NFL GMs are obsessed with finding the next Tom Brady, when all they have to do is actually watch college football.
Tom Brady severely hurts the 2nd part of your sentence because if you had watched Tom Brady in college you would be saying the guy should be a later pick. You could make a strong case that the 49ers,Browns, and Steelers were fools for taking Carmazzi, Wynn, and Tee Martin over him since they had considerable views on him compared to the Jets, Saints, and Ravens. I think the three problems going against Brady are pretty clear:
1) Carr gave into the Michigan fanbase's wishes to allow Drew Henson to start. Henson was a considerable talent, but there was no reason to play him over Brady. Many scouts, gms, and coaches have said on a consistent basis that one of the biggest reasons they passed on Brady was that they were worried that there was a flaw in his game that made Carr juggle qbs in 99. Remember Carr was widely thought of in the late 90's, and Michigan was 2 years removed of a title during that year.
2) Brady's combine and his physical appearance: Well he didn't look like a future hall of famer in 2000
3) Tom Brady's numbers weren't that earth shattering in college. AJ's last two years blow Tom Brady's last two years away, but that could be due to talent, scheme, or etc. But the point is that Tom Brady wouldn't be a 1st or 2nd rounder today with his numbers.
vs AJ
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-mccarron-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html
He was the diamond in the rough.
Clearly he was, but again how do you justify picking Tom Brady then when the #1 qb entering the draft (Pennington who had a pretty darn good career) is the only qb selected in the first round of a defensive heavy draft, and is selected 18th . The next qb (Carmazzi) is selected in the 3rd round, and is one of the 3 of the Brady 6 that makes no sense. Then Redman was selected later in the 3rd, and was a Johnny Unitas Award winner under Bobby Petrino, so there was some upside to selecting him over Brady. I wont go any further because we know Bulger was decent, and Wynn and Martin were well under par.
Since then they have tried to grab the next one before anyone else does so they are reaching big time with some of their picks. .
Most #1 picks deal with money, extreme need, and enthusiasm. Remember this isn't the NBA style of drafting where it is chance of where you go in the draft. Teams 1-5 are bad teams that need to get the fans excited and needs to put butts in seats more than anything else. Owners and Gms have to revive a brand or be left behind, so their first picks are mostly picked on getting the fans back after a horrible season. Example would be Andrew Luck and the Colts. Picks 6-20 are usually the picks that are more strategic, and make sense in building a championship team.
The Rams were in a more interesting situation than most #1 picks in that they were in the middle of a move, and had a home state sensation as a high draft pick available. It was a smart pick in building a new LA brand with a California kid with great numbers in a draft with few elite QBs.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html
This is where I sorta agree with you, and its mostly due to the unknowns of FCS. NDSU would beat a good deal of FBS schools, but its hard to say how many and who. I think if Wentz is the man that fits the Eagles philosophy and there was considerable fear that they would lose him before the next time up to pick then maybe it was a good pick. But there are few FCS qbs that make it big in the NFL. Only 4 times has a FCS won the superbowl. So it was a considerable gamble
They need to just take their time and rethink their evaluation processes.
Where are you drawing the conclusions that they aren't? Every first 5 draft picks in the drafts from 11-15 with the exception of 13 seem to suit a franchise need, and some like 11 and 15 seems to actually produce some home run picks.