Expansion: Alive and Well

Redwood Forrest · Aug 1, 2016

That is an interesting twist, isn't it? Do the two networks want to break the contract? I'll bet ESPN wishes they had never heard of Texas.

One theory out there is they will expand by four to get all the money they can before contracts run out, then let the conference die and Texas and Oklahoma will go elsewhere.

Also, if they take two or four team from AAC that will mean raiding the CUSA, which will poach from Sunbelt. Goodbye Sunbelt who will be left with 8 or 9 teams.

TideEngineer08 · Aug 1, 2016

RTR91 said:
Big 12 TV partners push back on expansion

Oh well, they should not have signed the contract. I think we can safely surmise that the Big 12 isn't long for this world anymore. The SEC and Big Ten are kings of the mountain and will always be. The Pac 12 is on an island from the rest of the country, and although they've struggled to get their network off the ground, in time they'll figure it out and I don't see them losing any teams ever because the only logical place for them to go would be the Big 12, and it's a sinking ship. The ACC has solidified itself brilliantly, IMO. Getting Notre Dame on board was a huge win for them and I suspect that when they finally do give up pseudo-Indenpendence, they'll join the ACC as a full time member. Likely, the ACC will add UConn to even out the conference at 16 teams.

So, the Big 12 is going to break up. Some will go west to the Pac 12, some to the Big Ten, and the SEC probably gets a couple. With the ACC being solidified with their own network and Notre Dame, you are not going to see any of their schools leaving. If I had to guess, Texas will either try Independence or they will join the Big 10 along with Kansas. Oklahoma probably joins the SEC, much to Krazy3's chagrin. I could see the SEC also taking on Oklahoma State, but I'd hate it (frankly wouldn't like OU joining either). Then 4 of the leftover teams will go west to the Pac 12. The Pac 12, although they'd prefer Texas, would probably accept Texas Tech/TCU/OK State/Kansas State or some other combination, just to get a foothold in the state of Texas and the Central time zone for tv purposes. The fan bases, although not as large as OU's or Texas's, are still large enough and passionate enough to get the conference's network carried by cable providers.

JMO.

TideEngineer08 · Aug 1, 2016

Thinking through this some more, IF the Big 12 is going to eventually implode, this is what I'd like to see:

The ACC brings Notre Dame football into the fold as a full member, along with UConn.

The Big Ten adds Texas and Kansas (not sure what Nebraska is going to think of this since they fled the Big 12 in large part because of Texas).

The SEC adds Oklahoma and West Virginia. I know what the demographics are and they don't matter. With the ACC solidifying itself there are no more large states to conquer, so we take the best football. Missouri moves to the West division, and Auburn moves to the East. I don't think the Iron Bowl dies, but the Tennessee series likely goes away. The Iron Bowl is probably moved to mid-October in order to avoid a rematch a week later in the SEC championship. Alabama and Oklahoma will play the weekend after Thanksgiving. Yes, the SEC West gets even more difficult despite losing Auburn and gaining Missouri.

Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas State join the Pac 12. None of them are the Pac 12's first options, but if you are going to take on Utah, you'll take on these 4 as well in order to gain a foothold in Texas as well as the Central Time Zone.

The Big 12's leftovers are Baylor, Iowa State, and whatever AAC teams they add this year. And those AAC teams are going to feel pretty foolish at this time, but I suspect they will find a home somewhere. Perhaps back in the AAC, depending on how that conference responds to losing said teams this year. Maybe they don't add any C-USA teams, for example and have room to add back teams that leave.

Anyway, few care about Iowa State, and even less care about Baylor after all this scandal they are going through now so it's not that big of a deal.

Redwood Forrest · Aug 1, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
Thinking through this some more, IF the Big 12 is going to eventually implode, this is what I'd like to see:

The ACC brings Notre Dame football into the fold as a full member, along with UConn.

The Big Ten adds Texas and Kansas (not sure what Nebraska is going to think of this since they fled the Big 12 in large part because of Texas).

The SEC adds Oklahoma and West Virginia. I know what the demographics are and they don't matter. With the ACC solidifying itself there are no more large states to conquer, so we take the best football. Missouri moves to the West division, and Auburn moves to the East. I don't think the Iron Bowl dies, but the Tennessee series likely goes away. The Iron Bowl is probably moved to mid-October in order to avoid a rematch a week later in the SEC championship. Alabama and Oklahoma will play the weekend after Thanksgiving. Yes, the SEC West gets even more difficult despite losing Auburn and gaining Missouri.

Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Kansas State join the Pac 12. None of them are the Pac 12's first options, but if you are going to take on Utah, you'll take on these 4 as well in order to gain a foothold in Texas as well as the Central Time Zone.

The Big 12's leftovers are Baylor, Iowa State, and whatever AAC teams they add this year. And those AAC teams are going to feel pretty foolish at this time, but I suspect they will find a home somewhere. Perhaps back in the AAC, depending on how that conference responds to losing said teams this year. Maybe they don't add any C-USA teams, for example and have room to add back teams that leave.

Anyway, few care about Iowa State, and even less care about Baylor after all this scandal they are going through now so it's not that big of a deal.

When the B12 eventually breaks up the LHN will be down to a few remaining years and I can see Texas dropping that for P12 network, which with Texas and Oklahoma added would be a $$$ success.

Crimson1967 · Aug 1, 2016

Redwood Forrest said:
That is an interesting twist, isn't it? Do the two networks want to break the contract? I'll bet ESPN wishes they had never heard of Texas.

One theory out there is they will expand by four to get all the money they can before contracts run out, then let the conference die and Texas and Oklahoma will go elsewhere.

Also, if they take two or four team from AAC that will mean raiding the CUSA, which will poach from Sunbelt. Goodbye Sunbelt who will be left with 8 or 9 teams.

The Sun Belt will dip into FCS to fill spots and we get a lengthy diatribe from Krazy. [emoji6]

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TideEngineer08 · Aug 1, 2016

Redwood Forrest said:
When the B12 eventually breaks up the LHN will be down to a few remaining years and I can see Texas dropping that for P12 network, which with Texas and Oklahoma added would be a $$$ success.

I think Texas's options, once the LHN contract ends and the Big 12 implodes, are Independence, Big Ten, and Pac 12. Once Notre Dame joins the ACC as a full member in football - and they will - then Texas is going to realize there is no appetite out there for any conference to take them on as a partial football member in order to help them be Independent. The conferences would hold the leveraging power, not Texas. Notre Dame has held the leveraging power all these years because they never joined a conference and they became the greatest football program (since surpassed by Alabama, of course). So the options are down to Pac 12/Big Ten at that point. IMO, Texas never had interest in going west at all. While they like to think of rubbing elbows in the academic arena with the likes of Cal and Stanford, they are also not enthralled with being in a left coast conference in the Pacific Time Zone. The Big Ten is a much more attractive option from that standpoint, and they will still be rubbing elbows with the "academic elite."

OU isn't as prestigious academically and thus doesn't have the same attractiveness as Texas on that level, though I don't doubt the Pac 12 or Big Ten would take them along with Texas in a heartbeat. But ultimately, I think the Sooners prefer to remain closer to their roots and the SEC is that. Both schools have wholeheartedly stated that the OU/Texas game would never stop being played no matter what direction the schools go in and I believe that.

This is just how I arrived at my earlier conclusion of why Texas goes to the Big Ten, and OU goes to the SEC.

Crimson1967 · Aug 1, 2016

I am not 100% certain, but I think the Big Ten requires its members to have wrestling, a sport Texas does not currently sponsor.

I do think the time zone thing will be a major road block to Texas joining the Pac 12.

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GP for Bama · Aug 1, 2016

The SEC is tough enough to win now! We don't need to expand.

TideEngineer08 · Aug 1, 2016

Crimson1967 said:
I am not 100% certain, but I think the Big Ten requires its members to have wrestling, a sport Texas does not currently sponsor.

I do think the time zone thing will be a major road block to Texas joining the Pac 12.

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Exceptions will be made if necessary.

Redwood Forrest · Aug 1, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
I think Texas's options, once the LHN contract ends and the Big 12 implodes, are Independence, Big Ten, and Pac 12. Once Notre Dame joins the ACC as a full member in football - and they will - then Texas is going to realize there is no appetite out there for any conference to take them on as a partial football member in order to help them be Independent. The conferences would hold the leveraging power, not Texas. Notre Dame has held the leveraging power all these years because they never joined a conference and they became the greatest football program (since surpassed by Alabama, of course). So the options are down to Pac 12/Big Ten at that point. IMO, Texas never had interest in going west at all. While they like to think of rubbing elbows in the academic arena with the likes of Cal and Stanford, they are also not enthralled with being in a left coast conference in the Pacific Time Zone. The Big Ten is a much more attractive option from that standpoint, and they will still be rubbing elbows with the "academic elite."

OU isn't as prestigious academically and thus doesn't have the same attractiveness as Texas on that level, though I don't doubt the Pac 12 or Big Ten would take them along with Texas in a heartbeat. But ultimately, I think the Sooners prefer to remain closer to their roots and the SEC is that. Both schools have wholeheartedly stated that the OU/Texas game would never stop being played no matter what direction the schools go in and I believe that.

This is just how I arrived at my earlier conclusion of why Texas goes to the Big Ten, and OU goes to the SEC.

I was looking at it from a Pac 12 point of view. The only large population they don't already have is Texas. By adding Texas to their 64,000,000 TV sets they go to 90,000,000 and with the earlier TV time zone that will really help them out. If I were the P12 I would do whatever it took to get Texas. It is either get Texas or take another little desert state with few people.

TideEngineer08 · Aug 1, 2016

Redwood Forrest said:
I was looking at it from a Pac 12 point of view. The only large population they don't already have is Texas. By adding Texas to their 64,000,000 TV sets they go to 90,000,000 and with the earlier TV time zone that will really help them out. If I were the P12 I would do whatever it took to get Texas. It is either get Texas or take another little desert state with few people.

I do think they will go full court press in order to get them to join. I'm just not sure Texas prefers them. If they can't get Texas, I think getting Texas Tech/TCU would accomplish the goal of getting the state of Texas on board as far as cable tv/conference network goes. Although I just looked and TCU is a small school. I didn't realize that. Maybe Houston would actually get a look before TCU.

But I'm with you in that the Pac 12 is going to do everything to get the Longhorns.

Redwood Forrest · Aug 1, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
I do think they will go full court press in order to get them to join. I'm just not sure Texas prefers them. If they can't get Texas, I think getting Texas Tech/TCU would accomplish the goal of getting the state of Texas on board as far as cable tv/conference network goes. Although I just looked and TCU is a small school. I didn't realize that. Maybe Houston would actually get a look before TCU.

But I'm with you in that the Pac 12 is going to do everything to get the Longhorns.

Interesting all way around. Texas Tech and Houston would be my pick. The mileage "looks" about the same on the map for Southern California, Arizona, Colorado and Utah as to the B1G country would be. That trip to Rutgers is about the same as that to Oregon State.

CullmanTide · Aug 1, 2016

Should heaven forbid, the SEC see a need to add two Big 12 teams, Oklahoma St. and Kansas need to be the targets. Both have fine athletic programs without being football heavy weights plus Missouri and Texas A&M would then have true rivals.

RTR91 · Aug 1, 2016

CullmanTide said:
Should heaven forbid, the SEC see a need to add two Big 12 teams, Oklahoma St. and Kansas need to be the targets. Both have fine athletic programs without being football heavy weights plus Missouri and Texas A&M would then have true rivals.

Mizzou in 2010 was much more attractive than Kansas today. No thanks for that one. It's Kentucky basketball with no football. At least Kentucky wins a few games a year.

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Redwood Forrest · Aug 2, 2016

Since we don't need a powerhouse football team why not go with Cincinnati and W Virginia? That would give us 13 million more TV sets and let Mizzouri slide over the SEC West. How long would Tubby last in the SEC East?

Redwood Forrest · Aug 2, 2016

Possibly the most important battle lines in Big 12 expansion have been drawn: quality football vs. quality ratings. The basic question: Does the Big 12 care about angering its rights holders in future negotiations?

http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...n-with-tv-rights-holders-shaking-their-fists/

Does Texas want to save the Big 12? If so Texas and Oklahoma lead the way into renegotiating the TV contracts so that the new additions don't get the full share until year six, which is the norm, I think. If they don't want to save the Big 12 then add them anyway, take the loot and skip town in a few year for Big 10, Big 12 or SEC.

BamaMoon · Aug 2, 2016

TideEngineer08 said:
Thinking through this some more, IF the Big 12 is going to eventually implode, this is what I'd like to see:

The ACC brings Notre Dame football into the fold as a full member, along with UConn.

The Big Ten adds Texas and Kansas (not sure what Nebraska is going to think of this since they fled the Big 12 in large part because of Texas).

The SEC adds Oklahoma and West Virginia. I know what the demographics are and they don't matter. With the ACC solidifying itself there are no more large states to conquer, so we take the best football. Missouri moves to the West division, and Auburn moves to the East. I don't think the Iron Bowl dies, but the Tennessee series likely goes away. The Iron Bowl is probably moved to mid-October in order to avoid a rematch a week later in the SEC championship. Alabama and Oklahoma will play the weekend after Thanksgiving. Yes, the SEC West gets even more difficult despite losing Auburn and gaining Missouri.
.

That actually sounds fun.

I like the idea of Bama and the Barn playing earlier in the year anyway...been a fan of this for a long time.

Bama vs. OU at the end of the year would become an instant classic each year.

Only downside is we'd lose UT annually, but Bama/OU would arguably be much, much bigger in the eyes of the nation.

KrAzY3 · Aug 2, 2016

CullmanTide said:
Should heaven forbid, the SEC see a need to add two Big 12 teams, Oklahoma St. and Kansas need to be the targets. Both have fine athletic programs without being football heavy weights plus Missouri and Texas A&M would then have true rivals.

I guess I'm with you on that, but to me that reads a bit like "if you have to poison yourself, which would you prefer?" I really feel like the SEC added the two best programs they could given the demographics and now expansion offers little to them (as long as the ACC's grant of rights appears to be able to hold up to any legal challenge).

Redwood Forrest said:
Since we don't need a powerhouse football team why not go with Cincinnati and W Virginia? That would give us 13 million more TV sets and let Mizzouri slide over the SEC West. How long would Tubby last in the SEC East?

Cincinnati is an interesting potential addition but largely due to demographics. Over ten million in the state, a ton of recruits, and they are close to Kentucky. That aside, Cincy is nothing like adding Texas A&M, smaller state and a much littler brother. West Virginia is... well I feel like they're lucky to be in a power 5 conference at this point. They remind me a lot of Kansas, but at least Kansas would improve the SEC's basketball product significantly.

I think the SEC's position is a lot like the Big 10, no reason to make a move now unless there's just something fantastic dangling in front of their face. Otherwise they're both well positioned. At this point though it feels like we're all watching to see how badly the Big 12 will screw up and then other parties might make their move.

Redwood Forrest · Aug 3, 2016

This tug-o-war between Texas and the other nine, Texas-Oklahoma and the other eight and between Fox/ESPN and Big 12 is interesting to watch unfold. NBC has no problem with only Notre Dame to concentrate their efforts and money on. ESPN must find it difficult to lose money on LHN and try to schedule around the LHN. Or do they schedule with the LHN trying to boost that rating?

KrAzY3 · Sep 1, 2016

I wasn't sure where to put this, so I guess this will do.

http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ws-list-expansion-candidates-least-12-schools
They do not comment on Memphis, but here are the teams that are still in the running for sure.
Air Force, BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, Colorado State, UConn, Houston, Rice, South Florida, SMU, Temple and Tulane.

Here are the teams out of the running:
Arkansas State, Boise State, East Carolina, New Mexico, Northern Illinois, San Diego State and UNLV

While I can generally see the logic to some of those teams that didn't make the cut (Arkansas State, New Mexico, Northern Illinois and UNLV are not very attractive additions), I'm not sure Boise State, East Carolina or San Diego State are worse than some of the programs remaining on their list. If they were focusing on a network Easter Carolina or invading California via San Diego State could make some sense. Boise State is also one of the bigger brands on the list, even if their days as an almost football power might be done.

The list of teams that did make the cut is obviously better, but with a couple odd teams left in there. Why is SMU and Rice on the list? Furthermore, who really thinks Temple and Uconn are good fits?

I just can't figure out what direction they are going with this. Perhaps they are going to go for basketball powers, by adding Uconn and Cincinnati. They might be trying to rebuild the Southwest Conference, since that worked so well the first time (Houston, Rice, and SMU). You could have even have the religious expansion with SMU, BYU, and Temple (leaving a spot for Notre Dame to join in a couple decades). Of course more rationally they might just be trying to add solid, known brands like Air Force and BYU. Who knows if they are even worrying about the network aspect which would make UCF and South Florida particularly attractive? Of course that still leaves Colorado St. and Tulane. I can't figure out why the heck they're still on the list...

Expansion: Alive and Well

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