If I were Texas, and I was faced with a Big 12 future of potentially being pressured/cajoled out of the LHN AND with the addition of some combination of Cincinnati, Memphis, and/or BYU, I would be tempted to round up Oklahoma, Okie State, and Texas Tech and head west into a Pac 16. Essentially the same deal they tried to pull a few years back before Texas A&M pulled the rug out from under them (and before Pac added Utah, reducing the need to 4 teams to get to 16). The money would have to be better (assuming that there's no logical future for LHN), the conference composition would be MUCH more compelling (I don't think Cincy, Memphis, or BYU add much more than numbers and somewhat respectable teams), and the Pac gets a strong Texas foothold and an inventory of kickoffs in the Central Time Zone.
Another option for Texas would be pairing up with Kansas and heading to the Big 10 (the Big 10 would probably love to add Texas, and Kansas makes the most sense--academically for the Big 10 and geographically--to get to 16), but the politics would be tougher and, with the grant of rights, it is probably easier to just blow up the Big 12 entirely with four departures than having your biggest fish +1 leaving the others in a diminished league. The third option would be the ACC, but there's no natural partner to join Texas to get them to 16 unless Notre Dame would be ready to fully join in football. And there may not be enough money in the free world to sweeten the pot enough to make both Texas and Notre Dame whole in exchange for their TV deals.
My point is that if the Big 12 is either inevitably headed toward adding downmarket programs AND going to force Texas the relinquish the LHN or face Oklahoma (and probably Okie State) heading for the exit or making their life miserable, then life outside the Big 12 has to look better than inside it by comparison. To me, the Pac 12 deal would look best if they could swing it. With the Pac at 16, it would be fascinating to the see if any of other leagues followed the jump to 16 and if the Big 12 leftovers could worm their way into another Power Five league or if they all wound up reconstituting with the upper-tier AAC schools.