AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high? (Update 9/12/'16 - 10-10.5)...

deliveryman35

Hall of Fame
Jul 26, 2003
12,998
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Gadsden, AL
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Not if the team plays to its potential. Another outing like this past Saturday though and I firmly believe we will get beat.
 

KrAzY3

Hall of Fame
Jan 18, 2006
10,617
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kraizy.art
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Okay, so now I do think you are Krazy unless maybe Ole Miss has become bored with getting wins over Alabama. They will still think beating Alabama is the best thing ever and they are still in the hunt for the SEC. I like your 2nd paragraph though so maybe I'm crazy too.
I understand your point, but Ole Miss has had depth issues and tends to wear down as the season goes on. Each time they played Alabama it was their first big game of the year and they really showed up. Even if you look at the FSU game, they ran out of steam during the game. I get your point though, still a big deal, but I doubt they will have the same level of energy and enthusiasm they had in the past couple of games. I just feel like the FSU game took a lot out of them.
 
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ALA2262

All-American
Aug 4, 2007
4,977
393
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Cumming, GA
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

^^^this^^^ Ole Miss has been winning early and losing late. This year they lose early, often, and late. They quit for the season during the Bama game.

2016 Ole Miss Rebels


9/5 (Monday): at Florida State (at Orlando, FL)-L
9/10: Wofford-W
9/17: Alabama-L
9/24: Georgia-L
10/1: Memphis-W
10/8: OPEN
10/15: at Arkansas-L
10/22: at LSU-L
10/29: Auburn-W
11/5: Georgia Southern-W
11/12: at Texas A&M-L
11/19: at Vanderbilt-W
11/26: Mississippi State-L

5-7 (2-6)

This is who Bama is playing. Now answer the question.
 
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GrayTide

Hall of Fame
Nov 15, 2005
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Greenbow, Alabama
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Chad Kelly = Stephen Garcia in the sense that both tend to say, screw it I'm going deep a lot. Kelly just gets more consistent results and on that point I agree that overall he is a better QB.

Still, to continue with the comparison, Kelly had his Garcia moment against us last year. I don't think he's going to have a high flying game against this defense. They need us to turn the ball over again, like we've done the past 2 games against them. I believe it will be a low scoring game unless Hurts does not get rattled. If we are able to give him time to throw, and/or get the running game revved up, it will not be a close final score. IMO. Otherwise, we're looking at a low scoring ball game with either team having a chance at the end.
That was my intended point, thanks TE for clarifying.
 

colbysullivan

Hall of Fame
Dec 12, 2007
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Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

If we play our game (IE no turnovers), we'll win by 10+. Our secondary at this time is better than this time last year. We'll be fine.
 

Snuffy Smith

All-American
Sep 12, 2012
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Huntsville, AL
AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

My concerns are:
1. That Chad Kelly has a good game against us like the past two years.
2. We have turn over issues.
3. We let them get off to an early 3 TD lead.
We had a better team the past two years without a doubt but being lucky and fluke plays going against us is hard to beat. Big thing is, don't let them get off to an early lead, keep turnovers to a minimum and keep the penalties to a minimum, especially the ones that negate big plays and 1st downs. I'll be happy with a 1 point win. I love our defense and hope they keep Chad Kelly on his backside all game long.
1. We have only played 1 game against Kelly
2. Hurts threw 1 ill advised pass in USC. Other turnover was his first play. Third was garbage time with backup center and QB. I don't consider that to be a turnover problem.
3. Yeah if we let them get a 3 TD lead at home that could be troublesome.


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jabcmb

All-American
Feb 1, 2006
2,795
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Birmingham, AL
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Ole Miss should not be in this due to lack of running game. Fumbles should not bounce in a straight line for 30 yards. Touchdown passes should not result from QB's fumbling the ball up in the air and re-catching it (twice). Without all the "Play of the Century" BS, Bama wins and beats the line, too.
 

BAMAfan777

1st Team
Jun 25, 2010
668
146
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Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Line is up to -10
It's -11 at some books
Money continues to pour in for the tide
 

day-day

Hall of Fame
Jan 2, 2005
10,041
1,817
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Bartlett, TN (Memphis area)
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

I understand your point, but Ole Miss has had depth issues and tends to wear down as the season goes on. Each time they played Alabama it was their first big game of the year and they really showed up. Even if you look at the FSU game, they ran out of steam during the game. I get your point though, still a big deal, but I doubt they will have the same level of energy and enthusiasm they had in the past couple of games. I just feel like the FSU game took a lot out of them.
Yeah, that is a big difference from the last couple of years. It did seem almost unfair when they could "practice" and prepare their way into the game while Alabama had to prepare and play a tough team.
 

TIDE-HSV

Senior Administrator
Staff member
Oct 13, 1999
84,624
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Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Some line movement assessments, including the battle for the Grove

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1798118
Very good article. His statement: [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] “10 seems like a high number when you’re playing in the SEC on the road, but I’ve got to put up a number where I think I can balance it out.” Is what most fans don't get. For the first 2-3 games of the season the bookies are setting the line realistically, simply because they have limited data to go on. Later in the season, they take into account the betting fans' perceptions of the teams. IOW, where 50% on each side of the betting public think the game will land. TBF, in this case, I expected the line to sink down to around 6 by game time. However, OM continues to have severe attrition. They now have lost their best CB, starting S, their best RBs and their red zone go to tall receiver. It's reflected on their fan boards, where they're hoping to lose a close one or pull one out against all odds...
[/FONT]
 

grlindsey08

3rd Team
Dec 4, 2010
223
3
37
Jasper, AL
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Our defense has me hopeful Ole Miss won't be doing much offensive scoring. But if our offense turns the ball over another 5+ times again.....
 

bamacon

Hall of Fame
Apr 11, 2008
17,181
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College Football's Mecca, Tuscaloosa
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Very good article. His statement: [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] “10 seems like a high number when you’re playing in the SEC on the road, but I’ve got to put up a number where I think I can balance it out.” Is what most fans don't get. For the first 2-3 games of the season the bookies are setting the line realistically, simply because they have limited data to go on. Later in the season, they take into account the betting fans' perceptions of the teams. IOW, where 50% on each side of the betting public think the game will land. TBF, in this case, I expected the line to sink down to around 6 by game time. However, OM continues to have severe attrition. They now have lost their best CB, starting S, their best RBs and their red zone go to tall receiver. It's reflected on their fan boards, where they're hoping to lose a close one or pull one out against all odds...
[/FONT]
It's also important to pay attention to where the "smart money" is going. It's why fans are discouraged from betting on "their" team. Fandom can cloud judgment for sure.


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rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
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232
Tuscaloosa
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Seems absurdly high now but I'm not one to doubt Vegas too much.
 

TIDE-HSV

Senior Administrator
Staff member
Oct 13, 1999
84,624
39,849
437
Huntsville, AL,USA
Re: AL favored by 8.5 over Ole Miss. Is that too high?

Seems absurdly high now but I'm not one to doubt Vegas too much.
It is really mostly "vegas" now, but, as I said above, as the season wears on, it's more Vegas plus the accumulated wisdom of the betting public...
 

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