Now Aetna: This certainly doesn’t look good for Obamacare

CharminTide

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I'm sure Aetna has their panties in a bit of a wad over the Justice Dept ruling too
In a letter from Aetna to the DOJ, obtained via the FOIA, here's how wadded they were:

"If the deal were challenged and/or blocked we would need to take immediate actions to mitigate public exchange and ACA small group losses. Specifically, if the DOJ sues to enjoin the transaction, we will immediately take action to reduce our 2017 exchange footprint.... Instead of expanding to 20 states next year, we would reduce our presence to no more than 10 states... It is very likely that we would need to leave the public exchange business entirely."
 

NationalTitles18

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In a letter from Aetna to the DOJ, obtained via the FOIA, here's how wadded they were:

"If the deal were challenged and/or blocked we would need to take immediate actions to mitigate public exchange and ACA small group losses. Specifically, if the DOJ sues to enjoin the transaction, we will immediately take action to reduce our 2017 exchange footprint.... Instead of expanding to 20 states next year, we would reduce our presence to no more than 10 states... It is very likely that we would need to leave the public exchange business entirely."
A letter which was requested by the DOJ, mind you. I can't stand Aetna, mind you, but it's easy to see that was a convenient thing for the DOJ to have on hand, knowing as they did Aetna's position in the exchanges.
 

Tide1986

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A letter which was requested by the DOJ, mind you. I can't stand Aetna, mind you, but it's easy to see that was a convenient thing for the DOJ to have on hand, knowing as they did Aetna's position in the exchanges.
Adding from the McArdle piece I linked above:

This is orthogonal to the actual topic of this column, but for those who are going to request me to weigh in, my take is this: Justice asked Aetna for a letter outlining how the Humana merger decision might affect its participation in the exchanges. Aetna responded. The uncharitable view is that Justice basically phished that letter as a weapon against the insurer, but I think even the neutral reading is that Aetna was asked a question and responded to that question. This hardly qualifies as “extortion” unless you think that Aetna has a moral obligation to sell money-losing insurance policies, and was illegitimately threatening to do something it has no right to do.
 

CharminTide

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A letter which was requested by the DOJ, mind you. I can't stand Aetna, mind you, but it's easy to see that was a convenient thing for the DOJ to have on hand, knowing as they did Aetna's position in the exchanges.
Sure, it was very a convenient letter. The entire thing reads like a business negotiation -- Aetna knows the DOJ wants it to remain in the exchanges, and Aetna is basically saying you can't have what you want unless we also get what we want. I just don't think it should be a negotiable point.

IMO, the government needs to either force the private insurers to participate (through, for instance, denying them access to Medicare/Medicaid patients if they pull out), or we need a public option. I don't see a different way forward. I prefer the former method, but other countries have merged public and private health care successfully. The German model, for instance, offers both public and private insurance. Private insurance is better, but more expensive. The interesting thing they do is make it incredibly expensive to switch between the two in order to keep people in the same system from their 20s to their 90s. That actually levels the risk pool quite a bit -- otherwise young people would join the cheaper public option and jump to private insurance when they're older. The result is a good enough mixture of young and old people in both systems to keep prices reasonable.
 

Tide1986

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Sure, it was very a convenient letter. The entire thing reads like a business negotiation -- Aetna knows the DOJ wants it to remain in the exchanges, and Aetna is basically saying you can't have what you want unless we also get what we want. I just don't think it should be a negotiable point.

IMO, the government needs to either force the private insurers to participate (through, for instance, denying them access to Medicare/Medicaid patients if they pull out), or we need a public option. I don't see a different way forward. I prefer the former method, but other countries have merged public and private health care successfully. The German model, for instance, offers both public and private insurance. Private insurance is better, but more expensive. The interesting thing they do is make it incredibly expensive to switch between the two in order to keep people in the same system from their 20s to their 90s. That actually levels the risk pool quite a bit -- otherwise young people would join the cheaper public option and jump to private insurance when they're older. The result is a good enough mixture of young and old people in both systems to keep prices reasonable.
Regarding the forced participation of Medicare Advantage organizations in the ACA exchanges, can you cite an existing legal basis for the use of such force, or do you believe a new law should be passed that enables the use of such force?
 

CharminTide

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Regarding the forced participation of Medicare Advantage organizations in the ACA exchanges, can you cite an existing legal basis for the use of such force, or do you believe a new law should be passed that enables the use of such force?
The ACA forced insurers to stop refusing to cover patients due to pre-existing conditions. In this and similar ways, the government regulates the private sector in many areas, so I don't think this would be an unusual stipulation. To answer your questions, any change to the implementation of Obamacare will almost certainly require the passage of new laws.
 

crimsonaudio

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Unless we rise taxes substantially - across the board, not just on those who are successful - there's no point in comparing our situation with Germany, France, Belgium etc - they all pay much higher effective tax rates than we do in the US.
 

CharminTide

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Unless we rise taxes substantially - across the board, not just on those who are successful - there's no point in comparing our situation with Germany, France, Belgium etc - they all pay much higher effective tax rates than we do in the US.
Sure. The broader point was that an NHS-type single payer system isn't the only possible solution.
 

Tide1986

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https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...y-could-have-averted-the-anguish-of-obamacare

Modesty Could Have Averted the Anguish of Obamacare

Here’s my radical plan: If the Obamacare exchanges are going to result in, at best, people being able to buy Medicaid-style plans with limited choices and benefits, then why not just eliminate the middleman and give them … Medicaid?
The answer can probably be found in why some people choose to live in a "tiny house" instead of a trailer.
 

Tide1986

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And now Molina, an acknowledged expert in providing healthcare to the poor, is having trouble:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...-sign-that-obamacare-exchanges-are-collapsing

Because Molina is one of the companies that has been repeatedly pointed to, by virtually every health-care-policy wonk in the business, as one of the “bright spots” on the exchanges. Molina is a company that specializes in covering poor people. Before Obamacare, they were a sizable player in the “Medicaid managed care” model, and it seemed like the expertise they’d thusly acquired was allowing them to design the sort of plans that actually made money on the exchanges. Which is to say bare bones plans, not fancy but adequate. Apparently, that’s no longer a money-maker, at least for Molina.
 

seebell

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And now Molina, an acknowledged expert in providing healthcare to the poor, is having trouble:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...-sign-that-obamacare-exchanges-are-collapsing
Molina fails to commit to the exchange because : “There are simply too many unknowns with the marketplace program to commit to our participation beyond 2017.”

I think these unknowns come from what form, if any, "repeal and replace" takes

and
then from the link:There is no way to fix Obamacare without fixing the pool so that younger, healthier people buy insurance.

The individual mandate is not strong enough. A family can refuse to buy insurance, pay a penalty of $695 and then buy insurance when they get sick.
 

CharminTide

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Molina fails to commit to the exchange because : “There are simply too many unknowns with the marketplace program to commit to our participation beyond 2017.”

I think these unknowns come from what form, if any, "repeal and replace" takes

and
then from the link:There is no way to fix Obamacare without fixing the pool so that younger, healthier people buy insurance.

The individual mandate is not strong enough. A family can refuse to buy insurance, pay a penalty of $695 and then buy insurance when they get sick.
Don't you try to put any blame on the GOP refusing to address the ACA's shortcomings while Obama was still in office, And certainly don't blame the market uncertainly on the current GOP's inability to articulate anything about their future vision of U.S. healthcare. That just doesn't fit the narrative.
 

Bamaro

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Somebody tell me if this is true:
A person can have no insurance
Pay a small fine
When diagnosed with a disease or involved in an accident quickly enroll and be covered (pre-existing condition)
:conf3:
 

Tide1986

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Don't you try to put any blame on the GOP refusing to address the ACA's shortcomings while Obama was still in office, And certainly don't blame the market uncertainly on the current GOP's inability to articulate anything about their future vision of U.S. healthcare. That just doesn't fit the narrative.
Unfortunately, the GOP has absolutely nothing to do with the law's shortcomings.
 

seebell

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Somebody tell me if this is true:
A person can have no insurance
Pay a small fine
When diagnosed with a disease or involved in an accident quickly enroll and be covered (pre-existing condition)
:conf3:
I'm not sure about quickly enroll. There is an open enrollment period for like 2 months at the end of the year. Enrollment outside of this period can occur because of hardship and/or change in life circumstance. Not sure of the exact details. www.healthcare.gov might provide additional info.

How Much Is the Obamacare Penalty? What You'll Pay for Not Having ...

https://www.nerdwallet.com/.../how-much-is-the-obamacare-penalty-not-having-healt...



Oct 31, 2016 - Here's an example: Say you go without health insurance for all of January and February. ... How much the Obamacare penalty costs ... adjusted gross income, or $695 per adult and $347.50 per child, to a maximum of $2,085.
 

NationalTitles18

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I see the dems blaming the GOP for not fixing it yet the same as I see other who stubbornly create problems over the objections of multiple people and then want to blame those people when the problems that were warned about appear. IOW not very favorably. It might be different if they came back in humility, admit THEY goofed, and ASK for help in fixing the problem. I do get that it is now the GOP's problem to solve as they can't just let it be. But the dems' attitude is moronic. YOU created the problem. How do YOU propose we fix it? Single payer and more government interference in a private matter does not count as a viable solution when that is 90% of the original problem.
 

Bodhisattva

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I see the dems blaming the GOP for not fixing it yet the same as I see other who stubbornly create problems over the objections of multiple people and then want to blame those people when the problems that were warned about appear. IOW not very favorably. It might be different if they came back in humility, admit THEY goofed, and ASK for help in fixing the problem. I do get that it is now the GOP's problem to solve as they can't just let it be. But the dems' attitude is moronic. YOU created the problem. How do YOU propose we fix it? Single payer and more government interference in a private matter does not count as a viable solution when that is 90% of the original problem.
It's always the same. We need government interference. And when things go sideways, we need more government interference. And so on.
 

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