Game Thread: It has come to this - UK votes to leave the EU

Tidewater

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Not hysterical, but I see a couple of counterpoints.

There is nothing stopping the UK from retaining EU standards for trade, if they are rational. If not, is it wise to retain them? Tariff rates are still at historically low levels, so the tariff barrier between British producers and European consumers will not be that great.

As for immigration, I believe that there is an enormous difference between a young Pole or Romanian moving west in search of a job and an Arab (or Eritrean or Bangladeshi) "refugee" looking for a social safety net. The former is culturally westernized, secularized, reads a language that at least uses Latin script and are an economic blessing for the UK. The latter is a whole bundle social and security problems with substantially smaller tangible benefit to the UK (other than allowing some Brits to feel "nice" about themselves). The Brits can still allow the former in. They will now have a choice about the latter.

I believe the bigger issue is getting while the getting is good. My state waited too long, hoping against hope that the central government and the other members of the union would reform themselves. When my state finally stirred itself to free itself from an abusive union, the central authority killed 30,000 of the citizens who would dare opt out and destroyed millions in property. Right now the EU does not have the military might to force the UK to stay, but did you notice how testy Jean-Claude Juncker got at the press conference? Central authorities do not like having their power circumscribed. Who knows how vicious Juncker's successor will be in 50 years, and how he would act if, instead of now, the UK opted out 50 years hence?
 
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Bodhisattva

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Right now the EU does not have the military might to force the UK to stay, but did you notice how testy Jean-Claude Juncker got at the press conference? Central authorities do not like having their power circumscribed. Who knows how vicious Juncker's successor will be in 50 years, and how he would act if, instead of now, the UK opted out 50 years hence?
This is one of the many things I find amusing/interesting about this whole saga. The centralizers are acting like Britain stole something from them. That kind of attitude should give anyone pause. And as you mentioned, what happens later if the centralizers have a military behind them?
 

Tidewater

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This is one of the many things I find amusing/interesting about this whole saga. The centralizers are acting like Britain stole something from them.
In a way, they did, at least as Europe sees it.
The Daily Telegraph said:
£12.9 billion is around £35 million a day. That’s less than the £55 million-a-day figure that a lot of people campaigning the leave the EU cite.
Okay, so the Leave guys were saying £55 million a day. "Tosh," the remainers said, "It's really only £35 million a day!"
Okay, but that is still £35 million a day. And that is now £35 million a day less than the EU had a week ago. No wonder Juncker's testy.
If you and I are in business together and I am spending "our" joint money like a drunken sailor, and you say, "Hey, you know what? I think I'm out of here. Best of luck. See you later. This partnership is dissolved." Would you be stealing money from me?


From the article:
The biggest losers from being in the EU were: Germany, France, Italy, the UK.
The biggest winners were: Spain, Greece, Portugal and Belgium.
 
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crimsonaudio

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Okay, so the Leave guys were saying £55 million a day. "Tosh," the remainers said, "It's really only £35 million a day!"
Okay, but that is still £35 million a day. And that is now £35 million a day less than the EU had a week ago. No wonder Juncker's testy.
Almost £13 billion per yer - yikes!
 

Tide1986

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good read. this part was thoughtful, imho
Interestingly the author himself is showing an unwillingness to "skate where the puck will be". He is clutching his nostalgia quite tightly. Nevertheless, being that he's an entrepreneur, I'm sure he'll ultimately find new opportunities to exploit.
 

Tidewater

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Membership in the EU is not much of a problem as long as the Union does not assert that members cannot leave.
There were a lot of men sitting in Philadelphia and there various state conventions in 1787-1790 who felt it was absurd that a voluntary union would ever be so bold as to deny that its members might voluntarily withdraw.
James Wilson of Penn. said:
Those that first said [the Constitution's supremacy clause] gave to Congress the power of superseding the state governments, cannot persist in it; for no person can, with a tolerable face, read the clauses over, and infer that such may be the consequence.
Edmund Randolph said:
We, the people, possessing all power, form a government, such as we think will secure happiness: and suppose, in adopting this plan, we should be mistaken in the end; where is the cause of alarm on that quarter? In the same plan we point out an easy and quiet method of reforming what may be found amiss. No, but, say gentlemen, we have put the introduction of that method in the hands of our servants, who will interrupt it from motives of self-interest. What then? We will resist, did my friend say? conveying an idea of force. Who shall dare to resist the people? No, we will assemble in Convention; wholly recall our delegated powers, or reform them so as to prevent such abuse; and punish those servants who have perverted powers, designed for our happiness, to their own emolument. We ought to be extremely cautious not to be drawn into dispute with regular government, by faction and turbulence, its natural enemies. Here, then, sir, there is no cause of alarm on this side; but on the other side, rejecting of government, and dissolving of the Union, produce confusion and despotism.
Seems like an old debate.
 
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Aledinho

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Nigel Farage's speech to the EU. It was kind of humorous to hear him call for be grown up in one sentence and then insult the members in the next.
 

92tide

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Interestingly the author himself is showing an unwillingness to "skate where the puck will be". He is clutching his nostalgia quite tightly. Nevertheless, being that he's an entrepreneur, I'm sure he'll ultimately find new opportunities to exploit.
or maybe he is skating towards the puck to try to swat away an own goal
 

Tidewater

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Mr. Bond, the EU will not reform its bloated undemocratic bureaucracy without a number of significant members opting out. If the bloated undemocratic bureaucracy now sees the light and does actually reform itself, the UK can petition for readmission.
You did right.
I found a letter written by Jeremiah Clemens (a cousin of Samuel Clemens, aka Mark Twain), in a similar situation. An advocate of the Union, Samuel Ogden of Connecticut, had written Clemens in February 1861, begging his southern friend to give them more time to reform the Union. Clemens replied:
Jeremiah Clemens said:
The work of reconstruction must be begun and carried on by you, not by us. We have been reluctantly driven to disunion as the only refuge from slavery. ... Do you believe it possible that we can obtain either redress for the past, or security for the future? … Until you an answer these questions to my satisfaction neither my voice, nor my vote shall ever be given for a reconstruction of the Union. I have heard others say, and possibly you may say, that all these matters will be righted if we will only give you time. Very well, take as much time as you please. We do not propose to limit you at all in that matter, but we intend to remain out of the partnership until it is done. It is you business; go to work and do it. After it is finished, you will be in a condition to make propositions, and we can listen to them without dishonor. In the meantime, as a precaution against possible failure of you efforts, we will go on to build such a government as will be sufficient for the protection of our rights. … We have no demands to make, we propose no interference with your rights, and no curtailment of your privileges, unless you esteem it a privilege to rob and enslave us, ... It pains me to observe in the whole line of your letter a spirit of fault finding which is a bad augury for the future. You seem to think that you have something to complain of. You overlook the wrongs and outrages of which you have been guilty. … Very truly and respectfully. Yours, etc. JERE CLEMENS
The UK can remain out of the EU until the EU reforms itself, and then petition for readmission. If the EU does not reform itself (and I have to say that does not seem likely), then the UK will be insulated from the damage.
 
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Tidewater

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To someone who is deliberately or reflexively a statist and/or a centralizer, any devolution of power from the center is a calamity. The New Yorker appears to be in that category.

The Brexit: The Movie linked above explains that the EU has 10,000 bureaucrats in Brussels that make more in salary than the British Prime Minister. The EU is free to continue to pay them as much as they like, they will just have to do so without British dues. And the British will no longer have to subsidize the salaries of 10,000 people earning more than the PM.
 

92tide

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To someone who is deliberately or reflexively a statist and/or a centralizer, any devolution of power from the center is a calamity. The New Yorker appears to be in that category.

The Brexit: The Movie linked above explains that the EU has 10,000 bureaucrats in Brussels that make more in salary than the British Prime Minister. The EU is free to continue to pay them as much as they like, they will just have to do so without British dues. And the British will no longer have to subsidize the salaries of 10,000 people earning more than the PM.
you must be a blast at parties
 

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