The Last 10 States for the Republican Nomination - And Their Delegates....

CajunCrimson

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Here are the last 10 states left before the Convention.

According to Real Clear Politics -- Donald has 954 Delegates, Cruz has 562 and Kasich has 153. Rubio has 170ish....

The number needed is 1237.... So, Donald needs 273 delegates.....

  • Tue, May 3 Indiana 57 (WTA) Open
  • Tue, May 10 Nebraska 36 (WTA) Closed
  • Tue, May 10 West Virginia 34 Mixed
  • Tue, May 17 Oregon 28 (P) Closed
  • Tue, May 24 Washington* 44 (P) Closed
  • Tue, Jun 7 California 172 (P) Mixed
  • Tue, Jun 7 Montana 27 (WTA) Open
  • Tue, Jun 7 New Jersey 51 (WTA) Mixed
  • Tue, Jun 7 New Mexico 24 Closed
  • Tue, Jun 7 South Dakota 29 (WTA) Closed

Trump should win 51 from New Jersey.... (it's Winner Take All)
He will get shut out in SD, Montana, and Nebraska....
West Virginia gives 10 for winner -- and 9 are awarded (3 per district) -- 3 the party assigns, 12 are bonus delegates.... - Donald wins 19 max....
New Mexico awards 23 by district, 7 are at-large, 4 Pledged bonus Delegates and 9 UnPledged bonus Delegates.... - Donald wins 25 max....
Washington - Winner gets 10 -- 30 by district - 3 party - 1 bonus - Donald wins 25 max (more likely he wins 9)
Oregon - Winner gets 10 -- 15 by district - 3 party - Donald wins 19 max (more likely he wins 9)
California - 10 are given to winner -- the rest (159) are awarded at 3/district. 3 bonus delegates as well. -- Donald wins 100 max....

So -- that's likely 213 for Donald....he needs 273.....leaving him 60 short....

Leaving us with Indiana -- 57 WTA.....Indiana is GONNA be huge..... 60 short you can make an argument about "rules are rules". 3 short....not so sure.

So, Donald will either be short 3 - or short 60.....

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R

Great site if you want to learn how each state awards their delegates.....Good info. Easy to understand.
 
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Bamabuzzard

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What I don't understand is if a candidate won the voting in the primaries then how can he not be the candidate? I keep hearing that if Trump ends up having enough votes/delegates that the GOP can still keep him from being the candidate. I don't understand how that can happen. Isn't that basically saying "Okay American people, we know y'all voted to have this guy as the candidate. But we don't agree so we're going to override y'alls votes." I don't understand how that can work.
 

TideEngineer08

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What I don't understand is if a candidate won the voting in the primaries then how can he not be the candidate? I keep hearing that if Trump ends up having enough votes/delegates that the GOP can still keep him from being the candidate. I don't understand how that can happen. Isn't that basically saying "Okay American people, we know y'all voted to have this guy as the candidate. But we don't agree so we're going to override y'alls votes." I don't understand how that can work.
Not sure how it works either but I think it's bad for the GOP either way. Very bad.
 

bamachile

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What I don't understand is if a candidate won the voting in the primaries then how can he not be the candidate? I keep hearing that if Trump ends up having enough votes/delegates that the GOP can still keep him from being the candidate. I don't understand how that can happen. Isn't that basically saying "Okay American people, we know y'all voted to have this guy as the candidate. But we don't agree so we're going to override y'alls votes." I don't understand how that can work.
They can ignore the people completely if they want, it's legal. That doesn't make it wise. Both parties find themselves in an uncomfortable position this cycle, but it would behoove them both to refuse to interfere with the will of the people if they care for their long-term health. They may find their best answer in heavily influencing the VP selections.

With that said, I can't imagine worse front runners for either party. Ugh.
 

Bamabuzzard

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They can ignore the people completely if they want, it's legal. That doesn't make it wise. Both parties find themselves in an uncomfortable position this cycle, but it would behoove them both to refuse to interfere with the will of the people if they care for their long-term health. They may find their best answer in heavily influencing the VP selections.

With that said, I can't imagine worse front runners for either party. Ugh.
This maybe a bit of a knee jerk reaction but there is such a ground swell of support for Trump that if the GOP overrides the votes of the people who nominated him. I wonder if we might see the white version of Ferguson, MO. People are simply so fed up with anyone associated with the "establishment" that Trump (as bad of a candidate as he is) has benefited. Think about it. How bad has it gotten with people who are supposed to know how to run our country that someone like Trump is even appealing? To me that's an indictment on how things have gotten in Washington more so than on Trump.
 

CajunCrimson

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Here's the thing.....these aren't elections.....when you have an election - you elect someone -- no one is being elected, they are being selected to run in an election.

The Republican Party COULD not have any primaries or caucuses and completely 100% choose their nominee. The smaller parties (Green, Constitution, etc) don't have primaries....nominees are completely selected at conventions....the GOP could do that.

People think that these are elections....they aren't.
 

Bamabuzzard

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Here's the thing.....these aren't elections.....when you have an election - you elect someone -- no one is being elected, they are being selected to run in an election.

The Republican Party COULD not have any primaries or caucuses and completely 100% choose their nominee. The smaller parties (Green, Constitution, etc) don't have primaries....nominees are completely selected at conventions....the GOP could do that.

People think that these are elections....they aren't.
That's fine. But if the majority of people want Candidate A as the presidential candidate and a very small group of people say "No, we don't care what the majority want we don't want him so we're going to go with who we want." I don't see how that is allowed.
 

crimsonaudio

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That's fine. But if the majority of people want Candidate A as the presidential candidate and a very small group of people say "No, we don't care what the majority want we don't want him so we're going to go with who we want." I don't see how that is allowed.
It might be allowed, but it's also a way to virtually guarantee an opponent's victory as voters stay home.
 

TheAccountant

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That's fine. But if the majority of people want Candidate A as the presidential candidate and a very small group of people say "No, we don't care what the majority want we don't want him so we're going to go with who we want." I don't see how that is allowed.
Trump will have more primary votes than any other Republican candidate in history when it's all said and done. Only a Cruz supporter will cling to their last vestige of hope in using the literal definition of election when the actual primary vote is so definitive against and embarrassing for their guy.

I've got my fingers crossed for a brokered convention that doesn't give Trump the nod. Perhaps then a viable 3rd party will form that helps keep the other two somewhat in check. I may not agree with what that 3rd party ultimately runs but any counter-weight to what we have now is a good thing.
 

Tide1986

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Here are the last 10 states left before the Convention.

According to Real Clear Politics -- Donald has 954 Delegates, Cruz has 562 and Kasich has 153. Rubio has 170ish....

The number needed is 1237.... So, Donald needs 273 delegates.....

  • Tue, May 3 Indiana 57 (WTA) Open
  • Tue, May 10 Nebraska 36 (WTA) Closed
  • Tue, May 10 West Virginia 34 Mixed
  • Tue, May 17 Oregon 28 (P) Closed
  • Tue, May 24 Washington* 44 (P) Closed
  • Tue, Jun 7 California 172 (P) Mixed
  • Tue, Jun 7 Montana 27 (WTA) Open
  • Tue, Jun 7 New Jersey 51 (WTA) Mixed
  • Tue, Jun 7 New Mexico 24 Closed
  • Tue, Jun 7 South Dakota 29 (WTA) Closed

Trump should win 51 from New Jersey.... (it's Winner Take All)
He will get shut out in SD, Montana, and Nebraska....
West Virginia gives 10 for winner -- and 9 are awarded (3 per district) -- 3 the party assigns, 12 are bonus delegates.... - Donald wins 19 max....
New Mexico awards 23 by district, 7 are at-large, 4 Pledged bonus Delegates and 9 UnPledged bonus Delegates.... - Donald wins 25 max....
Washington - Winner gets 10 -- 30 by district - 3 party - 1 bonus - Donald wins 25 max (more likely he wins 9)
Oregon - Winner gets 10 -- 15 by district - 3 party - Donald wins 19 max (more likely he wins 9)
California - 10 are given to winner -- the rest (159) are awarded at 3/district. 3 bonus delegates as well. -- Donald wins 100 max....

So -- that's likely 213 for Donald....he needs 273.....leaving him 60 short....

Leaving us with Indiana -- 57 WTA.....Indiana is GONNA be huge..... 60 short you can make an argument about "rules are rules". 3 short....not so sure.

So, Donald will either be short 3 - or short 60.....

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R

Great site if you want to learn how each state awards their delegates.....Good info. Easy to understand.
Regarding the Rubio delegates, looks like at least 34 of his 172 delegates are unbound for the first ballot:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...s-are-grabs-convention-s-first-ballot-n555706
 

CajunCrimson

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Trump will have more primary votes than any other Republican candidate in history when it's all said and done. Only a Cruz supporter will cling to their last vestige of hope in using the literal definition of election when the actual primary vote is so definitive against and embarrassing for their guy.

I've got my fingers crossed for a brokered convention that doesn't give Trump the nod. Perhaps then a viable 3rd party will form that helps keep the other two somewhat in check. I may not agree with what that 3rd party ultimately runs but any counter-weight to what we have now is a good thing.
Only because he's getting the White DEM vote in the NE and SE.....who won't vote for him in the General. Closed primaries you aren't seeing the same numbers.

Hillary got more votes then Trump in Pennsylvania.....to me that says quite a bit about his chances in PA in the General.

That's the biggest problem with Trump -- people think he can win states most Republicans can't win. But, which ones? He won't win in NY. He won't win in NJ. He won't win in PA. He won't win in MD. So, where will his "crossover appeal" benefit the GOP?

I just don't see it.
 

jthomas666

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What I don't understand is if a candidate won the voting in the primaries then how can he not be the candidate? I keep hearing that if Trump ends up having enough votes/delegates that the GOP can still keep him from being the candidate. I don't understand how that can happen. Isn't that basically saying "Okay American people, we know y'all voted to have this guy as the candidate. But we don't agree so we're going to override y'alls votes." I don't understand how that can work.
Basically, in the Mid 60s, when the primary system evolved, the parties were concerned that the ignorant populace might nominate some extremist whackjob instead of someone more centrist (I think Humphrey was the specific catalyst, but I may be wrong). So both parties basically set up some loopholes so that they could save the populace from themselves.

Their error was a lack of imagination--they never dreamed that so many whackjobs would be running. ;)
 

Displaced Bama Fan

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Basically, in the Mid 60s, when the primary system evolved, the parties were concerned that the ignorant populace might nominate some extremist whackjob instead of someone more centrist (I think Humphrey was the specific catalyst, but I may be wrong). So both parties basically set up some loopholes so that they could save the populace from themselves.

Their error was a lack of imagination--they never dreamed that so many whackjobs would be running. ;)
4 to be specific. Kasich seems to be the only "centrist" candidate at this point.
 

Gr8hope

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If Trump reaches the 1237 delegates on the fist ballot, he wins. If not the unbound delegates can vote for any other candidate who won at least 8 States. This is by the rules and no cheating has occurred, despite what some have said. Now if the rules are changed that could change. I support Cruz but only want a win by the rules. If you win by cheating or lying, like Trump, what is that worth?

For those who insist the popular vote should decide because of democracy, we do not live in a democracy, we live in a republic. Many even oppose the Electoral College but stop and think what would happen with a true democratic process in elections. The mob would rule, and the repercussions would be tragic. The mob can vote anything for themselves they want.
 

CajunCrimson

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If Trump reaches the 1237 delegates on the fist ballot, he wins. If not the unbound delegates can vote for any other candidate who won at least 8 States. This is by the rules and no cheating has occurred, despite what some have said. Now if the rules are changed that could change. I support Cruz but only want a win by the rules. If you win by cheating or lying, like Trump, what is that worth?

For those who insist the popular vote should decide because of democracy, we do not live in a democracy, we live in a republic. Many even oppose the Electoral College but stop and think what would happen with a true democratic process in elections. The mob would rule, and the repercussions would be tragic. The mob can vote anything for themselves they want.
The funny thing is -- is that:

primaries are to delegates = as elections are to electoral votes = as passing laws are to legislators......

One single vote/person, etc -- represents the votes of dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions.....but that vote doesn't have to match the will of those dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions -- that person votes the way they think is best....

Every town that has a Town Council or School Board - uses the very same process......

It's funny how all of a sudden this same process offends so many.
 

Bamabuzzard

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The funny thing is -- is that:

primaries are to delegates = as elections are to electoral votes = as passing laws are to legislators......

One single vote/person, etc -- represents the votes of dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions.....but that vote doesn't have to match the will of those dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions -- that person votes the way they think is best....

Every town that has a Town Council or School Board - uses the very same process......

It's funny how all of a sudden this same process offends so many.
I think it shows there is no perfect system. The quality of the people many times determines the quality of the system. It is true what Gr8hope said in that if popular vote were the law of the land then the "mob would rule". Now I'm not sure if he meant the literal "Mob" (organized crime) or just in a general sense that a big group of people could vote something in regardless of it's benefit or practicality. They could do it simply because they were the majority.

However, I'll say this. If the quality of the people who have been given power within the republic system become corrupt. I'm not sure we're that much better off. Again, I'm not saying ditch what we have. Just making a point that there are no perfect systems and many times the effectiveness of the system is based on the quality of the people. And I'll be honest, I'm losing faith in the people charged with running our republic.
 

TheAccountant

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Only because he's getting the White DEM vote in the NE and SE.....who won't vote for him in the General. Closed primaries you aren't seeing the same numbers.

Hillary got more votes then Trump in Pennsylvania.....to me that says quite a bit about his chances in PA in the General.


That's the biggest problem with Trump -- people think he can win states most Republicans can't win. But, which ones? He won't win in NY. He won't win in NJ. He won't win in PA. He won't win in MD. So, where will his "crossover appeal" benefit the GOP?

I just don't see it.
Pennsylvania is one of those closed primaries you said Trump wasn't doing so well in. He beat Cruz by 550k votes and beat Cruz/Kasich combined by 250k votes.

There are almost a million more registered dems in that state so of course Hillary is going to get more votes, especially when it's only a two person race. Hillary only got 26k more total votes than him.

You Cruz guys are fun.
 
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CajunCrimson

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Pennsylvania is one of those closed primaries you said Trump wasn't doing so well in. He beat Cruz by 550k votes and beat Cruz/Kasich combined by 250k votes.

There are almost a million more registered dems in that state so of course Hillary is going to get more votes, especially when it's only a two person race. Hillary only got 26k more total votes than him.

You Cruz guys are fun.
Well -- let's look at it this way. Bernie got 700K votes -- not sure how many of those are going to go with Trump. So, I'm guessing that more Bernie voters will go with Hillary -- then Kasich/Cruz voters will go with Trump.

Which means -- that Trump is very unlikely NOT to win PA --

Which ultimately proves my point. He can get all the wins in the NE and SE he wants, because it won't matter in the General anyway.

He can't win the General --

At this point -- my push for Cruz is mostly about -- letting a real conservative lose to Hillary so we won't think that Donald is now the official "right" in this country....

At least then in 4 years....we still have a conservative right edge to work from.....not just Middle-Left, Far-Left, and Bernie
 

TheAccountant

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At this point -- my push for Cruz is mostly about -- letting a real conservative lose to Hillary so we won't think that Donald is now the official "right" in this country....

At least then in 4 years....we still have a conservative right edge to work from.....not just Middle-Left, Far-Left, and Bernie
Your party had 8 years of railing against Obama and his policies to set a "real conservative" up for the nomination. Moderates McCain and Romney got the nod last two go-arounds. This time 17 people with all types of conservative credentials put their hat in the ring and Donald Trump beat them all.

Your "conservative edge" is rather blunt with the republican voting populace it seems.
 

CajunCrimson

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Your party had 8 years of railing against Obama and his policies to set a "real conservative" up for the nomination. Moderates McCain and Romney got the nod last two go-arounds. This time 17 people with all types of conservative credentials put their hat in the ring and Donald Trump beat them all.

Your "conservative edge" is rather blunt with the republican voting populace it seems.
Donald? Is that you? Nah -- can't be.....too many big words
 

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