"The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Kelly probably played more snaps than Reed and Robinson combined

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

crimsonaudio said:

I believe more than 32 players receive first round grades.

Each NFL team has their own metrics they use. It's akin to why Saban doesn't offer every 5* player he scouts.

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I've wondered about how many players get a first round grade. It would strongly devalue the grading process if they gave many more than the possible number of slots. But even so, this is more about how a guy with a first round grade slips, and I'm trying to ask a different question, namely, how a guy who is not even a first round quality player gets misinformed such that he chooses to leave.

rgw said:

Robinson didn't request a grade from the advisory board to open up more opportunities for other junior players on the team. He went solely on Saban's back-channel advisement of contacts.


Simply put it is uncommon for players with Robinson's profile to go in the first round. Suh and Fairley who were dominant interior pass rushers are the typical first round DT types. Pass rush and coverage is the premium of today's defensive draft value. Run-stuffers are devalued right now.

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I didn't know AR had relied solely upon back channels for information. Is that something reported by journalists or something people in the know just know?

I accept the notion that run-stuffers are devalued to a degree, but I'm not sure one can conclude therefore that Reed and Robinson just weren't first round quality players. There is another element of context here... I think what may have happened in this draft is that the depth of the overall DT class worked against the truly elite guys. If the drop off in quality is steep after, say, the first 4 guys, then there will be a run on that position. But if it is likely that you can get a guy who you can live with (albeit less elite) in the next round, you go for the position that is thin. I think a lot of teams may have used that same logic, and as each team passed on the elite guy, it became all the more likely for teams to be able to reach into the second round. If just one other team early on had gone with a DT instead of a some other position, there may have been a run on tackles instead, but the knowledge that a good DT would be available later may have tipped the scales just as much as the fact that the league itself is pass happy.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

LA4Bama said:

I've wondered about how many players get a first round grade. It would strongly devalue the grading process if they gave many more than the possible number of slots. But even so, this is more about how a guy with a first round grade slips, and I'm trying to ask a different question, namely, how a guy who is not even a first round quality player gets misinformed such that he chooses to leave.

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Draft grades are given out in late December. So much can change in those 4 months from current players retiring or opting out of a contract to evaluation showing this player deserves more attention than that player to a player getting arrested to an outstanding combine performance causing more film review of a player to a top guy having a horrible pro day leading to some questioning of a team's position on said player.

I didn't know AR had relied solely upon back channels for information. Is that something reported by journalists or something people in the know just know?

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He told reporters during one of the bowl media sessions he didn't request a draft grade.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

BamaMoon said:

It's also obvious the NFL is an offensive league and that defense is of secondary iimportance to some teams.

Dallas is a great example. They needed help on the defensive side and what do they do with their first pick? Take a running back instead of helping their D.

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I am going to ask you the same thing I did to sip last night, which there was no response, based on what do you make your conclusion of the NFL is an offensive league compared to college. More rules favor the defense in the NFL than they do in college. The 1st 10 picks in the draft are usually players that teams want to build their teams around or add to their current franchise player, the next 10 are mostly used for filling their absolute needs, and the last group is used basically for what they could use with what is left. Elliot is probably the best pick in the draft because the Cowboys really need a durable running back to complement romo.

As far as the bama players not being drafted take into account how many pick tosu and ole miss had. There were 8/31. That is over 1/4 picks. Also take into account the different philosophies of the teams. Some teams go off of what puts butts in seats, some teams randomly pick who is the best available according to scouts, some pick geographically, and some say "I don't care what they did in college, I only care about the last 2.5 months". The only teams that have a proven method are the pats and Hawks.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Looking at the DL's they took in the 1st round they tended to have nice sack totals, like 10 or more sacks. A'Shawn had 3.5 What is ironic is that Jonathan Allen had 12 sacks and would according to what we have seen would have put him in the 1st round of the draft, yet he stayed for one more year. I think Allen has a chance to increase that number next season and make himself very rich.

Our defense is designed to stop the other team, not necessarily get stats for people. Having said that I think most sack ability is born, not made. Some players just have a way of getting past blockers and others do so with effort but it takes too much time.

The notion that we work our players too hard and they are worn out is absurd. If we were in that much better shape than other teams then we would be winning a lot more easily. As it is every game is a fight to the finish. If there is any issue with Alabama players it is that their potential is tapped at Alabama while at other schools they sometimes just loaf along for a few years. These scouts are so obsessed with finding the "diamond in the rough" that they can miss the diamond sitting in the ring that is right in front of them. The bust rate from first rounders is not high but the number of all-pro players that comes from the first round is absurdly low. This all goes back to ego. The NFL scouts all want to pull a rabbit out of the hat and have someone slap their shoulder and call them a genius. Just picking a guy who is obviously great gets you no street cred. It's like buying a new car with a 100K bumper to bumper warranty. That doesn't make you a car guy. IT makes you a guy who wrote a big check. Finding the 68 mustang with 1000 miles on it in the old widow's garage makes you the car guy.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Allen is going to be our highest DL pick since Dareus imo.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

rgw said:

Don't buy anything said during this time of year. It is all posturing. There will be a lot of Bama players going to teams today and most will end up being starters. The first round is just an arbitrary cut off line on "elite" players invented by the media. The NFL GMs expect to get starter-quality players into the 3rd round (usually the top 100 players or so). While the lower draft selection means less money, it also gives the player an earlier opportunity at the market to make FA money. Ragland kinda got a screw job last night but it is pretty common for ILBs to fall into the 2nd day and I have no doubt that in 4 years he will be inking a huge deal with even more guaranteed money.

And I've said this before: Reed and Robinson just weren't first round quality players if you have any context on how how draft valuation works. They aren't proven pass rushers and really seem to be scheme limited in terms of viability for the NFL game. The capacity for pass rush development is a valid point in the recruiting process out of high school but this is the professional game and they're drafting for day 1 performance not development in the first 100 or so picks. They're two-gap, run-stopping defensive linemen built for a 34 defense and that specialty has rarely had 1st round value unless they're transcendent talent: JJ Watt, Marcel Dareus, etc.

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This. Great observation about what teams are looking out of DLinemen in today's NFL. For this reason, I wonder if JA or Tim Williams will be higher picks next season because they've proven they can do this?

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

TNElephantitis said:

This. Great observation about what teams are looking out of DLinemen in today's NFL. For this reason, I wonder if JA or Tim Williams will be higher picks next season because they've proven they can do this?

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Definitely. They both had double digit sacks last year and should both have double digit sacks this year. Both could be top 10 picks. I've seen several scouts that said they will have Allen as the #1 overall prospect and Tim Williams and Cam Robinson as top 15 prospects..

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

rgw said:

And I've said this before: Reed and Robinson just weren't first round quality players if you have any context on how how draft valuation works. They aren't proven pass rushers and really seem to be scheme limited in terms of viability for the NFL game. The capacity for pass rush development is a valid point in the recruiting process out of high school but this is the professional game and they're drafting for day 1 performance not development in the first 100 or so picks. They're two-gap, run-stopping defensive linemen built for a 34 defense and that specialty has rarely had 1st round value unless they're transcendent talent: JJ Watt, Marcel Dareus, etc.

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I get that this is what has been said about them, but A'shawn had more sacks this year and in his career than what's his name from ole miss. He also had more TFLs this year and in his career.

I also don't buy that all they are is two-gap run stoppers, even though that is what they get asked to do a lot at Bama. Two gap run stoppers don't stand flat footed with no running start and jump completely over the OL to block a field goal, and they don't run down plays all the way to the sideline like we saw Reed do several times.

keep in mind that we play in an even, 4 man like way more than we do a 34 front since we run nickel and dime packages significantly more than our base 34. In that front they are basically DTs, although we often put one of them out as a DE instead of inside.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Robinson and Nkemdiche are different style players. But then again, you dont have many 290 lb players as quick as that guy. as long as he stays out of trouble, he's going to be a steal. he moves like an OLB

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Nick Saban rotates all players out, except the QB/OL/DBs at rates far greater than almost any other team. Last year we rotated nearly 10 DL! There is no way either of these players were overworked.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

TideEngineer08 said:

Nick Saban rotates all players out, except the QB/OL/DBs at rates far greater than almost any other team. Last year we rotated nearly 10 DL! There is no way either of these players were overworked.

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Exactly. I thought this was what was so special about our defenses the last two seasons? We were able to rotate our entire line in and out partly in order to keep them fresh and to protect them from the rigors of defending the HUNH. These guys are way fresher than Dareus, Hightower, Mosley and Upshaw were when they were playing in T-town

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Haven't read all the replies but I think what happened last night was all about need at a position, timing and posturing for hopes of what may be available in the second round. Believe it or not many teams may see the second round, depending on how many picks they have, as the better round for them to pick from. The second and third round may be the make or break, payoff rounds for several teams!!

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

If you go in round 2 of the NFL draft you are an elite talent and player. We go crazy over signing a top 50 recruit out of high school. I know there is a money drop off, but getting drafted at all is something, but in the first three rounds it is an amazing opportunity and should be gratifying. The perspective is hard to maintain because they played so well at Bama, were major contributors to championships.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

While our guys contracts' may be smaller than anticipated, their advantage is that they work hard, get valued by a number of clubs, and their don't have to worry about a 4th year option being taken by the club they eventually end up at. DJ Fluker just had his 5th year option taken up, so it will be another year before he can test the free agent waters. If San Diego then put the franchise tag on him for his 7th year, he will have to wait yet another year. I don't believe Second Round thru Seventh Round have those restrictions.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

TNElephantitis said:

This. Great observation about what teams are looking out of DLinemen in today's NFL. For this reason, I wonder if JA or Tim Williams will be higher picks next season because they've proven they can do this?

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If they both have seasons on par with their 2015 production then I think both will be first round draft picks. Williams needs to show he can hold up just good enough against the run that he won't be a liability. Allen pretty much just needs another year like 2015 because I thought he was the best prospect of the 3 defensive linemen anyway.

gtgilbert said:

I get that this is what has been said about them, but A'shawn had more sacks this year and in his career than what's his name from ole miss. He also had more TFLs this year and in his career.

I also don't buy that all they are is two-gap run stoppers, even though that is what they get asked to do a lot at Bama. Two gap run stoppers don't stand flat footed with no running start and jump completely over the OL to block a field goal, and they don't run down plays all the way to the sideline like we saw Reed do several times.

keep in mind that we play in an even, 4 man like way more than we do a 34 front since we run nickel and dime packages significantly more than our base 34. In that front they are basically DTs, although we often put one of them out as a DE instead of inside.

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A'shawn is really good as far as 34 NTs go in terms of helping his OLBs in pass rush. He's not just fighting around at the line of scrimmage, he's pushing the pocket back and forcing the QB into the outside guys. Most NTs are really great compliments to their ILBs in the run game but A'shawn developed into a guy who was helping Ragland and Foster in run situations AND helping Williams and Allen in pass situations. He's the best nose tackle we've ever had at Alabama but he's still a nose tackle and unlikely to be a superstar for a team. I really kinda hope he goes to the Pats to fill their loss of Wilfork last year.

The thing to understand that I'm not knocking their talent. Positions and skillsets just have value and there are plenty of hall of famers who didn't go in the first round.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

How long before we hear Cowherd and the other talking heads enlightening us with their "always-so-accurate-predictions". "No first rounders for Bama! Folks, the dynasty is over. Saban is washed up and needs to get out"

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

Unless Ryan Kelly's pulling the ultimate heel move, they're not getting that take this year. He was taken really high for a center to boot.

Re: "The problem with (projected first-round Alabama players in the NFL draft) is..."

rgw said:

If they both have seasons on par with their 2015 production then I think both will be first round draft picks. Williams needs to show he can hold up just good enough against the run that he won't be a liability. Allen pretty much just needs another year like 2015 because I thought he was the best prospect of the 3 defensive linemen anyway.




A'shawn is really good as far as 34 NTs go in terms of helping his OLBs in pass rush. He's not just fighting around at the line of scrimmage, he's pushing the pocket back and forcing the QB into the outside guys. Most NTs are really great compliments to their ILBs in the run game but A'shawn developed into a guy who was helping Ragland and Foster in run situations AND helping Williams and Allen in pass situations. He's the best nose tackle we've ever had at Alabama but he's still a nose tackle and unlikely to be a superstar for a team. I really kinda hope he goes to the Pats to fill their loss of Wilfork last year.

The thing to understand that I'm not knocking their talent. Positions and skillsets just have value and there are plenty of hall of famers who didn't go in the first round.

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Ashawn barely played as a NT. That was more often Lake, then Payne once he overtook Lake. Ashawn was most often a DE in the 34, or a DT when we went to an even front. When we played our 'light' 34 Reed typically went inside with Allen and Robinson to the outside.