Why the SEC has struggled to get elite QB play

"Defense Win Championships" is very much true & is what's made the SEC the most dominant conference in the history of college football..

I was referring to QBs who have landed starting jobs in the NFL in the last 10-15 years. Not really thinking about all time elites. Relatively speaking, a very small percentage of starting Quarterbacks in the NFL have come from the South and that seems wrong given the percentage of the league that comes from the South overall.

My point really was:

I only care about how the QB plays for us. We haven't had an outright bad QB under Saban. Some of them have actually been quite good.


As for the ELITE pro QBs. There are only a handful of them anyway. The draft numbers just seems to suggest that the other conferences are good at producing more busts and marginal starters.

Like with how the NFL has changed, a 4000 yard/30 TD passer isn't even elite anymore. We're talking about like a half-dozen guys max, the rest are solid but replaceable.

WMack4Bama said:

As a lifelong 49er fan, I hate Seattle with a passion so trust me it hurt me badly to type his name on the elite list. Add that to the fact that he doesn't do it the "traditional" way. But I cannot argue with or deny the results. He has that Auburn rabbit's foot planted firmly up his rear as he seems to ALWAYS get "lucky" and you're never out of the game with him. He makes the Manziel fluke plays routinely. And he does it all with one of the least notable receiving corps in the league. Only hardcore football fans could tell you anything about any of them and half of them probably can't. And in 4 seasons, he's taken his team to 2 Super Bowls and deep into the playoffs two more times.

And other thing that tears at me is the the top two guys I posted both grew up 49er fans and we had a chance to get them both and passed. SMH

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I actually think that Wilson's receiving corps is underrated. Doug Baldwin has always been a high ceiling guy who just needed a QB to get it to him. Tyler Lockett is also really explosive, and should have a great year this year (third option Jermaine Kearse isn't bad either). Combined with Jimmy Graham (who underperformed in year 1) and Marshawn Lynch (who's gone now), he has had a ton of weapons.

I do agree he's reached elite status though. I'd put him in the category of Rodgers, Newton, Brees, and Brady.

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The premise seems to conflict with the facts. The following numbers are compiled from the starters from the last week in the NFL in 2015 or projected to be the starter this year, thus included are 38 not 32. Surprisingly, the state of Alabama is the most impressive contributor.

Conf: (These numbers use the current conf affiliation):

ACC: 5
B10: 5
B12: 4
P12: 6
SEC: 9
Independents: 9

Region of country, HS. The states are roughly aligned with the dominant conf.

Atlantic Coast: 2 (Va)
East Coast: 2 (NJ, Pa)
Midwest: 5 (Ind, Oh, Mi, Wisc)
Plains: 1 (Mont)
Southeast: 11 (Al, Fla, Ga, La, Mo, Ms)
Southwest: 9 (Ok, Tx)
West Coast: 8 (Az, Cal, Hi, Wa)

States with multiple HS players:

Texas: 8, 1 QB per 3.3 mil population
Cal: 5, 7.66
Alabama: 3, 1.6
Florida: 2, 9.75
Georgia: 2, 5.0
Missouri: 2, 3.05
Ohio: 2, 5.8
Virginia: 2, 4.15

Per capita, the state of Alabama's HSs are the greatest contributor to NFL QB play.

This is just a snapshot and the numbers can change quickly. Nevertheless, IMO, surprising to many and in conflict with the current narrative.

Because they've never seen me at Qb lol

4Q Basket Case said:

What constitutes elite?

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I would personally say top 5 qbs in the league. Brady,Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Brees, and the next man up. The number 5 is hard because peyton filled my top 5. I find it hard to put Eli, Cam, Wilson, and Luck there because they have extreme ups and some significant down, and Rivers has been close forever but never seems to make that leap that gives you the impression that "this guy is clearly one of the top 5 qbs"

4Q Basket Case said:

Where did those guys come from?
.

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2 of mine come from California, 1 from Texas, and the other from Ohio

4Q Basket Case said:

Is any conference over- or under-represented?
.

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Out of those it would be 2 from the Big 10, 1 from the PAC 12, and 1 from the MAC. I think the Big 10, ND, and the Pac 12 are going to be the historically leaders in elite qbs, but to the over represented and underrepresented... I would say during the USC and Oregon years in the 2000's, the Pac 12 and Big XII were overrepresented to the degree that they were getting picked based on purely the conference. underrepresented I honestly don't know.

4Q Basket Case said:

If so, why?
.

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The problem with the SEC and high draft qbs is that 7/8 last teams that won a national championship (im including bama 4 times in this and florida 2 times) centered around a qb that played second fiddle to either the defense or the runningback. Tebow might be the only one of those 7 that won that seems to be different since he was the face, but Im going off what was more on the field because he did have a truly nasty defense and an unreal supporting cast on offense.

But the perception is that the SEC qbs that are gamebreakers on mediocre teams or game managers on great teams. Game breakers usually get a lot more attention because of their athleticism, and the SEC has had some major NFL busts like Johnny and Jamarcus, but so do conferences like the Big XII. I would say the ideal qbs are the tall pocket passers like Brady, Ben, and Rodgers that have that killer instinct. But again most of those types in the SEC are on elite teams centered around the run so they cant showcase them like the PAC 12 and the Big XII. So I think that really hurts the SEC Qb to the NFL question the most.

4Q Basket Case said:

The author made an unwarranted assumption all the way to #3, then asked #4. Problem is, #4 is meaningless without the collective answers to 1-3.

Example number 679533427 of pot stirrers masquerading as journalists, yet possessing no critical thought processes whatsoever.

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I think it is inconclusive mostly because it ignores the Big XII busts and promotes the SEC lack of starting qbs. Seriously, how many Oklahoma and Texas qbs have busted big time in the NFL compared to the SEC. But I would say that I can lean toward the Big 10 slightly higher to the others in the regards of being a QB conference, but they hardly get the reputation that the Big XII and PAC 12 do about it. But I think the SEC is more in the middle in producing NFL caliber QBs that work, but it is nowhere near the catastrophe that many "journalists" and "experts" try to make it out to be. I'm going more on my on recollection more that hard facts on this last paragraph so I could be totally wrong.

Interesting question...good discussion. UA has had an unprecedented run as we all know...but we have ONE QB who has shown the ability to compete (and possibly be elite) in the NFL -- AJM. Elite QB's are the rarest breed out there...regardless of conference.

BTW, its only preseason, but Dak Prescott seems to be conducting himself well!!

Our QBs have won four titles in the last eight years and came close to playing for one in three of the others. That is elite by my standards. Saban may have never coached a HOF QB but I really don't care about that.


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I would be curious to see how many NFL starting QBs (say six or more games) over the past 10-15 years went to high school in an SEC state (including Texas, since we've always recruited it) but went to another conference in college.

The "SEC defenses are better" comment was spoken in jest but I wonder if perhaps that factor has contributed to high school QBs leaning away from signing with SEC schools since the SEC seems to be less "quarterback friendly".


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uafan4life said:

I would be curious to see how many NFL starting QBs (say six or more games) over the past 10-15 years went to high school in an SEC state (including Texas, since we've always recruited it) but went to another conference in college.

The "SEC defenses are better" comment was spoken in jest but I wonder if perhaps that factor has contributed to high school QBs leaning away from signing with SEC schools since the SEC seems to be less "quarterback friendly".


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Brees and rivers are the only two that come to mind that are anything to write home about. Other than those it's more busts that do that.

In my opinion the current active elite QBs in the NFL are:

Brady (from California, played in Big Ten)
Big Ben (from Ohio, played in MAC)
Rodgers (from California, played in Pac-12)
Brees (from Texas, played in Big Ten)
Wilson (from Virginia, played in ACC & Big Ten)
Newton (from Georgia, played in the SEC)

After that you're in the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" territory...and as always, if you have to ask then the answer is no.

The midwest conferences are well represented but they have a fair number of transplants who spent their formative years on the West Coast or South. Big Ben is the only Midwestern native elite NFL QB. Half the list played HS ball in the South. But look at some of these guys:

Roethlisberger was stuck behind the coach's son at QB in HS and only played one year at QB. He was lightly recruited.

Brady was always a placeholder for Michigan and wasn't thought to be a legitimate NFL prospect coming out of college.

Russell Wilson was lightly recruited and as was Drew Brees.

Aaron Rodgers had to go through the JUCO route to get his shot in college and people even questioned him when he entered the draft (fell down to the Packers in the 20s).

5 of the 6 guys I listed were afterthoughts at some point in their career progression. I think this goes to show that the whole QB situation is a crapshoot and really not much of a thing for evaluating a conference.

Would someone define an elite QB ? To me, the article was unclear. The posters in this thread seem to indicate it is the top few in the NFL. The article referred to an NFL first round pick, which seems bogus to me. One way you could define it, among others, is an NFL starter, where to SEC leads with nine and the Southeast with 11.

Anyway, would someone define an elite QB ? Thanks.

I don't think it is just winning championships. Winning an MVP is a solidifying aspect I believe but not exclusively the factor. Roethlisberger has never won an MVP but he has played in and won multiple Super Bowls. Wilson has only won a single Super Bowl like Joe Flacco but I think if you watch both it is clear who is the better player.

Defining an elite QB is like Potter Stewart's definition of pornography.


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BamaInBham said:

Would someone define an elite QB ? To me, the article was unclear. The posters in this thread seem to indicate it is the top few in the NFL. The article referred to an NFL first round pick, which seems bogus to me. One way you could define it, among others, is an NFL starter, where to SEC leads with nine and the Southeast with 11.

Anyway, would someone define an elite QB ? Thanks.

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I would got with NFL starters as elite. You do not have to be one of the greatest of all time to be elite. Thanks to all who corrected my misconception of where NFL QBs come from. I thought that it was odd that so few came from the South, and now I know that many come from the South.

I don't think there is any region that really has a monopoly on who makes it to the NFL and becomes a top-tier guy at the quarterback position. It is a crapshoot. The biographical background of all these elite guys was almost totally bumpy roads where they earned every chance they got. Cam Newton is the most by the numbers "was a blue chip from HS to the pros" guy but his road there was hardly a sure thing. There were moments where you might have thought he wasted his potential at Florida.

I do think certain regions tend to produce better than average talent for the college game but that is like saying that "hey maybe the South is a football recruiting hotbed." It is not all that innovative of a thought. But once you limit your analysis to who has the best of the best in the pros, you're getting into a statistically useless area. It is too much of a roll of the dice on who makes it and who doesn't. Do you think Brady would be on the path to all-time greatness if he was drafted by the Browns? What if Drew Bledsoe never got hurt and they ended up drafting a high round pick at QB before they moved on from Bledsoe in New England? Could Brady just ended up with a career like John Parker Wilson? Maybe.

When I saw 'Linebacker U', what school do you think of?

When I say 'Running Back U', what school do you think of?

When I say 'Quarter Back U' what school do you think of? I draw a blank, personally.

QB is the toughest and most important position in the game. There are very few 'elite' QB's at any level. So if the SEC struggles to get 'elite' QB play, I'm cool with it because whatever the level of play is called, it's been winning Natty's for the last decade plus


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