Phil steele's pick for the 4 team playoff and the SEC bowl games

81usaf92

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If there are no undefeated teams...

If Alabama is 12-1 and SEC champions
If the Big Ten champion has 2 losses
If the PAC 12 champion has 2 losses
If Notre Dame has 2 losses
If LSU is 11-1 and the lone loss is to Alabama by less than 7 points..

Then you tell me how the SEC does not get 2 playoff teams. All of those things happening is very plausible. Frankly, the only thing I think isn't that plausible is LSU recovering from losing to us.
What he is predicting is Washington to win the PAC 12 with atleast 2 losses , ND being a 10-2 or 9-3 team,and tOsu to win the Big 10 with a loss in conference and to Oklahoma. So you and him are on the same page of how two 1 loss teams from the SECW make it in.
 

TideEngineer08

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What he is predicting is Washington to win the PAC 12 with atleast 2 losses , ND being a 10-2 or 9-3 team,and tOsu to win the Big 10 with a loss in conference and to Oklahoma. So you and him are on the same page of how two 1 loss teams from the SECW make it in.
Yes, and I just don't see how the committee could justify not including both Alabama and LSU in this scenario. Frankly, if Tennessee is 12-0 and loses to us in the SEC title game, falling to 12-1, then they have more of a legit claim at a playoff spot than do Washington, Ohio State, or Notre Dame in this scenario.
 

B1GTide

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If there are no undefeated teams...

If Alabama is 12-1 and SEC champions
If the Big Ten champion has 2 losses
If the PAC 12 champion has 2 losses
If Notre Dame has 2 losses
If LSU is 11-1 and the lone loss is to Alabama by less than 7 points..

Then you tell me how the SEC does not get 2 playoff teams. All of those things happening is very plausible. Frankly, the only thing I think isn't that plausible is LSU recovering from losing to us.
I can still see LSU left out in this scenario. I think that the late loss by LSU to Alabama and not playing on championship weekend would hurt them a lot.
 

selmaborntidefan

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If I'm not mistaken, the committee ran simulations on prior years and Alabama was included for the 2011 year.
The problem with this is multi-fold. First, it's easy to say how it would have turned out 'if' one voted 'after the fact' - there is simply no way to know this is true. Secondly, this assumes these folks who couldn't see the committee was going to drop TCU for Ohio State knew what the committee would do in every circumstance.

I'm not quite as pessimistic as ALA2262 is with a 'they'll never do it' mentality, but I think he's MOSTLY correct. 2011 is the kind of circumstance where I can see it happening, but you have to look at the actual final BCS results for the regular season:

1) LSU - nobody argued about LSU in any way; but what if LSU lost to UGA in the SECCG? Does a division championship count as 'championships won?' SEC champions

2) Alabama - lost to LSU but SOS was not all that phenomenal that year

3) Okie State - Big 12 champions and lost to Iowa St

4) Stanford - only lost to Oregon, no championship

5) Oregon - two losses (LSU, USC), PAC 10 champions

6) Arkansas - two 24-point losses to LSU and Alabama, third place in their own division

7) Boise St - home loss to TCU, WAC champions, absolutely awful SOS

8) Kansas St - Big 12 runners up, got killed by OU, lost to Okie St

9) South Carolina - two losses to Arky and Auburn....and didn't even win the division

10) Wisconsin - Big Ten champions, two losses to Mich St and Ohio St


So your conference champions were ranked 1 (no need for a committee there), 3, 5, and 7 - LSU, Okie St, Oregon, and Boise. Your next conference champion was rated TENTH and had two losses.

So, yes, I can see Alabama making it under such a system but ONE GAME makes all the difference in the world.

What if Arkansas had beaten LSU by 24? Or what if UGA - with TWO LOSSES, one of them to Boise St - had beaten LSU by even a single point?

My point being this: if LSU had had even ONE loss in a four-team scenario, it is highly unlikely Alabama goes.

If LSU had lost to Oregon, then LSU and Oregon would have gone because the Ducks would have had only one loss and been conference champions.

If LSU had lost to Arkansas, who would have played UGA? Oh.....and if UGA had beaten LSU and been a two-loss SEC champion, how do you put them in over Boise State, who manhandled the Bulldogs in the season opener?

You have to remember that what made that entire scenario aside from the SEC dominance in the BCSNCG was the fact Oregon had played LSU, which meant the old 'we don't want a rematch' mantra couldn't hold up. It was ASSUMED that after Oregon beat Stanford, they were home free, just like it was ASSUMED that once Okie State took care of K-State, they, too, were home free.

That's why there are only TWO scenarios I can see two SEC teams in the game:

1) 2009, when Florida and Alabama were both unbeaten division winners (but that wouldn't have happened that year, either, because there were still four unbeatens after that game)

2) 2011

In other words - for this to happen at least ONE of the SEC teams HAS to be undefeated entering the SECCG. It'll never happen otherwise.
 

81usaf92

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What if Arkansas had beaten LSU by 24?



.
Alabama, under the rules of the SEC, would've played UGA in the SECG. Alabama was gaining a tremendous amount of support in the human polls and the rankings were 1# LSU, #2 Bama, and #3 Arkansas in the final weekend. Had Arky pulled a 24 point upset in Death Valley, then it is highly unlikely that LSU lands better than 3rd with Bama and Arky having convincing road wins to close the season. The 3rd place team is the odd man out, with the 1 and 2 in the rankings going on head to head games to determine the SECW representative, in which we would be it.

So other than Oregon not losing to Kiffin and Okie St not losing to Iowa St. There is no way Bama would've been left out with 1 loss in 2011.
 

TideEngineer08

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I can still see LSU left out in this scenario. I think that the late loss by LSU to Alabama and not playing on championship weekend would hurt them a lot.
Not when the other conferences have every team with at least 2 losses (except the ACC, in our scenario).

No 2 loss team is going to make it over an 11-1 LSU. Unless we just absolutely kill them and then they look unimpressive the rest of their schedule.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Alabama, under the rules of the SEC, would've played UGA in the SECG. Alabama was gaining a tremendous amount of support in the human polls and the rankings were 1# LSU, #2 Bama, and #3 Arkansas in the final weekend. Had Arky pulled a 24 point upset in Death Valley, then it is highly unlikely that LSU lands better than 3rd with Bama and Arky having convincing road wins to close the season. The 3rd place team is the odd man out, with the 1 and 2 in the rankings going on head to head games to determine the SECW representative, in which we would be it.

So other than Oregon not losing to Kiffin and Okie St not losing to Iowa St. There is no way Bama would've been left out with 1 loss in 2011.
Right but you're missing the main point. The point is not whether or not Alabama makes it in the four-team playoff with a loss - it's the notion that Steele is advocating of TWO SEC teams making it each with a loss this year that is damned near impossible. Citing 2011 as folks do is proof it can happen when one is unbeaten.

Also thx for the explanation on the possible 3/way. That was my recollection as well but I got confused with all those upsets in other leagues.
 

RTR91

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I enjoy these type talks, but the truth is we can't say how many teams from one conference would get into the playoff with a certain number of losses because there are so many variables.
 

81usaf92

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Right but you're missing the main point. The point is not whether or not Alabama makes it in the four-team playoff with a loss - it's the notion that Steele is advocating of TWO SEC teams making it each with a loss this year that is damned near impossible. Citing 2011 as folks do is proof it can happen when one is unbeaten.

Also thx for the explanation on the possible 3/way. That was my recollection as well but I got confused with all those upsets in other leagues.
Yeah Im kinda perplexed that Phil is predicting two SECW teams in the playoff because usually if he has a gamble prediction it isn't that out there. I can see the SEC playing out the way he says with Bama and LSU being 1 loss, I can see a non California and Oregon team winning the Pac 12 with two losses and getting left out, but unless its a team like Iowa winning the Big10 with two losses... Im not seeing the committee passing on a blue blood team from the Big 10, especially with tOSU winning the title out of nowhere in 2014.
 

derek4tide

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Isn't LSU picked to win it all every year. LOL, I know that is not literally true, but I work with several LSU grads and I hear it every summer. I just don't see how they do it without a QB. LF can't win every game on his own. I think they lose the first game against Wisconsin and will also lose at Florida and to Bama. Until they can produce a proven QB, that can win games, they will falter.
 
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ALA2262

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Isn't LSU picked to win it all every year. LOL, I know that is not literally true, but I work with several LSU grads and I hear it every summer. I just don't see how they do it without a QB. LF can't win every game on his own. I think they lose the first game against Wisconsin and will also lose at Florida and to Bama. Until they can produce a proven QB, that can win games, they will falter.
in 2011, LSU went 13-0 against the 7th most difficult schedule in CFB history, and came within one game of being proclaimed the greatest CFB team of All Time. With a horrible QB! And without a RB that could even be in the same conversation with LF.

http://www.cfrc.com/legacy_site/Encyclopedia/SOS/Top_50_2015.htm
 
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RTR91

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Isn't LSU picked to win it all every year. LOL, I know that is not literally true, but I work with several LSU grads and I hear it every summer. I just don't see how they do it without a QB. LF can't win every game on his own. I think they lose the first game against Wisconsin and will also lose at Florida and to Bama. Until they can produce a proven QB, that can win games, they will falter.
They're going to lose to Wisconsin with Wisconsin's former DC on staff? Nah.
 

selmaborntidefan

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RTR91 basically summarized my thoughts more succinctly.

COULD the 'bizarre scenario' happen? Yes, but we're talking 'win the lottery' odds here. In theory, I COULD score with Kate Upton on the mound at Fenway Park, but let's be realistic here.

What makes it interesting is the following:

FSU vs Ole Miss
Wisconsin vs LSU
Clemson vs Auburn
Alabama vs USC
Georgia vs UNC
FSU vs Florida
Ohio St vs Oklahoma


These create some major potential issues. Let me put it this way: if Ole Miss beats FSU, the Noles are as good as done. But if FSU beats Ole Miss, you immediately turn the Ole Miss-Tide game into a battle not only for SEC but NATIONAL survival as well.

And what if:

LSU absolutely trounces Wisconsin in Lambeau.....and then the Badgers win the division or the Big 10 title?

Imagine the scenario if:

Wisconsin loses only to LSU and Ohio State.....and beats the UNBEATEN Buckeyes in the B1G title matchup thanks to a lousy officiating blunder.

Ole Miss barely beats FSU who beats Clemson badly who beat Auburn badly who beat Ole Miss......

Oklahoma wins the Big 12 but has a loss to Ohio State

LSU loses to Ole Miss but beats Alabama

Alabama massacres the rest of the schedule but loses to LSU in Baton Rouge in triple OT

USC loses to Alabama and Notre Dame (two losses) but cleans house otherwise, leaving Oregon, who boat races Nebraska, who only loses by three points each to Ohio State and Wisconsin.


So let's say you have high rankings (arbitrary, doesn't matter who is #1, 2, etc), conference champion in bold:

LSU 11-1 (loss to Ole Miss)
Alabama 11-1 (loss to LSU)
Ole Miss, 10-2 (beat FSU, lost to Alabama, beat LSU, lost to Auburn)
Oklahoma 11-1 (loss AT HOME to Ohio State), B12 champoions
Wisconsin, 11-2 (loss to LSU, loss to Ohio State, win vs Buckeyes in B1G title game)
Ohio State, 12-1, lost B1G title game
Florida State, 12-1, lost to Ole Miss (wins ACC title game)
Clemson, 11-1, lost to Florida State
USC, 11-2, lost to Alabama and Notre Dame, wins Pac 12 title game)
Oregon, 11-1, lost to USC
Notre Dame, 11-1, lost to Michigan State.....or 12-0, didn't win a conference championship


I think we can all agree that Ole Miss is easily out under this scenario but.....

1) OU has won ONE LESS GAME than Ohio State and lost head to head AT HOME......but they're conference champions so........which counts more? Is Ohio State's 'divisional championship'

2) How do you settle Wisconsin-Ohio State? Do you say that Ohio State won ON THE ROAD while the Badgers won at a neutral site or do you say that Wisconsin 'overcame the earlier loss' or do you say 'even though Wisconsin won the conference, Ohio State has the better record and won head-to-head and beat OU impressively on the road (aka 'the conference title game doesn't really count' scenario)?

3) Is Oregon eliminated BECAUSE they lost to USC head to head and do the Trojans win because 'they won the conference championship?' And what if Oregon lost due to an officiating blunder (e.g. Nebraska-Mich St or Duke-Miami just last year)? Do those count the same as 'players injured' and 'other factors?'

4) And how do you then settle the SEC? Which team goes to the SECCG for starters? Better yet, let's say LSU only loses to Alabama, who is undefeated and THEN the Tide loses a rematch to a two-loss Vols team in the SECCG.....how is that ANY different than the B1G scenario?

Does LSU get to go because Tennessee has two losses and because the Vols eliminated Alabama? And again.....is that any different than the B1G scenario?


Now I've said all that and our minds are going, "Wow, interesting on some level."

======================


But guess who goes? The committee sits a few miles from me and FIRST comes up with the teams: Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and either unbeaten Notre Dame or one-loss Florida State.....because those teams will draw money and fans.


THEN......they justify it after the fact. They come out with the old, "If you look at the entire body of work, Ohio State's resume is more impressive than Wisconsin's total resume.....it's not that we are NOT counting the Badgers win over the Buckeyes, we are just putting it in the CONTEXT of the full season." (This will occur right after ESPN has been hyping 'the playoff play-in game in the B1G!').

Then they pick Alabama by saying, "Alabama won the Western division championship and gamely fought Tennessee in a neutral site game; this does not offset their tough schedule combined with their trouncing of the Vols in October, it just puts it into full context.'

We're then told OU is in there because 'they won the conference' (the same argument they aren't making for Ohio State or Alabama) and whatever justification they can give the other team, they will. Division championships will suddenly become acceptable language for these bozos.

Yes, there is a THEORETICAL way where Steele's proposal could happen but I don't think they'll do it anytime soon. Even in the one I just laid out, you'd get some flack.

Oh......and if that does happen, the most common phrase will suddenly be 'we really need an eight-team playoff.'
 

LA4Bama

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assuming this is for the last spot, who would you pick for the playoff...

A 1 loss USC or 1 loss LSU, assuming each loss is to us?

USC because this is the perfect place to apply conference champion status.

But, who do you pick if LSU loses 1 to us but USC wins the PAC12 with a loss to us and one other quality team (Notre Shame, or worse, a Pac12 team that they subsequently beat in the P12 championship game )?

While every scenario is unlikely in relation to the field, I think this is not a totally far fetched scenario!
 
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