CFN: Alabama vs. Michigan State Prediction, Cotton Bowl Preview

crimsonaudio · Dec 11, 2015

sarcyspice said:
.... and now you sound like OSU fan because they said the exact same thing......

But let me add - OSU's offense has looked out of sort almost the entire year - any of their fans with the attitude that they could run on anyone wasn't paying attention. The difference is Bama has run the ball well against five top30 defenses this season. MSU is a great D, no question, and I don't think we run rampant on them - but since the break (post UT), this Bama team has been very focused on physical football, and I don't know that anyone has the bodies to stop them for four quarters when they're determined.

B1GTide · Dec 11, 2015

crimsonaudio said:
But let me add - OSU's offense has looked out of sort almost the entire year - any of their fans with the attitude that they could run on anyone wasn't paying attention. The difference is Bama has run the ball well against five top30 defenses this season. MSU is a great D, no question, and I don't think we run rampant on them - but since the break (post UT), this Bama team has been very focused on physical football, and I don't know that anyone has the bodies to stop them for four quarters when they're determined.

Let me add that Meyer stopped running the ball. That won't happen with Alabama. Win or lose, Henry is going to get to carry the rock.

Sabanizer · Dec 11, 2015

JBama_in_PCOLA said:
They are still somewhat discounting the secondary. Good for them. Bama is focused, even more than last go around. It could very well end up like the Miss State game though I'm thinking will be like the Arkansas game. I'll take the win either way we can get it.

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Yep, due more in part to the QB's in our league this year, untested. This is exactly why some are giving Oklahoma the slight edge to win it all over Bama. I think we will offset a few big passes with picks if anyone starts throwing too much. So much of this speculation is based on a perceived weakness that may not be a weakness. Fine with me, I like going into the games as a slight underdog, and challenging our secondary. Young, but 2 of them are future 1st rounders.

Tidewater · Dec 11, 2015

I sincerely believe that if Alabama brings it's A-game, they will easily cover the spread.
If they mail it in like they did against Utah and Oklahoma, Spartie will spank them handily, as in, by more than two touchdowns.
Which outcome will occur depends almost entirely on the mindset of the Alabama players (no offense intended to Mich State, which is a very good team).

Focus. Intensity. Do not take your opponent lightly.

colbysullivan · Dec 11, 2015

JBama_in_PCOLA said:
They are still somewhat discounting the secondary. Good for them. Bama is focused, even more than last go around. It could very well end up like the Miss State game though I'm thinking will be like the Arkansas game. I'll take the win either way we can get it.

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I'm still confused as to why everyone (not Bama fans) thinks our secondary is a liability. Do they even watch the games or just the highlights?

crimsonaudio · Dec 11, 2015

colbysullivan said:
I'm still confused as to why everyone (not Bama fans) thinks our secondary is a liability. Do they even watch the games or just the highlights?

I don't know - it's like they think a 'good secondary' doesn't allow completions of more than about 10 yards.

JustNeedMe81 · Dec 11, 2015

My whole thing is.... I think MSU knows what they're facing, but I don't think they realizes it until they get on the field and how physical Bama defense is. We have experience playing in the stadium, and MSU doesn't. Thats why Wmack was telling me the other day, we just gotta hit the middle of the field to advance the ball. The MSU Defense will be tired in second quarter. I'm calling this one 43-21 . I expect few turnovers by MSU.

JBama_in_PCOLA · Dec 11, 2015

crimsonaudio said:
I don't know - it's like they think a 'good secondary' doesn't allow completions of more than about 10 yards.

Which is crazy because the teams that are in it right have weak secondaries. The only secondary I would put over ours is Florida, and after what Ridley and Stewart did to them, I'm not sure about that anymore.

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sarcyspice · Dec 11, 2015

JustNeedMe81 said:
My whole thing is.... I think MSU knows what they're facing, but I don't think they realizes it until they get on the field and how physical Bama defense is. We have experience playing in the stadium, and MSU doesn't. Thats why Wmack was telling me the other day.

I think MSU and the fans do know what they are facing and i don't think that has ever been doubted.... And in a perverse way I think this matchup works for our end because again it a measuring stick of how far we have come since 2010.....

I actually think it is the other way where Bama Fans actually underestimate what MSU is bringing to the table here.... and they look at that 2010 team and that beatdown (and msu fans aren't afraid to call it what it was as you have seen in our game thread that day) and think "same old same old"

p.s we do have experience playing in that stadium by the way..... year ago to the day almost... cotton bowl against baylor..... so we know what it feels like to be the road team there.....

RTR91 · Dec 11, 2015

sarcyspice said:
.... and now you sound like OSU fan because they said the exact same thing......
and the air force rushing total the day they played MSU, was their lowest run production of the season....

can I put it another way just so we are not fighting and having a proper discussion.....

do i think Henry would go for.... lets say 35 rushes for 100 yards.... yep
do I think henry will rush for his season average or higher.... no
would I consider " 35 for 100" a win for MSU..... yep...
Would "35 for 100" get bama to think about changing the way it plays.... yep

is saban likely to change to passing if "35 for 100" was the figure quicker than dantonio would.... you betcha!!!

does that worry me??? you betcha.....
I think the one that persists with the running game longer will lose.... I think saban may find that weakness in MSU earlier than Dantonio would in Alabama...

so out of interest.... how many rushing yards do you think henry gets in this game? what would you think the lowest yard total henry could run for it to be a bama win in that part of the game?

I am genuinely interested......

Stats geek here. Let's look at some things shall we? (Click for the other thread where I have the entire breakdown.

Michigan State held opponents just under 80 rushing yards below their average.
Alabama gained 59 more yards than its opponents averaged giving up on the ground.

We can surmise the difference is Michigan State holds Alabama to 21 yards below its season average, which would equal 187 rushing yards. That would mean Sparty gives up 74 more yards than its season average.

The averages might show Sparty with the ability to hold Alabama below its average, but they also show Alabama runs on Sparty more than its average.

You're willing to admit if Alabama gets to 187 rushing yards and the turnover category isn't skewed towards either team, Alabama wins, aren't you?

UntouchableCrew · Dec 11, 2015

JustNeedMe81 said:
We have experience playing in the stadium, and MSU doesn't.

Of course they do. They won this very bowl game last year.

UntouchableCrew · Dec 11, 2015

RTR91 said:
Stats geek here. Let's look at some things shall we? (Click for the other thread where I have the entire breakdown.

Michigan State held opponents just under 80 rushing yards below their average.
Alabama gained 59 more yards than its opponents averaged giving up on the ground.

We can surmise the difference is Michigan State holds Alabama to 21 yards below its season average, which would equal 187 rushing yards. That would mean Sparty gives up 74 more yards than its season average.

The averages might show Sparty with the ability to hold Alabama below its average, but they also show Alabama runs on Sparty more than its average.

You're willing to admit if Alabama gets to 187 rushing yards and the turnover category isn't skewed towards either team, Alabama wins, aren't you?

Yeah, I think most people would agree that if Bama rushes for 187 they'll win. That would indicate that they're most likley controlling the clock and the tempo.

It will probably be critical for MSU to sustain some drives on offense to keep the defense as fresh as possible. They're gonna need a big game from the offensive line, because if Cook is kept clean he'll complete some passes.

Ole Man Dan · Dec 11, 2015

My prediction is MSU will fill the box to stop Henry. It will probably work for a while, then one step beyond them and Henry has a touchdown.
I look for Jake Coker to do just what MSU thinks they want him to do... Except... Jake does it pretty well. MSU better dble Radley, maybe Stewart too.
I'm gonna throw the first flag of the game for MSU playing with too many men on the field.
How are they gonna fill the box, dbl. Radley, and maybe Stewart, and stop Jake from running?
Good question... They can gamble on which poison they want. Do they leave someone open or invite their DL to stop Henry in the open field.
An additional problem for MSU is CNS,CKS and CLK will have time to craft their plays to the MSU weakness.
MSU is a good team, but I don't think they are up to the task.
Our guys are on a mission... :BigA:

29-14 RTR
(Sing a little DixieLand Delight and Rammer Jammer)

sarcyspice · Dec 11, 2015

RTR91 said:
You're willing to admit if Alabama gets to 187 rushing yards and the turnover category isn't skewed towards either team, Alabama wins, aren't you?

actually.... yes i am.... if alabama gets to 187 rushing yards i would fully expect you to win..... and as someone else said, that would indicate clock control and both side are going to need that.....

thats why i asked the question...... for henry vs the MSU D..... what do you think he will run? and whats the lowest number of yards that henry could gain for it (the game) to lean Bama's way? so what number would have a bama fan worried?

TideEngineer08 · Dec 11, 2015

sarcyspice said:
I think MSU and the fans do know what they are facing and i don't think that has ever been doubted.... And in a perverse way I think this matchup works for our end because again it a measuring stick of how far we have come since 2010.....

I actually think it is the other way where Bama Fans actually underestimate what MSU is bringing to the table here.... and they look at that 2010 team and that beatdown (and msu fans aren't afraid to call it what it was as you have seen in our game thread that day) and think "same old same old"

p.s we do have experience playing in that stadium by the way..... year ago to the day almost... cotton bowl against baylor..... so we know what it feels like to be the road team there.....

Trust me this message board does not look back at 2010 as any indicator of how this game will go.

I'm looking at the most recent Big Ten championship, and I don't see a lot of athleticism on other side. Especially Iowa. Had Iowa won and we matched up with them, it would have been a blood bath. Michigan State literally put them in a vice grip on that last drive and slowly squeezed the life out of them and there was nothing Iowa could do about it. I think Michigan State's discipline matches up with us much better, but I still think you are short on athleticism and it will be your undoing unless Alabama turns the ball over. Which is entirely possible.

RTR91 · Dec 11, 2015

sarcyspice said:
actually.... yes i am.... if alabama gets to 187 rushing yards i would fully expect you to win..... and as someone else said, that would indicate clock control and both side are going to need that.....

thats why i asked the question...... for henry vs the MSU D..... what do you think he will run? and whats the lowest number of yards that henry could gain for it (the game) to lean Bama's way? so what number would have a bama fan worried?

On the season, Michigan State averages giving up 3.55 yards per rush. Henry averages 5.9 yards per rush. As a team, Alabama averages 4.83 yards per rush. For the sake of this discussion, I looked solely at Henry and Sparty.

The average of 3.55 and 5.9 yards per rush is 4.7. Let's assume he gets that.

He averages 26 carries per game. Sparty averages facing 32 carries per game (fyi, Alabama averages 43 rushes per game). Taking the two averages, we give him 29 carries for the game.

With the 4.7 average at 29 carries, he would have 136 yards.

If he has less than 100, I will be very worried.

If he has less than 125, I will hope Jake Coker and the defense make plays.

If he has over 130, I will be pretty confident.

RTR91 · Dec 11, 2015

Here's a stat Sparty wins - turnover margin.

They average +1.23 in the turnover margin category while Alabama sits +.54.

CrimsonForce · Dec 11, 2015

Here's a better question rather than trying to figure out how Alabama can move the ball and score on Michigan State - how will Michigan State be able to move the ball on the best front 7 in the modern era of college football + the best ball hawking secondary of the Saban era?

TideEngineer08 · Dec 11, 2015

CrimsonForce said:
Here's a better question rather than trying to figure out how Alabama can move the ball and score on Michigan State - how will Michigan State be able to move the ball on the best front 7 in the modern era of college football + the best ball hawking secondary of the Saban era?

The answer is they won't. The only way they score more than 10 in this game is if we turn the ball over allowing short fields, or we have special teams gaffes. Both of which are entirely possible, mind you, but MSU will not consistently move the ball against this defense. The field position battle in this game will be HUGE.

RTR91 · Dec 11, 2015

TideEngineer08 said:
The answer is they won't. The only way they score more than 10 in this game is if we turn the ball over allowing short fields, or we have special teams gaffes. Both of which are entirely possible, mind you, but MSU will not consistently move the ball against this defense. The field position battle in this game will be HUGE.

Alabama ranks 90 in "net punting" with an average 36.32 yards net gain on every punt. Alabama has had 8 of its 59 punts end up being touch backs.

Michigan State ranks 112 with an average of 35.21 yards net gain on every punt. MSU has had 8 of its 53 punts end up being touch backs.

Both teams are bad at punt return defense. Alabama allows 10.95 yards per return. MSU allows 11.81 yards per return.

Alabama ranks 24 averaging 12.42 yards per return. Michigan State, OTOH, ranks 119 with an average of 2.8 yards per return.

CFN: Alabama vs. Michigan State Prediction, Cotton Bowl Preview

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