Sidebar

Link: New No. 1 in preseason FPI

A

ALA2262

All-American
Aug 4, 2007
4,977
393
102
Cumming, GA
Preseason FPI 3.0: New No. 1

"One of the main reasons we decided to rerun FPI is that LSU, the No. 1 team in preseason FPI 2.0, lost an offensive starter, according to Steele. This occurred because two wide receivers (John Diarse and Trey Quinn) transferred this offseason. Since they combined for seven starts in 2015, Steele counted those players as one lost starter.

As a result, Florida State moved up to No. 1 in Preseason FPI 3.0. The Seminoles return all 11 offensive starters, including running back Dalvin Cook, to a unit that has ranked in the top 25 of efficiency in each of the past four years. Florida State also has had four straight top-10 recruiting classes, according toESPN’s Class Rankings, including the No. 1 class in 2016, No. 2 class in 2015 and No. 3 class in 2014."

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/117929/new-no-1-in-preseason-fpi


 
A

ALA2262

All-American
Aug 4, 2007
4,977
393
102
Cumming, GA
CrimsonForce

CrimsonForce

Hall of Fame
Dec 20, 2012
12,757
94
67
seebell said:
Good. I think it's better to start low and work our way up. More incentive.
Click to expand...
FPI is a useless ESPN metric and has no bearing on the AP poll or playoff committee. Alabama won't be starting low. Will probably be #1 or #2 in the AP/coaches preseason poll..
 
Last edited:
U

uafanataum

All-American
Oct 18, 2014
2,917
1,366
182
ALA2262 said:
Appears to be based primarily on returning starters. If so, then I'm surprised the margin between ut and Bama is not greater than 2/10 of a point. Bama returns 11 starters, and ut 17.
Click to expand...
The people replacing our lost starters on defense were probably in the rotation regularly last season, so we did not lose as much experience as it looks on paper.
 
A

Alasippi

Suspended
Aug 31, 2007
12,875
2
57
Ocean Springs, MS
I never been impressed when a team that lost four or five games the previous season has a bunch of starters coming back.
If they couldn't win last year then they're probably going to have difficulty winning this year as well.
 
Matt0424

Matt0424

All-American
Jan 16, 2010
3,909
0
55
Hoover, Al
afadam07 said:
Tennessee is projected to have a better season that us in the full FPI list:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi

I don't know what the math calculations are for this, but I'm curious to see how this plays out.
Click to expand...
Returning starters, strength of schedule, recruoting, and past record all play in to determining FPI.

Without looking at it, and responding to comments from posters here:

I've been saying since January, FSU is the team to beat in the ACC (Clemson is quite literally a one man show this year), and are better than their National Title team from 2013. FPI agrees, but let's see if Jimbo can keep the ship floating.

Tennessee is projected more wins than us because the schedule sets up for them to do so. It's easily conceivable they go 11-1, even losing to us, and finish with a better record.

FPI is not a poll, and doesn't indicate where anyone thinks we should be ranked in the preseason. Right now it is just giving an overview of which teams have the best chances, on "paper" I might add, to be successful.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
B1GTide

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,587
47,157
187
I am not sure how they weight things, and they don't make that clear. But consider this - LSU's offense last year was pathetic when facing tough defenses. They return a lot of starters - big deal. Without a coach, they will struggle to score again. And next year they get a new offensive coordinator. That should further slant this metric against them, but it does not.

I like LSU's chances next year, but I have no idea what kind of offense they are going to put on the field because there are too many unknowns, even with the returning starters.

And any metric that puts weight on coaching and recruiting classes has to have Alabama at the top - period. Those two things outweigh everything else, IMO. This one only uses coaching as a metric where these is a coaching change, and seemingly only at the top. That is stupid.
 
A

ALA2262

All-American
Aug 4, 2007
4,977
393
102
Cumming, GA
LSU wasn't all that bad in 2015. They lost but 3 games. All 3 in successive weeks to the 3 best teams in the best division in CFB. Three teams that went 1-1 in their round robin against each other.

The killer was the first against Bama. All of these teams taking byes before Bama need to request the week after Bama be left open so that they can use it for a bye. To get their butts well and their heads put back on straight! LSU probably could not have beaten Arkansas State the week after Bama, much less Arkansas.

Miles is still backed up against the ropes down there. He is good in that spot. I don't believe he gets knocked out.
 
Last edited:
KrAzY3

KrAzY3

Hall of Fame
Jan 18, 2006
10,617
4,542
187
44
kraizy.art
Returning starters is a very good measure of how a team will do the following season. For example it's hard to argue with where Ohio State is since they lost so many key guys. Alabama though, they tend to defy this particular measure of future success.
 
TUSKtimes

TUSKtimes

1st Team
Sep 18, 2008
563
0
35
Right here, Right now
In the land of geekdom, there is no rational, no pragmatic thought about where we are going nor where we've been. Just metrics to try to explain away what they emotionally fear most. The eye test. Those testy humans who keep insisting on what they see.

For years, we watched on the front row, as humans projected this weeks BCS favorites. At the same time, in our alternate universe, in geekville, those computers where just as adamant, insisting metrics was singing a different tune. Coaches and media, swearing up and down, it's Alabama, it's LSU. Metrics screaming, don't forget Boise State. And what about Oregon and Baylor with their point a minute numerical dominance?

People keep asking, who is this FPI we speak of these days? You don't know?

Why, it's none other then the second coming of our alternate universe of geekdom. Geeks, still determined they never saw a metric they didn't believe told the true story. In this brave new world of a human playoff committee, their greatest fear, the eye test, it's back.
 
IMALOYAL1

IMALOYAL1

All-American
Oct 28, 2000
3,927
246
187
Birmingham AL
No metric can measure team chemistry and motivation. You think Ole Miss is motivated against Memphis like it is against Bama? Same goes for much of the SEC.
I just hope Alabama can keep motivated each game, and find a good QB. We'll have a chance to be in the playoff if this happens.
 
B

BAMAfan777

1st Team
Jun 25, 2010
668
146
62
Pre-season polls are worthless.

Look at historic pre-season polls, and actual results......proof is in the pudding.

RTR!!!!!!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

New Posts

Latest threads

TideFans.shop - NEW Stuff!

TideFans.shop - Get YOUR Bama Gear HERE!”></a> <br /> <!--/ END TideFans.shop & item link \--> <p style= Purchases made through our TideFans.shop and Amazon.com links may result in a commission being paid to TideFans.

Top Bottom