USC is not putting up 38 points on Alabama. Turnovers, penalties, missed field goals . . . it doesn't matter. It's not going to happen. I will be ecstatic if USC puts up more than 20 points and 300 yards on Alabama's starting defense. Have a look at USC's last two games of the year (USC/Stan & USC/Wisky). The offense was abysmal and it was lead by Helton and Tee Martin.
Don't know how much attention you pay to us, but here are our recent year losses and the scores:
2008 - Florida, 31-20 (they were a MUCH better team than us that year and we led, 20-17, entering the fourth)
2010 - SCAR 35 Alabama 21 (they just had a REALLY great day that day)
2010 - LSU 24 Alabama 21 (typical LSU-Bama game)
2010 - Auburn 28 Alabama 27 (we blew a 24-0 lead thanks to some insane turnovers and things that would never happen again in a million years; if you haven't seen this one, go watch You Tube - it's insane)
2011 - LSU 9 Alabama 6 (we had seven horrible breaks go against us; just six and we win)
2012 - ATM 29 Alabama 24 (fell in a 20-0 hole and couldn't quite do it despite first and goal at their six)
2013 - Auburn 34 Alabama 28 (but Auburn got 13 of those points in the final 31 seconds)
2013 - OU 45 Alabama 31 (we kept turning the ball over.....and over....and over)
2014 - Ole Miss 23 Alabama 17 (again lost because of turnovers)
2014 - Ohio State 42 Alabama 35 (mostly turnovers but give the Buckeyes credit for not panicking when down 21-6)
2015 - Ole Miss 43 Alabama 37 (turnovers)
And to further prove the point I'm making:
We WON the turnover battle:
2013 Auburn, 1-0
We lost the turnover battles:
2008 Florida, 1-0
2010 LSU, 2-0
2010 Auburn, 2-1
2012 ATM, 3-0
2013 OU, 5-1
2014 Ole Miss, 2-1
2014 Ohio State, 3-2
2015 Ole Miss, 5-0
We TIED the turnover battle:
2010 SCAR, 1-1
2011 LSU, 2-2
Here's some food for thought; Alabama has only lost ONE game during the run (2008-now) where they DID NOT commit a turnover. And that game owed as much to mistakes (multiple missed field goals, a missed fourth down conversion, and multiple coverage mistakes) beating us as anything (not to take anything away from what was admittedly one helluvan effort by Auburn).
In other words, the ability to beat ability to beat Alabama is in LARGE PART due to the ability to get the ball via turnovers. If you don't get a turnover, you have virtually no chance at all. And keep in mind that to win, you still cannot commit more than ONE yourself based on the trends.
My guess? USC gets 13-17 points and Alabama gets 28-34 points.