Question about QB ratings

Redwood Forrest

Hall of Fame
Sep 19, 2003
11,042
907
237
76
Boaz, AL USA
I know recruiting analysis is not a exact science but I wonder how can coaches and other experts miss so badly. According to late reports from practice Cooper Bateman can't throw an accurate pass over 15 yards. He was ranked #4 Pro Style by 24/7 and a four star. If reports are right he will never start in college.

OTH, Baker Mayfield was A#40 pro style by 24/7 and a Three Star. Evidently will be one of the five at the Heisman final and can throw an accurate pass a long way.

My question is how can anyone watch a #4 rated QB through HS, watch his film and NOT see he can't throw an accurate pass over 15 yds?

How can Baker Mayfield be God's gift to passing and be ranked a three star by those who watched him live and on film?

Or are these practice reports just a bunch of lies?

This is very confusing to me. Any help will be appreciated.
 

RTR91

Super Moderator
Nov 23, 2007
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There are various reasons for poor recruit scouting by analysts. Sometimes they rank a guy too high, and sometimes they miss a guy.

The player's level of high school competition can make a big impact on things. Does the player get a pump for playing in a particular classification or state? Does the player look better than he really is because he's playing against lesser talent?

Some kids don't get the exposure others get. Take Joshua Jacobs (freshman RB). His film didn't make the rounds until after December, so he didn't get the publicity others got. Or a guy like Jonah Williams (freshman OT) not attending any camps after committing to Alabama, which some consider the reason he was not ranked the best OT in this past recruiting class.

As we all know, people mature and grow at different rates. A guy might not be as big during his senior year, makes plays during the season, gets lucky a school takes a chance on him, and ends up growing into the ideal size for his position once on campus.
 

Matt0424

All-American
Jan 16, 2010
3,909
0
55
Hoover, Al
As far as Cooper Bateman in particular, most recruiting services had somewhat of an asterisk by his name to start with.

In High School (prior to his Senior year) he looked the part. He had a quick release, good speed for a QB, great accuracy, he was smart, and a developing arm (more on that later). He put up beautiful stats going in to his final year.

It kinda broke down a bit his Senior year.

First, he played in Utah. Utah is not a hotbed for football in comparison to most states, so his competition level wasn't near what other QB'S we've recruited played against. His Senior year the team he was on did more travelling, and played out of state several times. I watched a couple of games, and he was good in losses, but not great. The team went either 5-5 or 6-4 his Senior year. Playing some higher level competition suddenly those windows to throw were smaller (dip in accuracy), coverages were tougher to read (slowed down release), and his arm strength just seemed adequate.

He still flashed a ton of raw promise, though, and you could see that if he kept physically evolving he could be good with proper coaching. He also fit the mold of having a "smart" QB, which seems a prerequisite for CNS.

The problem I think we've seen is that he hasn't progressed physically as much as the staff hoped. So his adequate arm strength hasn't improved with lifting weights, better diet, and good coaching. That causes his accuracy on deeper passes to be poor. Some kids just peak earlier than others. While Cooper may have it all working in his head, his body may not be able to comply.

You could say the opposite of Mayfield who didn't have quite the tools coming out of HS, but has developed further at his time at OU.

It's not something you can pinpoint, and it's why you have busts with 5* players or first round draft picks. It's also what turns 3* guys into top picks, and 6th rounders in to All Pro guys.

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colbysullivan

Hall of Fame
Dec 12, 2007
16,695
13,605
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Gulf Breeze, FL
I remember watching Cooper in the Elite 11 and they kept talking about how much of a cannon he had. I remember one throw in 7 on 7 that was a damn laser. Not sure if something changed with him or if the narrative changed.
 

deliveryman35

Hall of Fame
Jul 26, 2003
12,998
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Gadsden, AL
I think the same thing could be asked about David Cornwell. Even without his foot problems, I honestly don't ever see him starting a game here despite all of the hype when he first got here.
 

WMack4Bama

Administrator
Staff member
Nov 7, 2008
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Thing is, everybody looks like Montana & Brady's lovechild in shorts and a t-shirt. I've never been high on taking what kids do at 7-on-7 camps as gospel. And even using the film isn't always a good indicator. The level of competition a kid plays against in high school can determine how good or bad they look. The key is development and scheme fit. If I have a kid who has just okay arm strength but is deadly accurate, it is in the best interest of the team and to that kid that I develop an offense around him to dink & dunk people to death as opposed to asking him to throw 20 yard comeback routes 10 times a game.

I can't say enough how impressive it is what Lane has done two seasons in a row, especially with Blake. He rarely asked him to do anything that didn't play to his strengths, and it worked out for Blake.

And aside from not having a consistent pass rush without bringing the blitz during Nick's first 7 years here, my main concern was our lack of consistent QB development. Just about every guy we've brought in has been "Elite 11", but we can't seem to get it done with them. Phillip Ely looked terrible here but looked great at times last season at Toledo. Luke Del Rio couldn't see the field here, but will probably throw for 2500 at UF this season. What are we doing (or not doing) to develop these guys once they get here?
 

JDCrimson

Hall of Fame
Feb 12, 2006
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I think this speaks to how much of a system we (did) have on offense that it really wasn't designed to showcase a particular QB's talents. It doesn't matter whether in football or work, teams find an effective way to do what they do successfully. By doing a certain way it doesn't always mean that a particular player's talent will be maximized if it not needed to achieve success.

I firmly believe that if AJ had played under Kiffin his last year that we would have won the national championship again and he would be a starter in the NFL right now. Because I believe AJ has the physical tools and the moxie to play at a higher level than he was asked to do at bama.

I think if we were largely still running an offense similar to what we had in 2008 and 2009 and really didn't need to score more than 30 points a game and could be assured playing with a continual lead set up by the defense then Bateman would serve us just fine. If you go back and think about it from 2008-2011 we were rarely behind at any point in the game that we had to call on the offense to bail us out. Since then we have needed more offensive (and QB) capability to achieve similar results. We are not as ball control power now offensively as we were then.

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Last edited:

TideWatcher

All-SEC
Dec 11, 2006
1,814
11
62
newton county, ms
Obviously Qb's are not easy to evaluate and you miss on some. There is only one spot, with few backup slots. Bama misses on OL, DL, WR, etc.. as well. But have many backup positions. Major college football is hard. As Mack said, many kids look good in back yard football, and they are. But it is hard to play at this level. If you are a backup you are a very good player, relatively speaking.
 

RTR91

Super Moderator
Nov 23, 2007
39,407
6
0
Prattville
Thing is, everybody looks like Montana & Brady's lovechild in shorts and a t-shirt. I've never been high on taking what kids do at 7-on-7 camps as gospel. And even using the film isn't always a good indicator. The level of competition a kid plays against in high school can determine how good or bad they look. The key is development and scheme fit. If I have a kid who has just okay arm strength but is deadly accurate, it is in the best interest of the team and to that kid that I develop an offense around him to dink & dunk people to death as opposed to asking him to throw 20 yard comeback routes 10 times a game.

I can't say enough how impressive it is what Lane has done two seasons in a row, especially with Blake. He rarely asked him to do anything that didn't play to his strengths, and it worked out for Blake.

And aside from not having a consistent pass rush without bringing the blitz during Nick's first 7 years here, my main concern was our lack of consistent QB development. Just about every guy we've brought in has been "Elite 11", but we can't seem to get it done with them. Phillip Ely looked terrible here but looked great at times last season at Toledo. Luke Del Rio couldn't see the field here, but will probably throw for 2500 at UF this season. What are we doing (or not doing) to develop these guys once they get here?
I've had the same frustrations, too. When talking to someone about it, he asked the question - who does develop QBs these days?

Kind of goes along with the issue with the new guys in the NFL. Spread offenses don't really develop a QB; most QBs in those systems play off athletic ability instead of actually developing into an all around QB.
 

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