Re: It has come to this - Brexit voting later today in the UK...
XE Market Analysis: North America - Jun 24, 2016
Currency markets settled in a confused stasis after the dramatic moves during the Asian session as the reality of Brexit became increasingly apparent. Cable was sitting with a 7.8% net loss on the day, at 1.3700 as of the early European PM session, having shown a record-breaking 11% decline at the 1.3231 intraday low. GBP-JPY was also off is lows, but it still showing a net 11.4% decline. EUR-USD, meanwhile, was off by 2.2% and EUR-CHF was 0.5% for the worse, despite confirmed SNB intervention. Commodity and other high beta currencies, along with European currencies, have been the ex-sterling currency underperformers today. AUD-USD lost 3% and USD-CAD gain by over 2%. European currencies have also taken a beating, with the Norwegian and Swedish crowns and eastern European currencies all underperforming the euro, which itself is notably underperforming the other G3 currencies, with the yen and the dollar the Brexit safe haven currencies of choice.
[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD plummeted from levels above 1.1400 to a three-month low of 1.0911 before recouping to the upper 110s. The euro is set to remain an underperformer in forex markets amid post-Brexit concerns about the broader euro project. Resistance is at 1.1098-1.1100.
[GBP, USD]
Sterling saw record-breaking losses as the UK opted for Brexit. Uncertainty now prevails. Will there be a general election (less than 200 of the 650 members of parliament supported Brexit)? Will Scotland and Northern Ireland vote to leave the UK (both having voted to remain part of the single market? What happens to investment, consumer spending etc during a "transition" period that could be more than two years? How long before the ratings agencies chop the UK's triple A status (S&P and Moody's issued informal warnings today)? What implications with this have on the broader European Project? Brexiters will celebrate their victory, but the near- to-medium term economic future is not looking bright for the UK. Risk-off positioning is likely to dominate for the foreseeable, with sterling to remain firmly under the cosh.