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Remaining Schedule and Chances of Post Season Play

Tides_of_Change

Tides_of_Change

1st Team
Sep 27, 2012
459
0
0
At the beginning of the season, I thought 16 wins and a possible NIT bid would be considered a success. I thought the team would have enough pluck and grit and keep the floor at around 14 wins.

As things stand now, we will be favored in three home games, dogs in three road games and hopefully a toss-up at Georgia for the last game and a probable chance to go .500 in the league. Taking the most realistic route though, if things finish to type and we nab MSU, Auburn and Ark and then get very possibly get a first round win in Nashville, that would get us to 18 wins and a lock for the NIT given our SOS and RPI, which is just astounding given the key injuries and thin depth to begin with.

However, if all the breaks go our way, we clean up at home, get Georgia in Athens and even nab another road win most likely at heavily inconsistent LSU, I think even the most logical fan would agree that we could head to Nashville shooting for a 20th win and a likely low seed (10 or 11) in the dance, again, given our SOS and RPI. That would simply be monumental.
 
RTR91

RTR91

Super Moderator
Nov 23, 2007
39,407
6
0
Prattville
Alabama has 7 games remaining:

@Florida
@LSU
Mississippi state
@ Kentucky
Auburn
Arkansas
@Georgia

I believe we can probably go ahead and mark the game at Kentucky as a loss. Ideally, Bama sweeps the three home games and win two of the road games. That would put the team at 19-11 heading into the SEC tournament and possibly with a very nice seeding.

Also, in his most recent Bracketology (2/11 version), Lunardi has Alabama has "Next Out." IOW, he thinks Alabama is one of the last 8 teams out of the tournament.
 
T

TitleWave

All-American
Dec 3, 2012
3,173
829
132
RTR91 said:
Ideally, Bama sweeps the three home games and win two of the road games. That would put the team at 19-11 heading into the SEC tournament...
Click to expand...
Get to 19-11 and it's Let's Go Dancing - SEC tournament results irregardless (save for an opening-round 25-point loss to Pearl's calamity).
 
R

Rama Jama

All-American
Jan 4, 2011
3,304
241
82
Tuscaloosa
RTR91 said:
Alabama has 7 games remaining:

@Florida
@LSU
Mississippi state
@ Kentucky
Auburn
Arkansas
@Georgia

I believe we can probably go ahead and mark the game at Kentucky as a loss. Ideally, Bama sweeps the three home games and win two of the road games. That would put the team at 19-11 heading into the SEC tournament and possibly with a very nice seeding.

Also, in his most recent Bracketology (2/11 version), Lunardi has Alabama has "Next Out." IOW, he thinks Alabama is one of the last 8 teams out of the tournament.
Click to expand...
I think we need to get one of the next 2 away and then hold home court with State, Auburn, and Arkansas. You are right the UK matchups do not favor us in any way, but the fact is we were far from the most talented team on the court last night and still gutted one out so you never know until they play the game. That leaves us with what might be a play in game for us with Georgia. Assuming we end up that way, we'd be 5-2 in our final 7 games which would put our record at 19-11 overall and 10-8 in SEC play going into the SEC tourney. We also need to be one of the top 5 teams in the conference which could be a stumbling block.

BTW, our RPI is 39 today.

All in all, I am very proud of the way we have played so far. It is a far cry from where we've been the last 6 years.
 
Last edited:
The Playmaker

The Playmaker

2nd Team
Jan 9, 2011
300
0
0
T-town
@Florida
@LSU
Mississippi state
@ Kentucky
Auburn
Arkansas
@Georgia

Sitting at 14-9 and right on the bubble let's go ahead and check out the resume.

-4 wins against teams in the top 25
-RPI of 39 before tonight's games
-Strength of Schedule is at 14
-Strong OOC schedule and improved SEC conference

Alabama should win-out at home. That puts us at 17 wins. We'll handle MSU again, revenge against Auburn and should beat Arkansas. The road games will be tricky. Realistically, we drop our next 2 games and hope we rebound against MSU or our season will basically be over. If we rebound against MSU then we face a tough UK team, L. What we really need to do is steal that UGA game to close the season and put us at 18 wins. If we can somehow beat UF or LSU, along with UGA, then we're sitting at 19 wins and another potential top 25 victory (LSU should be at that time). With 19 wins before SEC Tournament even begins, we should be in. As long as Alabama doesn't lose their opening game then that gives Alabama 20 wins. 19 wins if we drop both UF and LSU. 19 is the number we need to hit, 20 would be a lock for the NCAA Tournament.
 
GP for Bama

GP for Bama

All-American
Feb 3, 2011
4,335
1,100
187
If we go 4-3 in the last 7 games, then we finish the season 9-9 in the SEC...I think we would be in the NCAA tournament.
I Believe! !
 
Bazza

Bazza

TideFans Legend
Oct 1, 2011
35,798
21,534
187
New Smyrna Beach, Florida
Losing to Florida is certainly NOT a given. Florida has had some very uneven performances this season and are beatable!

The key to this game will come down to FT's and shooting, IMHO. Both teams will play defense and both will be even on 3 point shooting.
 
37bamagreats55

37bamagreats55

All-American
Apr 1, 2003
2,324
46
67
46
Gardendale, AL
While the projections and prognostications are nice at this point, they don't mean a lick. There's still plenty of work to be done and our season rests on what we do or don't do in the next month of basketball. Keep playing hard, try to sneak a road victory or two in there, hold serve at home, win two in the SEC tournament and we'll be OK.
 
beatthemtigers

beatthemtigers

All-American
Jan 4, 2006
2,460
164
87
39
Looking good, need to keep rolling. Lsu, florida, or Kentucky. Would LOVE to at least beat one of those.
 
A

Alasippi

Suspended
Aug 31, 2007
12,875
2
57
Ocean Springs, MS
I love our team but looking at the trends in the conference I'd project 19-13 at the very best.
That still might get us in. A couple of SEC tournament wins and our chances would improve dramatically.
Regardless, I'm not so much as interested in post season this year as I'm optimistic about the future.
I had no idea until I listened to the ESPN Radio interview RTR posted that we have beaten more top 25 teams already, this year alone, than we had in the last eight years combined! Phenomenal job by Avery Johnson. Sip
 
TideWatcher

TideWatcher

All-SEC
Dec 11, 2006
1,814
11
62
newton county, ms
It sure is nice to have optimism. I think if we upset Florida today, we are definitely in for now and would build a resume that would give Bama more tiebreakers in the final analysis compared to other bubble teams, but lot of basketball left to be played. I agree with the phenomenal job assessment by CAJ.
 
B

bamadp

All-SEC
Sep 24, 2006
1,023
0
0
Sheffield, Al.
The win over TAMU was great, we had to defend our home court, and we did. We outplayed 'em for 37 minutes, but we still had a couple of things we've got to improve on. Our 3-point shooting was poor (8-25 for 32%), and we were plagued by turnovers (13) again. Our rebounding was a lot better (36 total and 14 offensive). It's amazing how good rebounding can cover up other deficiencies :wink:. To beat UF, or any other team, we need to do three things: shoot better, and that can be accomplished mainly through better shot selection. Eliminate our careless to's, i.e. traveling, poor passes, or fumbling the ball out of bounds, and rebound. We need to continue rebounding like we did against TAMU. If we do those three things (something we actually have control over), we can beat anyone we play. Winning will take care of itself, and in turn so will the post-season. We'd be better served going into any post season play, whether it is the NCAA or NIT, based on what we did rather than what the other team didn't do. We can't rely on a 90% foul shooter to miss a couple of FT's every game :wink:. RTR
 
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