plays OU this year, falls behind and has to drop back and pass with our OL issues, we're in deep doo-doo. If OU falls behind, has to drop back and pass against our pass rush, they're in deep doo-doo. If it stays close, I like our chances with our defense and running game.
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
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I can understand skepticism of a league with basketball scores that has lost a bunch of traditional powers, a championship game and now has a bunch of non-traditional teams ascending.


But I think most of the criticisms of the Big12 are inaccurate and provincial, and fail to recognize the current strength of the league.


Most of the SEC chest thumping beyond Alabama is, IMO, bogus.


Alabama is the tentpole program of the SEC, and always have been. When Alabama wasn’t great in the early 2000s, the SEC wasn’t perceived as dominant. But now that Alabama is in the midst of the greatest dynasty of the modern era (and arguably greatest all time), that tentpole causes false perceptions of the rest of the conference.


Don’t get me wrong - Alabama plays in the best division in cfb, and plays top-tier schedules every year. That is one of the things that makes Alabama’s dynasty unique. In addition to the best division, Alabama plays Tenn, the most storied program in the weaker division every year, and schedules credible OOC games. The result is Alabama typically has a top-10 quality schedule, and often has the best schedule of all contenders (as they do again this year.)


But other SEC teams don’t deserve extra credit for being Alabama’s rival.


Baylor schedules weak OOC games…But look at Georgia and Kentucky and Texas A&M. Sagarin ranks Georgia’s schedule worse than Baylor’s. Meanwhile it ranks Texas A&M as middle-of-the-road by Bg12 standards. Texas, Iowa State and Kansas schedules are ranked 1-2-3. So there is little truth to the idea that being in the SEC implies a hard schedule while being in the Big12 implies a weak schedule.


All teams are connected by performance data, and it is far more accurate to look at this data in total, rather than looking at results of individual games that suit our own prejudices. The fact that the Big12 is 2-0 vs SEC this year is meaningless compared to Sagarin’s conference rankings algorithm that take into account 1000s of games rather than 2. Sagarin currently says the SEC West is the best league in football, followed by the Big12. This is not unusual - the SEC West has nearly always been at the top recently, with the Big12 not too far behind.


Don’t get me wrong - the SEC is a good league even without a dominant Alabama. But Alabama is really the tentpole, and it seems most other SEC fans think that being a rival of Alabama makes them (and their schedules) better than they are. Sometimes Alabama fans get caught up in imagining the same thing. Alabama plays a legit, tough game nearly every week. But there is a big difference between being a good team capable of playing the spoiler to a dynastic monster, and being a legitimately elite team.


Most of the SEC teams besides Alabama that won titles recently got lucky.


If you look at Auburn’s 2010 title objectively - it was a fluke. They were the only team in the BCS era to make a championship game without legit top-10 quality defense, and their defense wasn’t even top-40. If you look at ESPN’s efficiency matrices, they were the 7th best team that year, and their overall quality was much lower than other champions. Performance data screams that 2010 Auburn is the weakest champion of the BCS era by a good measure…They were essentially a mediocre team with an out-of-this-world QB that got very lucky.


Of course Auburn deserved the title in 2010 for going 14-0…As did Florida in 2006 and LSU in 2007. But in all of those years, an SEC team won despite unimpressive performance data relative to other champions - or even relative to other elite teams that fell just short of winning a title….In fact, when you crunch the performance data, it is pretty clear that none of these champions were actually as good as the 2013 Alabama team that lost its last two games to inferior opponents. Sometimes the best team doesn't win, and luck can play a role - both good and bad.


All of Alabama’s championship teams (in addition to 2008 Florida) are ranked at the top of ESPN’s efficiency matrices in their year, and have overall scores much higher than these weaker champions.


The Big12 does not have an Alabama. But if Alabama had been in the Big12 during Saban’s dynasty, Alabama would have still played top-tier schedules, and the Big12 would be perceived as the top league, IMO.


The thing, IMO, that makes the Big12 special right now is that there is a higher density of top quality coaches than any other league. I think Stoops, Patterson and Briles are all top-10 coaches. TCU’s win over Ole Miss last year is just one game and doesn’t prove a lot about the relative strength of the leagues….But I do think it proved (when combined with their season overall) that TCU was a legitimately elite team, and could have potentially won the title if they made the playoff.


Bill Snyder is of course a hall-of-famer. I also think Gundy is a great, underrated coach. There isn’t a person in Stillwater who would want Les Miles back over him. He hasn’t won a title, but he has produced teams that grade out better than most of the non-Alabama SEC champions.


A ten-team league with that many good coaches is a tough league to play in. I’m not saying it is as good as the SEC West. But the difference between a Big12 schedule and an SEC West schedule is going to have more to do with the quality of OOC competition scheduled than anything else.
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,481
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But the difference between a Big12 schedule and an SEC West schedule is going to have more to do with the quality of OOC competition scheduled than anything else.
:conf2:

I don't disagree with much in your post, and then you ended with this. If this is where all of that other stuff takes you, you aren't looking deeply enough. Other than OU this year, I would take ANY team in the SECw vs the Big 12. Any team.
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
0
:conf2:

I don't disagree with much in your post, and then you ended with this. If this is where all of that other stuff takes you, you aren't looking deeply enough. Other than OU this year, I would take ANY team in the SECw vs the Big 12. Any team.
So how much money did you lose on Arkansas-Tech?

There is no way to pretend that Texas A&M played a tougher schedule this year than Taxas did, unless you have been taking math classes from that OSU player who claimed that Alabama's schedule was weak....
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
0
I guess that you believe that TTech is better than Arkansas? Because no one else does - outside of Lubbock.
No I don't believe Tech is better. But I don't think the algorithms that rank Arkansas over Tech despite head-to-head results are somehow bias against the SEC West.

I think it is homer logic to imagine that computer algorithms that rank teams based on performance data are bias against a particular league.
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,481
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No I don't believe Tech is better. But I don't think the algorithms that rank Arkansas over Tech despite head-to-head results are somehow bias against the SEC West.

I think it is homer logic to imagine that computer algorithms that rank teams based on performance data are bias against a particular league.
Formulas aside - I have watched these teams play. Arkansas would probably beat any team in the Big 12 other than the Sooners. TCU, OSU and Baylor are half teams. They lose when they can't score 40+ points. Only the Sooners play defense. All of the teams in the SECw have solid offensive and defensive squads. They can win a 45-40 game or a 17-14 game.
 

RTR91

Super Moderator
Nov 23, 2007
39,407
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Prattville
The SEC West has seven teams. All seven are ranked in the top 39 in Sagarin's rankings.

The Big 12 has Kansas State (55), Texas (61), Iowa State (63) and Kansas (149) behind the SEC West.

The SEC West schedule ranking according to Sagarin:

Alabama (5)
Ole Miss (22)
LSU (8)
Arkansas (6)
Mississippi State (28)
Texas A&M (34)
Auburn (11)

Average ranking: 16.3

Big 12 schedule ranking according to Sagarin:

Oklahoma (20)
Baylor (58)
TCU (36)
Oklahoma State (37)
West Virginia (38)
Texas Tech (15)
Kansas State (40)
Texas (3)
Iowa State (1)
Kansas (2)

Average ranking: 25
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
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Only the Sooners play defense. All of the teams in the SECw have solid offensive and defensive squads. They can win a 45-40 game or a 17-14 game.
Watching the Ole Miss-Arkansas game, i thought I was watching the Big12 for a minute! I'm not at all sold on Arkansas' defense.

Patterson is a great defensive coach, and TCU plays great defense, but they lost like 7 starters early in the season. I think they would have been the best team in the Big12 if they hadn't been so decimated by injuries this year.
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
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Watching the Ole Miss-Arkansas game, i thought I was watching the Big12 for a minute! I'm not at all sold on Arkansas' defense.

Patterson is a great defensive coach, and TCU plays great defense, but they lost like 7 starters early in the season. I think they would have been the best team in the Big12 if they hadn't been so decimated by injuries this year.
Arkansas struggles against the pass, and Auburn/aTm struggle against the run. Big 12 teams just plain struggle, pass or run. You guys have receivers running down the field totally uncovered on almost every play. That just doesn't happen in the SEC.

I agree that TCU is generally better on defense - was talking about this year. This year, the only team in the Big 12 playing defense is Oklahoma. I am happy for you. I really like the Sooners (your head coach is a jerk, but so is mine :wink:).
 

wishbonesooner

1st Team
Jun 26, 2001
896
551
212
Shawnee, OK USA
Having a month to game plan is a little different than playing these wide open offenses week after week. I will say the bottom dwellers of the Big 12 are way worse than the lower tier teams of the SEC this year. Way worse.
 

CoreGroup

1st Team
Nov 19, 2013
670
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Dothan, Al
Back to creating metrics would you discard freak plays like a ball bouncing off a helmet and going for a td or say a tight end throwing the ball over his shoulder and getting a lucky bounce right into his starting running back's hands or would you include those?
 

81usaf92

TideFans Legend
Apr 26, 2008
35,295
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South Alabama
I've always felt that under stoops Oklahoma is the only semi complete team in the big 12, but always seems to find a way to lose to Texas or Baylor in the most inopportune time of the season. As far as the potential matchup, I really feel like I did about the semi final matchup last year in that the winner will most likely win the title. I just don't buy Clemson or MSU as much as bama and ou.
 

GratefulSooner

BamaNation Citizen
Nov 30, 2015
28
0
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Back to creating metrics would you discard freak plays like a ball bouncing off a helmet and going for a td or say a tight end throwing the ball over his shoulder and getting a lucky bounce right into his starting running back's hands or would you include those?
I think freak plays are a bit subjective and there is really no way to filter them out.

A crazy lucky play like that Ole Miss td can flip the outcome of a game. But over the course of a season with nearly 1000 defensive plays it doesn't have much impact on a metric like overall defensive efficiency.
 

TideFan in AU

Hall of Fame
I think freak plays are a bit subjective and there is really no way to filter them out.

A crazy lucky play like that Ole Miss td can flip the outcome of a game. But over the course of a season with nearly 1000 defensive plays it doesn't have much impact on a metric like overall defensive efficiency.
Agreed. A few freak plays doesn't make a good team bad or a bad team good, although it can definitely have an affect on the team's record.
 

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