Well, the Tide is going into this season ranked #1 once again, and looking for a repeat. And we can safely say that they are the team that is more likely than any other to be hoisting another crystal football next January. But being the favorite is a relative measure. What is the absolute probability that the Tide can pull off another NC this year?
We can calculate this based upon some assumptions and some data from the web. First, I am going to assume that for the Tide to win the NC they must be undefeated or have only one loss. By this, I am assuming that none of the teams selected for the playoff will have more than one loss. I believe that this will cover the vast majority of the likely scenarios that the selection committee will face and their inclinations. No one wants to see a 2 loss team winning the NC, unless there are not enough undefeated or one loss teams to fill out the four team bracket at the end of the season. I very much doubt that the selection committee is going to pick a two loss team over a one loss team for this reason, unless they have no other choice.
The second assumption I am going to make is that the Tide will be favored by an average of 10 points going into every game this year. Of course this will vary from opponent to opponent, but I think that the is generous assumption when averaged over the season, especially including the SEC championship and playoff games, which are likely to have a tighter spread.
Data from the internet says that a 10 point favorite in college ball wins the game 83.4% of the time. If this is the case, the probability that a team favored by 10 points in every game has a 6.8% chance of going undefeated over a 15 game season (12 regular season games, the conference championship and the two playoff games). The same team has a 20% chance of losing one game through the season. So overall, a 10 point favorite has a 26.8% chance of going undefeated or with one loss over the course of the season. So the odds that the Tide will repeat are about 1 in 4 assuming they are favored by an average of 10 in every game. Conversely, the odds are 3 in 4 that they will end up with 2 losses or more.
So...Winning it all requires not only a dominant team, but a lot of luck. CNS job is not an easy one. The odds are almost always going to stacked against him in the long run.
We can calculate this based upon some assumptions and some data from the web. First, I am going to assume that for the Tide to win the NC they must be undefeated or have only one loss. By this, I am assuming that none of the teams selected for the playoff will have more than one loss. I believe that this will cover the vast majority of the likely scenarios that the selection committee will face and their inclinations. No one wants to see a 2 loss team winning the NC, unless there are not enough undefeated or one loss teams to fill out the four team bracket at the end of the season. I very much doubt that the selection committee is going to pick a two loss team over a one loss team for this reason, unless they have no other choice.
The second assumption I am going to make is that the Tide will be favored by an average of 10 points going into every game this year. Of course this will vary from opponent to opponent, but I think that the is generous assumption when averaged over the season, especially including the SEC championship and playoff games, which are likely to have a tighter spread.
Data from the internet says that a 10 point favorite in college ball wins the game 83.4% of the time. If this is the case, the probability that a team favored by 10 points in every game has a 6.8% chance of going undefeated over a 15 game season (12 regular season games, the conference championship and the two playoff games). The same team has a 20% chance of losing one game through the season. So overall, a 10 point favorite has a 26.8% chance of going undefeated or with one loss over the course of the season. So the odds that the Tide will repeat are about 1 in 4 assuming they are favored by an average of 10 in every game. Conversely, the odds are 3 in 4 that they will end up with 2 losses or more.
So...Winning it all requires not only a dominant team, but a lot of luck. CNS job is not an easy one. The odds are almost always going to stacked against him in the long run.
