Re: Can Trump Really Win the Presidency?
With all due respect Baz, and let me be clear, I hope you are right about Clinton, but her baggage will not deter voters. I have been around political elections since Nixon and it is sad to say that integrity and morals don't mean squat when electing any public official at any level.
there's no evidence to support your theory
Marion Barry
Bill Clinton
Richard Nixon
Huey Long
JFK
Joe McCarthy
No evidence at all..
I know there are a lot of posters on here who want to believe she will be indicted and serve time, but it will not happen, although I think it should. The media is trying to keep ratings up, and give Republican's hope by reporting Sanders can defeat her for the Dems nomination, what a freakin joke.
This is actually MORE LIKELY than Trump winning the GOP nomination. Granted, it's a snowball's chance in Hell but if you go back and look historically since we moved to the primary system, the GOP ALWAYS nominates their front-runner (usually the person whose 'turn' it is) and the Democrats do so about half the time:
1968 - LBJ front-runner, nominated Humphrey
1972 - Muskie, McGovern
1976 - Kennedy (didn't run), Carter clawed it out as the front-runner
1980 - Kennedy put a scare in the incumbent Carter, who led early on by 50 points
1984 - Mondale, Mondale.....but it went all the way to the Convention
1988 - Hart, Dukakis (although Hart DQ'ed himself, he likely would have lost anyway per the polls)
1992 - Clinton, Clinton
1996 - incumbent unchallenged
2000 - Gore, Gore
2004 - Dean, Kerry
2008 - HRC, Obama
Furthermore, Sanders is nothing more than undiluted George McGovern on steroids. (Even McGovern had limits he wasn't willing to push in the 1972 race - strange as it may sound, he thought abortion, which was not legal until 1973, should be left up to the states). Sanders IS what the Democratic base in this country has been my entire life (which is why it has shrunk from the 54% of the nation it made up in 1968).
Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate. Of course, terrible candidates do win sometimes (insert GHW Bush reference here).....if their opponent is an even worse candidate. She's had one REAL contested race in her lifetime - and she lost. As soon as it becomes obvious to other sections of the country that she is NOT to be crowned then she has a major problem (this is why Sanders MUST win Iowa AND New Hampshire or it's over).
Of course, the Democrats have super-delegates in order to keep anyone the voters actually choose but the establishment opposes from actually running.
Unfortunately for America, the Clintons are a national brand and most voters are enamored with the brand that they had rather have that brand rather than a Republican.
But are they, Gray?
What percentage of voters even REMEMBER Bill Clinton's Presidency? Figure that my son will be 18 this year (but after the election so he cannot vote) - he was born the week the House voted to impeach Clinton. HE HAS NO RECOLLECTION of Clinton as President at all. In fact, to even have a VAGUE memory of any of Clinton's politics, you have to be about 34 years old and to have a CLEAR memory ("yeah, those were good times") you have to be around forty. That's about the age folks are in the midst of their (usual maturity) shift of moving from the left to the right of center, something that hardly benefits Hillary Clinton. (The bonus plus for Hillary is that those same folks at the same age know of Donald Trump as "the guy who destroyed the USFL" and "the rich, pompous windbag who went bankrupt multiple times").
Of the ones who remember it, how old do you have to have been to have been making an actual living and can make the association of "Clinton Good/Bush Bad?" You have to be about my age, and we're the folks who cannot stand that woman because we watched her rise as a queen in the first place and suddenly disappear after her health care fiasco.
My point is NOT that Hillary cannot win, she's undoubtedly the favorite and the most likely winner at this point. But the fact she has the name is not to my mind (other than among the echo chamber of Democratic liberalism) sufficient to find even a plurality of voters who will support her.
Yes, there's some mindless nonsense going on by people who cannot even make an assessment of the 1990s JUST AS GW Bush got elected mostly due to his name. But Sanders beating Hillary would not be nearly the upset the self-appointed media arbiters like to pretend it would be.