Will Texas let the Big 12 expand?

RobK said:

Thus, he lies the standoff: all four other Power 5 leagues would probably take Texas if they were interested and were to offload the LHN, but the Longhorns aren't looking around right now; they have no financial incentive to do so until something changes. The SEC and the Big 10 also covet North Carolina and/or Virginia, but neither of them are looking around presently. So if you're the Big 10 or the SEC (or the ACC for that matter), do you max out to 16 with some combination of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and/or Kansas (and maybe another ride-along team), or do you hold out a decade or so for who you really want?

With the Pac 12 at 12 members, they would have the flexibility to take a couple teams and still hold out for Texas someday, but it is hard to see an OU or Kansas going west outside of a cluster of 4 teams to mitigate some of the travel distance.

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This is why I think Oklahoma is bluffing Texas. They are trying to get Texas to budge. They have absolutely no incentive to do so, unless they can be led to believe that Oklahoma is going to leave. If they lose Oklahoma, the Big 12 is no longer a viable power conference.

As for Kansas, that is exactly why I think the Big Ten would be interested. The AAU status and basketball. There is a ton of money to be made in basketball, and right now the ACC and the Big Ten are making most of it. Yeah, Kansas has nothing to speak of in football terms, but the Big Ten already has that covered. I mean, they added Maryland and Rutgers. Also, if they can get Oklahoma in a package deal with Kansas, Oklahoma shores up the football side of their West division. But there are a ton of caveats with that. Oklahoma's football success is completely tied to the state of Texas and they would be leaving that behind if they went to the Big Ten with Kansas as their expansion partner. I honestly don't ever see that happening.

But Oklahoma needs Texas to believe it could happen. I do think this is going to take a number of years to work out, probably when the next round of tv contracts comes up. That's probably about as long as the Big 12 has as a collegiate sports entity, unless they do what needs to be done in the mean time. Status quo is probably not going to work out.

For the record the Big 10 figured things out after messing up pretty badly with the Nebraska addition. Nebraska has a population of 1.88 million and surprisingly enough if you add a football power to a strong football conference you don't instantly get more football success. It just means one program will struggle more than it did before.

So, what did the Big 10 do with their second addition? They added some major markets and states with right at 15 million in population total. Maryland and Rutgers might not have much in the way of sports brands, but their states have good sized populations and that's how the Big 10 makes their money. Now, ask yourself if they'd really want another Nebraska, but in basketball this time? Kansas has 2.9 million in population. I'm not sure what major conference other than the ACC would spend much time looking at them. I seriously doubt any conference that isn't desperate would want to repeat the Nebraska mistake. Only the Big 12 made a similar move when they added West Virginia, which was out of desperation as well. West Virginia is not exactly lining the Big 12's pockets.

It is for this reason that Texas controls the destiny of the Big 12. They are strong enough to keep lucrative TV deals coming in, and would bring enough TV sets that both the Big 10 and Pac 12 would add them if they'd just play fair. Basically the same thing as Notre Dame, if either of those programs decide to be treated as an equal and not demanding they get preferential treatment, just about any conference would pick up either program. And for the record Indiana has a population of 6.5 million. The Big 12 desperately wants Notre Dame to by the way, I bet even Texas would get out of the way for a BYU/Notre Dame addition.

Yeah, Notre Dame could really save the Big 12's bacon. I don't see them giving up their Independence for a schedule full of Kansas and Baylor, though.

Oklahoma ' fate is indeed tied to the state of Texas but not necessarily UT-Austin. Given that I think the only really viable option for Oklahoma is a move to the SEC where they could restore annual matchups with former conference partners A&M and Missouri not to mention potential for playing Arkansas. I think this would seriously devalue UT'S market appeal thereby shifting a good.bitgood bit to A&M, OU and ultimately the SEC at large. All of those texas recruits would much rather play SEC competition than Big Ten competition and certainly not in that weather. With the right marketing strategy to market texas, I could see where a OU/OSU addition could work economically. ESPN could kill LHN and shift dollars to SEC Network for adding them and likely still not lose market share in Texas likely grow market share with a better brand of football. All the SEC would then need to do is start scheduling OOC games with teams like Rice, SMU and Houston for pennies on the dollar and further permeate the Texas market. Let UT go to big 10 or Pac 12. They couldn't overcome a strategy like this employed by the SEC.

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TideEngineer08 said:

Yeah, Notre Dame could really save the Big 12's bacon. I don't see them giving up their Independence for a schedule full of Kansas and Baylor, though.

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Where a Notre Dame/Big12 scenario MIGHT come into play would be if a pair of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State or Oklahoma/Kansas were to leave AND IF Texas simply refused to chuck the LHN to go elsewhere. Then you could bring Notre Dame and Cincinnati in. The remaining 7 Big 12 "refugees" would be so desperate to remain in a Power 5 league (with Cincy desperate to join one) that they would probably sign over a tremendous chunk of revenue to Texas and Notre Dame in order to stay afloat in a 10 team league with two divisions, 8 conference games, and a championship (freeing Texas and Notre Dame to schedule up to 4 high profile non-con games for their respective networks.

Far fetched? Likely so, but never underestimate the self-interest of college football's two most arrogant powers.

RobK said:

Where a Notre Dame/Big12 scenario MIGHT come into play would be if a pair of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State or Oklahoma/Kansas were to leave AND IF Texas simply refused to chuck the LHN to go elsewhere. Then you could bring Notre Dame and Cincinnati in. The remaining 7 Big 12 "refugees" would be so desperate to remain in a Power 5 league (with Cincy desperate to join one) that they would probably sign over a tremendous chunk of revenue to Texas and Notre Dame in order to stay afloat in a 10 team league with two divisions, 8 conference games, and a championship (freeing Texas and Notre Dame to schedule up to 4 high profile non-con games for their respective networks.

Far fetched? Likely so, but never underestimate the self-interest of college football's two most arrogant powers.

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What's Notre Dame's incentive to join, even in this scenario? They do love the money from the NBC contract, but I think they love the Independence even more. I think they need more than 4 free weeks too. They want to keep Stanford and USC on the schedule. That puts them in California every year (recruiting). They want to keep Navy on the schedule because it's a traditional game for them. I think they also have a rivalry game scheduled every season with Purdue and most every season with Michigan State. They gave up the Michigan game as an annual date.

Anyway, I just don't see the incentive for them to join unless rules change which require conference membership in order to make the playoffs. As long as they can still partner with the ACC for their other sports as well as bowl game tie-ins for when they don't make the playoff, I think they'll stick with Independence.

TideEngineer08 said:

This is why I think Oklahoma is bluffing Texas. They are trying to get Texas to budge. They have absolutely no incentive to do so, unless they can be led to believe that Oklahoma is going to leave. If they lose Oklahoma, the Big 12 is no longer a viable power conference.

As for Kansas, that is exactly why I think the Big Ten would be interested. The AAU status and basketball. There is a ton of money to be made in basketball, and right now the ACC and the Big Ten are making most of it. Yeah, Kansas has nothing to speak of in football terms, but the Big Ten already has that covered. I mean, they added Maryland and Rutgers. Also, if they can get Oklahoma in a package deal with Kansas, Oklahoma shores up the football side of their West division. But there are a ton of caveats with that. Oklahoma's football success is completely tied to the state of Texas and they would be leaving that behind if they went to the Big Ten with Kansas as their expansion partner. I honestly don't ever see that happening.

But Oklahoma needs Texas to believe it could happen. I do think this is going to take a number of years to work out, probably when the next round of tv contracts comes up. That's probably about as long as the Big 12 has as a collegiate sports entity, unless they do what needs to be done in the mean time. Status quo is probably not going to work out.

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If they are bluffing Texas, then they are stupid. Texas knows Oklahoma is tied at the hip with Okie State. Texas can afford to live without Oklahoma, but Oklahoma cant live without Texas. By that I mean this, Texas is in a position to go independent if they chose to. They are a BRAND that stems far more than football. Oklahoma makes a tremendous amount of money by being in a conference that they wouldn't all alone. They cant afford to go into an independent status, or they risk being the next BYU. Oklahoma should've pushed for two spots in the ACC if they wanted to get away from the Burnt Cow, because they don't fit Big10 standards and the PAC 12 is only interested in it if the Burnt Cow is involved and there is no way USC and Oregon are going to put up with that steer crap either. The SEC didn't need Oklahoma, and shouldn't even consider it because it only benefits Oklahoma and Okie Lite.

Bottom line is that Texas knows that with aTm,Nebraska, and Mizzou out, they are in complete control in deciding benefits, and they know that ultimately they can live without a conference in the same way Notre Dame does. If Oklahoma leaves to be independent then Texas will follow suit and fight teams for scheduling and blow Oklahoma into being the most irrelevant team ever. So its best for Oklahoma to shut up and color unless they can cut the cancer that is Okie Lite

TideEngineer08 said:

What's Notre Dame's incentive to join, even in this scenario? They do love the money from the NBC contract, but I think they love the Independence even more. I think they need more than 4 free weeks too. They want to keep Stanford and USC on the schedule. That puts them in California every year (recruiting). They want to keep Navy on the schedule because it's a traditional game for them. I think they also have a rivalry game scheduled every season with Purdue and most every season with Michigan State. They gave up the Michigan game as an annual date.

Anyway, I just don't see the incentive for them to join unless rules change which require conference membership in order to make the playoffs. As long as they can still partner with the ACC for their other sports as well as bowl game tie-ins for when they don't make the playoff, I think they'll stick with Independence.

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The incentive for Notre Dame, admittedly far-fetched but conceivably, would be that the collapse of the Big 12 could results in a world with four 16-member conferences/"mouths to feed" and that if right fees begin to plateau, the hunger for a conference or two to tap into NBC's $$ results in a change in the playoff eligibility rules. Once you have conferences with equal #s of members and uniform championship games, the fairness of allowing Notre Dame to slide into a playoff without the gamut of a conference schedule and championship game will be questioned.

And, look, Texas and Notre Dame would have so much leverage over the remaining Big 12 "have not's" that they could probably still function almost as independents from an economic standpoint.

RobK said:

The incentive for Notre Dame, admittedly far-fetched but conceivably, would be that the collapse of the Big 12 could results in a world with four 16-member conferences/"mouths to feed" and that if right fees begin to plateau, the hunger for a conference or two to tap into NBC's results in a change in the playoff eligibility rules. Once you have conferences with equal #s of members and uniform championship games, the fairness of allowing Notre Dame to slide into a playoff without the gamut of a conference schedule and championship game will be questioned.

And, look, Texas and Notre Dame would have so much leverage over the remaining Big 12 "have not's" that they could probably still function almost as independents from an economic standpoint.

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2 reasons it wont happen unless the playoff leaves Notre Dame is...

1. 2 2 many egos
2. NBC vs LHN.

81usaf92 said:

If they are bluffing Texas, then they are stupid. Texas knows Oklahoma is tied at the hip with Okie State. Texas can afford to live without Oklahoma, but Oklahoma cant live without Texas. By that I mean this, Texas is in a position to go independent if they chose to. They are a BRAND that stems far more than football. Oklahoma makes a tremendous amount of money by being in a conference that they wouldn't all alone. They cant afford to go into an independent status, or they risk being the next BYU. Oklahoma should've pushed for two spots in the ACC if they wanted to get away from the Burnt Cow, because they don't fit Big10 standards and the PAC 12 is only interested in it if the Burnt Cow is involved and there is no way USC and Oregon are going to put up with that steer crap either. The SEC didn't need Oklahoma, and shouldn't even consider it because it only benefits Oklahoma and Okie Lite.

Bottom line is that Texas knows that with aTm,Nebraska, and Mizzou out, they are in complete control in deciding benefits, and they know that ultimately they can live without a conference in the same way Notre Dame does. If Oklahoma leaves to be independent then Texas will follow suit and fight teams for scheduling and blow Oklahoma into being the most irrelevant team ever. So its best for Oklahoma to shut up and color unless they can cut the cancer that is Okie Lite

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Oklahoma is a proud institution. They don't like the situation, and aren't content to shut up and color. I don't know if it's a bluff or not, but I think it is based just on what you've said. Nobody really wants or needs Oklahoma. So why are they threatening to leave when it appears obvious they couldn't? It may be stupid, but they're throwing weight around because they want to believe they are on the same footing as Texas. And they are not. They've done a hell of a lot more over the years with Texas recruits than UT ever did, but they don't have the brand power that the Longhorns do.

Still, they're too proud to sit down and shut up.

TideEngineer08 said:

Oklahoma is a proud institution. They don't like the situation, and aren't content to shut up and color. I don't know if it's a bluff or not, but I think it is based just on what you've said. Nobody really wants or needs Oklahoma. So why are they threatening to leave when it appears obvious they couldn't? It may be stupid, but they're throwing weight around because they want to believe they are on the same footing as Texas. And they are not. They've done a hell of a lot more over the years with Texas recruits than UT ever did, but they don't have the brand power that the Longhorns do.

Still, they're too proud to sit down and shut up.

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Well what are they going to do about it????
Waiting since 2010

81usaf92 said:

Well what are they going to do about it????
Waiting since 2010

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Dude I'm not an Oklahoma fan. I don't give a darn what they do about it. I'm trying to explain what I think is going on. I could be completely wrong.

TideEngineer08 said:

Dude I'm not an Oklahoma fan. I don't give a darn what they do about it. I'm trying to explain what I think is going on. I could be completely wrong.

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Never said or thought you were one. I'm just not convinced that Oklahoma has any real power in the land of the burnt cow and the little munchkins. If they did they would've taken that leap of faith a long time ago. I think it more proves that Oklahoma can't survive by their football revenue alone.

81usaf92 said:

Never said or thought you were one. I'm just not convinced that Oklahoma has any real power in the land of the burnt cow and the little munchkins. If they did they would've taken that leap of faith a long time ago. I think it more proves that Oklahoma can't survive by their football revenue alone.

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I don't think they have any real power either, but I think they believe they do.

It's going to come down to Texas's benevolence, until the tv contracts all start coming up for renewal. Then, it will come down to if the Big Ten/SEC/PAC 12/ACC decide they want to try and expand.