Will Texas let the Big 12 expand?

GrayTide · Apr 4, 2016

I would not be in favor of adding any team currently in the Big 12 into SEC membership. I would qualify that by saying; if the SEC expands to 16 teams and looks to add a current ACC member and cannot lure one, then my fall back position would be to consider WVU. Without some future conference poaching and realignment the only teams unaffiliated at present are two religious schools and two service academies. Seems like Navy possibly has an affiliation that kicks in in the next year or so though I am not sure about that. The reality is that there is a strong likelihood that the current Big 12 will dissolve and its members scatter to the wind.

Redwood Forrest · Apr 4, 2016

GrayTide said:
I would not be in favor of adding any team currently in the Big 12 into SEC membership. I would qualify that by saying; if the SEC expands to 16 teams and looks to add a current ACC member and cannot lure one, then my fall back position would be to consider WVU. Without some future conference poaching and realignment the only teams unaffiliated at present are two religious schools and two service academies. Seems like Navy possibly has an affiliation that kicks in in the next year or so though I am not sure about that. The reality is that there is a strong likelihood that the current Big 12 will dissolve and its members scatter to the wind.

Completely agree. But, from a $$$ view, we need those Ohio numbers so Cincy would bring viewers. I don't know about the last one, maybe UConn or UMass or E Carolina?

TideEngineer08 · Apr 4, 2016

GrayTide said:
I would not be in favor of adding any team currently in the Big 12 into SEC membership. I would qualify that by saying; if the SEC expands to 16 teams and looks to add a current ACC member and cannot lure one, then my fall back position would be to consider WVU. Without some future conference poaching and realignment the only teams unaffiliated at present are two religious schools and two service academies. Seems like Navy possibly has an affiliation that kicks in in the next year or so though I am not sure about that. The reality is that there is a strong likelihood that the current Big 12 will dissolve and its members scatter to the wind.

Navy's first season in the AAC was last year.

Here is what I think we know about this whole situation:

1. The LHN is a complete failure. Except that Texas has a guaranteed contract so that despite the fact that only Chip Brown watches it, they are making millions. ESPN is losing millions, however.

2. Texas is loathe to go anywhere. They want the situation to remain as it is, with the Big 12 intact and with only 10 members. They are making big time money and any change in the situation risks eating into that.

3. Oklahoma is unhappy. They have stuck with Texas through the years, understandably, and they have found themselves in a watered down league with several long time opponents gone elsewhere.

4. The rest of the Big 12 is whatever Texas wants them to be. So right now, they are happy and probably miffed at Oklahoma for stirring the pot again. All of them have no chance without Texas saying they have a chance.

5. A possible exception to that is Kansas, with their basketball. But that's very doubtful.

All of this points to nothing at all changing unless Oklahoma can make Texas believe they aren't bluffing about leaving if they don't get what they want. And that's going to be a real tough sell for the Sooners because the Pac 12 has no interest in them, the ACC probably doesn't, the SEC probably doesn't, and the Big Ten likely does not although I can believe the Big Ten would bring them in along with Kansas. Heck, they brought in Rutgers, right? Oklahoma has to make Texas believe they really will leave, and that someone really will take them in. If they can, then I think they have a shot at saving the Big 12. If they cannot, then the Big 12 will be broken apart when the next round of expansion comes along, and the Big Ten decides to go to 16 teams (and they will be followed shortly thereafter by the SEC).

rgw · Apr 4, 2016

Redwood Forrest said:
$$$ has a way of leveling objections. The Pac12 needs more TV sets badly and that has to make Texas a prime target. They are 30,000,000 and change TV sets behind the ACC, SEC and B1G. Adding a Texas team would increase the TV sets from 65,000,000 to 93,000,000 at once. The B1G could swamp the SEC and ACC in one feel swoop by adding the 27 million TV sets in Texas. That would put the B1G at 1,260,000,000. Yes, ONE BILLION and two-hundred sixty million.

Now if the B1G (or ACC) were to add any Big 12 team in Texas it would jump the numbers up. The other three teams do not have the following Texas does but still it seems to be all about the numbers in expansion. I would take less money per school to get the numbers because the rating numbers will increase over time as the fans and media adjust.

I think a good deal of that is due to bad television contracts though...right?

rgw · Apr 4, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
Navy's first season in the AAC was last year.

Here is what I think we know about this whole situation:

1. The LHN is a complete failure. Except that Texas has a guaranteed contract so that despite the fact that only Chip Brown watches it, they are making millions. ESPN is losing millions, however.

2. Texas is loathe to go anywhere. They want the situation to remain as it is, with the Big 12 intact and with only 10 members. They are making big time money and any change in the situation risks eating into that.

3. Oklahoma is unhappy. They have stuck with Texas through the years, understandably, and they have found themselves in a watered down league with several long time opponents gone elsewhere.

4. The rest of the Big 12 is whatever Texas wants them to be. So right now, they are happy and probably miffed at Oklahoma for stirring the pot again. All of them have no chance without Texas saying they have a chance.

5. A possible exception to that is Kansas, with their basketball. But that's very doubtful.

All of this points to nothing at all changing unless Oklahoma can make Texas believe they aren't bluffing about leaving if they don't get what they want. And that's going to be a real tough sell for the Sooners because the Pac 12 has no interest in them, the ACC probably doesn't, the SEC probably doesn't, and the Big Ten likely does not although I can believe the Big Ten would bring them in along with Kansas. Heck, they brought in Rutgers, right? Oklahoma has to make Texas believe they really will leave, and that someone really will take them in. If they can, then I think they have a shot at saving the Big 12. If they cannot, then the Big 12 will be broken apart when the next round of expansion comes along, and the Big Ten decides to go to 16 teams (and they will be followed shortly thereafter by the SEC).

The SEC would take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State then figure out the way to make it fit later.

Crimson1967 · Apr 4, 2016

If the SEC takes both of the Okies, move Missouri to the West and us and the barn to the East.

KrAzY3 · Apr 4, 2016

Crimson1967 said:
If the SEC takes both of the Okies, move Missouri to the West and us and the barn to the East, that would be absolutely horrible.

I fixed it for you.

Oklahoma has a population of 3.8 million. There are other reasons but that's all anyone needs to know. The SEC already got the two largest states the Big-12 had, there's nothing left worth bothering with.

TideEngineer08 · Apr 4, 2016

rgw said:
The SEC would take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State then figure out the way to make it fit later.

I'm not convinced. It really depends on a lot of things. Does the Big Ten go to 16 and if so, who do they go after? I think its most likely they are the first to jump to 16. I also think they are far more likely to take Kansas/Oklahoma in order to shore up their basketball roster in competition with the ACC, who has become the premier basketball league after its raid on the Big East. UNLESS, that is, the Big Ten can grab North Carolina. In fact, I think UNC is the prime target in the next expansion wave, along with Virginia. I think the SEC and Big Ten both covet both schools. It's two states neither conference has a footprint in, with large (and growing) population bases.

If the Big Ten expands, and I think they will, then the SEC will follow suit. It could come down to a bidding war of sorts for UNC/Virginia between the Big Ten and SEC. Both conferences offer unique things to each school. The Big Ten? Mythical academic superiority. The SEC? Cultural and regional fit, which I think go a long way but probably not as far as the academic superiority goes with the pinheads that run the universities and ultimately make these decisions. So then, does UNC/Virginia even want to leave the ACC? For the money probably so. It would be a substantial pay raise.

At that point, if the Big Ten outbids the SEC for UNC/Virginia, the SEC must decide if it wants to try to pick up the second team in North Carolina and Virginia (Duke, NC State, Virginia Tech) or if it wants to look west. This is where Oklahoma to the SEC might have a chance. However, I believe the SEC would much prefer expanding into North Carolina and Virginia, even if it meant getting a second tier school. So do those second tier schools take up the SEC's offer? For the money, I think it's a no brainer that they do. If they turn down the SEC, then I think that's when they settle and go west. But they will prefer only Oklahoma, not Ok State, and I think they try to get Kansas to come along for the basketball upgrade.

So the Big 12 dies. Texas is forced to go to the Pac 12 along with some combination of what's left, in order to get the PAC to the PAC 16.

The ACC loses either 2 teams or 4. They will get back up to 16 by adding West Virginia, Cincinnati, and/or UConn and Memphis.

Notre Dame is a massive wildcard, obviously, but would likely maintain it's relationship with the ACC if possible.

GrayTide · Apr 4, 2016

If you consider Duke, NC State, and Va Tech second tier schools how would you rate Rutgers and Maryland? If say the B1G expands and picks up UNC and UVA and the SEC counters by getting Duke and Va Tech then the ACC at that point is no better off than the Big 12. FSU and Clemson in the ACC and Texas and OU in the Bog 12 and all the others. Expanding to 16 teams will require raids of current conferences by the B1G and SEC.

rgw · Apr 4, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
I'm not convinced. It really depends on a lot of things. Does the Big Ten go to 16 and if so, who do they go after? I think its most likely they are the first to jump to 16. I also think they are far more likely to take Kansas/Oklahoma in order to shore up their basketball roster in competition with the ACC, who has become the premier basketball league after its raid on the Big East. UNLESS, that is, the Big Ten can grab North Carolina. In fact, I think UNC is the prime target in the next expansion wave, along with Virginia. I think the SEC and Big Ten both covet both schools. It's two states neither conference has a footprint in, with large (and growing) population bases.

If the Big Ten expands, and I think they will, then the SEC will follow suit. It could come down to a bidding war of sorts for UNC/Virginia between the Big Ten and SEC. Both conferences offer unique things to each school. The Big Ten? Mythical academic superiority. The SEC? Cultural and regional fit, which I think go a long way but probably not as far as the academic superiority goes with the pinheads that run the universities and ultimately make these decisions. So then, does UNC/Virginia even want to leave the ACC? For the money probably so. It would be a substantial pay raise.

At that point, if the Big Ten outbids the SEC for UNC/Virginia, the SEC must decide if it wants to try to pick up the second team in North Carolina and Virginia (Duke, NC State, Virginia Tech) or if it wants to look west. This is where Oklahoma to the SEC might have a chance. However, I believe the SEC would much prefer expanding into North Carolina and Virginia, even if it meant getting a second tier school. So do those second tier schools take up the SEC's offer? For the money, I think it's a no brainer that they do. If they turn down the SEC, then I think that's when they settle and go west. But they will prefer only Oklahoma, not Ok State, and I think they try to get Kansas to come along for the basketball upgrade.

So the Big 12 dies. Texas is forced to go to the Pac 12 along with some combination of what's left, in order to get the PAC to the PAC 16.

The ACC loses either 2 teams or 4. They will get back up to 16 by adding West Virginia, Cincinnati, and/or UConn and Memphis.

Notre Dame is a massive wildcard, obviously, but would likely maintain it's relationship with the ACC if possible.

I truly believe the cure to our basketball ailments come from within and adding Kansas would only further the disincentivize basketball competition as KU and UK lord over the competition. We need the conference as a whole to prioritize being competitive in basketball.

JDCrimson · Apr 4, 2016

I think it is pretty well-established that non of the Big XII members get an equal share with UT and OU getting a greater share of the revenue. If they want to hold the conference together they need to add a couple more members - members who are willing to be treated like step-children like the rest of the conference members. Given this arrangement, Memphis and either Cincinnati or Colorado State (some team that gets you something close to the Denver Market). Adding Houston does nothing for them. Now, if they dont expand and the league continues to erode (and eventually ESPN will pull the plug on the LHN) then the SEC needs to poach Kansas (upgrading basketball and adding KC TV market to the footprint for football) and an available east market team. I dont think charter members of the ACC are available (or really any ACC team for that matter) given their media rights grants contract that was signed by all the conference members. If you cant go east, the next best option is to drive our stake deeper in Texas taking someone like TCU. Adding the Kansas and TCU doesnt upset the power brand or power structure of SEC football yet still adds TV market share for the conference and improves basketball lineup. I really think the value of Kansas to the Big XII is being undervalued. If they were to leave do you think the conference could stay together after having already lost Missouri and A&M?

TideEngineer08 · Apr 5, 2016

GrayTide said:
If you consider Duke, NC State, and Va Tech second tier schools how would you rate Rutgers and Maryland? If say the B1G expands and picks up UNC and UVA and the SEC counters by getting Duke and Va Tech then the ACC at that point is no better off than the Big 12. FSU and Clemson in the ACC and Texas and OU in the Bog 12 and all the others. Expanding to 16 teams will require raids of current conferences by the B1G and SEC.

I think the powers that be consider those schools the second tier. If you look at the SEC, most of the schools are the big state schools. Alabama. Florida. Ole Miss. Tennessee. Arkansas. South Carolina. Georgia. Kentucky. LSU. Then, you've got the land grants: Auburn, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, etc. I think the SEC and the Big Ten would covet the large state schools like North Carolina and Virginia. I do think the SEC would settle for Virginia Tech and NC State or Duke, but I don't think the Big Ten would take any of that group except Duke.

I think the Big 12 is worse positioned to survive a raid than the ACC, to be honest. If the Big 12 loses Oklahoma, they are in a really, really bad position to pick off anyone from another power conference. Heck, they are in a bad position now. If the ACC loses 2 or 4 schools, they've still got 10 to 12 (plus Notre Dame for all sports but football). They are better positioned to start adding back schools.

The Big 12 is really on life support right now, whether they are willing to admit it or not. I think Oklahoma is willing to admit and that's what David Boren is trying to fix.

TideEngineer08 · Apr 5, 2016

rgw said:
I truly believe the cure to our basketball ailments come from within and adding Kansas would only further the disincentivize basketball competition as KU and UK lord over the competition. We need the conference as a whole to prioritize being competitive in basketball.

I tend to agree. It wasn't that long ago that the SEC was really good in basketball, beyond Kentucky. Alabama had its day in the 80s (and even before that). Arkansas used to be a powerhouse around the time they joined the SEC in the early 90s. Florida and Billy Donnovan. So it can be done in this conference if we prioritize it like you said.

I would not be a fan of adding Kansas. But I have to admit, it would be a decent fit if they came along with Oklahoma. They would rejoin their main rival: Missouri.

rgw · Apr 5, 2016

Oklahoma is not coming without Oklahoma State and I'd be fine with the pair if there was mutual interest. That is what it comes down to in my opinion. You're playing a political feasibility game as much as anything.

Oklahoma State is the relative minor player in their state who has enough clout to block OU from leaving them high and dry. When Okie Lites and TAMUs types leave on their own, nobody stops them but when the alpha wants to leave they have enough power to stop the alpha.

clemdawg · Apr 5, 2016

Being a BIG 12 fan, this is what troubles me. The Big 12 needs to expand to survive. My question is how big are these conferences going to get to?

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TideEngineer08 · Apr 5, 2016

rgw said:
Oklahoma is not coming without Oklahoma State and I'd be fine with the pair if there was mutual interest. That is what it comes down to in my opinion. You're playing a political feasibility game as much as anything.

Oklahoma State is the relative minor player in their state who has enough clout to block OU from leaving them high and dry. When Okie Lites and TAMUs types leave on their own, nobody stops them but when the alpha wants to leave they have enough power to stop the alpha.

I'm going by what our resident OU fans are saying here, but I don't think this is necessarily the case anymore, if OK State has a comparable home. If expansion armeggedon happens, I think it's possible that OU goes east, either to the Big Ten or SEC, and Texas goes west to the Pac 12. I think Texas would take 3 other schools with them and OK State would probably be one of those schools, along with Texas Tech and maybe Kansas State.

clemdawg said:
Being a BIG 12 fan, this is what troubles me. The Big 12 needs to expand to survive. My question is how big are these conferences going to get to?

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I think the goal is 16. But its all driven by tv money. If the Big 12 were on solid footing, it would stabilize the environment. As it sits now, it's ripe for the picking. It always was and that was because of the personalities involved. But now we're down to life support. If OU doesn't get what it wants (which would effectively stabilize the conference), and it finds an out, then it's likely game over.

clemdawg · Apr 5, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
I'm going by what our resident OU fans are saying here, but I don't think this is necessarily the case anymore, if OK State has a comparable home. If expansion armeggedon happens, I think it's possible that OU goes east, either to the Big Ten or SEC, and Texas goes west to the Pac 12. I think Texas would take 3 other schools with them and OK State would probably be one of those schools, along with Texas Tech and maybe Kansas State.

I think the goal is 16. But its all driven by tv money. If the Big 12 were on solid footing, it would stabilize the environment. As it sits now, it's ripe for the picking. It always was and that was because of the personalities involved. But now we're down to life support. If OU doesn't get what it wants (which would effectively stabilize the conference), and it finds an out, then it's likely game over.

Thats what I see happening.

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GrayTide · Apr 5, 2016

FWIW I still believe the optimum conference size is 12.

TideEngineer08 · Apr 5, 2016

GrayTide said:
FWIW I still believe the optimum conference size is 12.

I do too. I think it's a shame how things have gone.

RobK · Apr 6, 2016

Kansas has the academics (AAU) and the basketball to appeal to any of the other Power 5 leagues but, good grief, their football is hideous. Just awful. It's hard to see any conference wanting to add those 8 or 9 gosh-awful games to their inventory.

I can't see any league expanding past 16. It becomes too unwieldy and too geographically crazy with too many teams not playing one another in the conference schedules for various sports.

Thus, he lies the standoff: all four other Power 5 leagues would probably take Texas if they were interested and were to offload the LHN, but the Longhorns aren't looking around right now; they have no financial incentive to do so until something changes. The SEC and the Big 10 also covet North Carolina and/or Virginia, but neither of them are looking around presently. So if you're the Big 10 or the SEC (or the ACC for that matter), do you max out to 16 with some combination of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and/or Kansas (and maybe another ride-along team), or do you hold out a decade or so for who you really want?

With the Pac 12 at 12 members, they would have the flexibility to take a couple teams and still hold out for Texas someday, but it is hard to see an OU or Kansas going west outside of a cluster of 4 teams to mitigate some of the travel distance.

Will Texas let the Big 12 expand?

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