Nick Saban could etch his name next to Bear Bryant this week (wins against AP ranked)

selmaborntidefan · Sep 16, 2016

I think it's possible to read too much (or even too little) into what is certainly a great accomplishment.

If you beat #9 Clemson in the season opener but they were a .500 team, does it really mean that much? All it proves is that the preseason prognosticators weren't omniscient. Does anyone here really believe that UCLA's 2000 season opening win over #3 Alabama is remembered by the Bruins as a truly awesome moment? Central Florida beat that same Alabama team.

What if USC is really terrible and finishes 4-8 this year? Our 52-6 win over a Top 25 team still counts even though they weren't really a Top 25 team.

There are other problems immediately evident in the comparison.

1) Not only were the rankings solely Top 20 when Bryant coached (leading to the question, "How many Saban teams were in the slots 21-25), but from 1962-1967 the rankings were shrunk to ONLY the Top Ten. That was during a period of extreme Alabama dominance, but if a team was ranked #11 then it doesn't count. What's the real count for those years?

2) Teams play more games per season nowadays. We've gone from ten or eleven up to fourteen or fifteen games and one of those additional games - the SECCG - will virtually ALWAYS have a ranked foe. Of course, the additional OOC games sometimes give us one ranked opponent.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Wikipedia rankings for whom we played and how they ended the season during Saban's tenure at Alabama.

Saban wins versus Top 25 at Alabama

2008
#9 Clemson (finished unranked)
#3 UGA (finished 10 and 13)
#15 LSU (finished unranked)

2009
#7 Va Tech (finished 10)
#20 Ole Miss (finished 21)
#22 SCAR (finished unranked)
#9 LSU (finished 17)
#1 Florida
#2 Texas

2010
#18 Penn State (finished unranked)
#10 Arky (finished 12)
#7 Florida (uranked)
#17 MSU (finished 17th)
#7 Michigan St

2011
#23 Penn State (finished unranked)
#14 Arky (finished #5)
#12 Florida (finished unranked)
#24 Auburn (unranked)
#1 LSU

2012
#8 Michigan (ended at 24)
#13 Miss State (ended unranked)
#5 LSU (finished 12 and 14)
#3 UGA
#1 Notre Dame

2013
#6 ATM (ended 18th)
#21 Ole Miss (ended unranked)
#10 LSU (ended 14th)

2014
#21 ATM (unranked)
#16 LSU (unranked)
#1 MSU (ended 12th)
#15 Auburn (ended 23rd)
#16 Mizzou (ended 11th)

2015
#20 Wisky (ended 21)
#8 UGA (ended 24)
#9 ATM (uranked)
#2 LSU (ended 17)
#17 MSU (unranked)
#18 Florida (ended 25)
#3 Mich St
#1 Clemson

Fourteen teams - nearly half - were unranked at the end of the season. Of course, some of those have extenuating circumstances. Penn State looked VERY good in 2011, losing only to Alabama. And then the Sandusky scandal erupted and they imploded in a mish-mash of controversy. They were probably a better team than their final ranking had the scandal not broke.

ATM was ranked very highly and ran into a 59-0 buzz saw. That was the end of them.

Does that even really count as a Top 25 win in a rational world?

And what about teams that weren't ranked when you played them but ended up ranked in the Top 25 in the final poll? I don't know of any off the top of my head, but I'm sure it's happened. Shouldn't that count as a Top 25 win?

It's a great accomplishment either way, but it is viewed through the lens of the current time and some inconsistencies in both directions.

UntouchableCrew · Sep 16, 2016

Very good points Selma... I'd be curious to see records for teams against opponents that ended the season ranked.

GP for Bama · Sep 16, 2016

Like I (and many others) have said before......It's a GREAT time to be a Bama fan!

BamaInBham · Sep 16, 2016

selmaborntidefan said:
I think it's possible to read too much (or even too little) into what is certainly a great accomplishment.

If you beat #9 Clemson in the season opener but they were a .500 team, does it really mean that much? All it proves is that the preseason prognosticators weren't omniscient. Does anyone here really believe that UCLA's 2000 season opening win over #3 Alabama is remembered by the Bruins as a truly awesome moment? Central Florida beat that same Alabama team.

What if USC is really terrible and finishes 4-8 this year? Our 52-6 win over a Top 25 team still counts even though they weren't really a Top 25 team.

There are other problems immediately evident in the comparison.

1) Not only were the rankings solely Top 20 when Bryant coached (leading to the question, "How many Saban teams were in the slots 21-25), but from 1962-1967 the rankings were shrunk to ONLY the Top Ten. That was during a period of extreme Alabama dominance, but if a team was ranked #11 then it doesn't count. What's the real count for those years?

2) Teams play more games per season nowadays. We've gone from ten or eleven up to fourteen or fifteen games and one of those additional games - the SECCG - will virtually ALWAYS have a ranked foe. Of course, the additional OOC games sometimes give us one ranked opponent.

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Wikipedia rankings for whom we played and how they ended the season during Saban's tenure at Alabama.

Saban wins versus Top 25 at Alabama

2008
#9 Clemson (finished unranked)
#3 UGA (finished 10 and 13)
#15 LSU (finished unranked)

2009
#7 Va Tech (finished 10)
#20 Ole Miss (finished 21)
#22 SCAR (finished unranked)
#9 LSU (finished 17)
#1 Florida
#2 Texas

2010
#18 Penn State (finished unranked)
#10 Arky (finished 12)
#7 Florida (uranked)
#17 MSU (finished 17th)
#7 Michigan St

2011
#23 Penn State (finished unranked)
#14 Arky (finished #5)
#12 Florida (finished unranked)
#24 Auburn (unranked)
#1 LSU

2012
#8 Michigan (ended at 24)
#13 Miss State (ended unranked)
#5 LSU (finished 12 and 14)
#3 UGA
#1 Notre Dame

2013
#6 ATM (ended 18th)
#21 Ole Miss (ended unranked)
#10 LSU (ended 14th)

2014
#21 ATM (unranked)
#16 LSU (unranked)
#1 MSU (ended 12th)
#15 Auburn (ended 23rd)
#16 Mizzou (ended 11th)

2015
#20 Wisky (ended 21)
#8 UGA (ended 24)
#9 ATM (uranked)
#2 LSU (ended 17)
#17 MSU (unranked)
#18 Florida (ended 25)
#3 Mich St
#1 Clemson

Fourteen teams - nearly half - were unranked at the end of the season. Of course, some of those have extenuating circumstances. Penn State looked VERY good in 2011, losing only to Alabama. And then the Sandusky scandal erupted and they imploded in a mish-mash of controversy. They were probably a better team than their final ranking had the scandal not broke.

ATM was ranked very highly and ran into a 59-0 buzz saw. That was the end of them.

Does that even really count as a Top 25 win in a rational world?

And what about teams that weren't ranked when you played them but ended up ranked in the Top 25 in the final poll? I don't know of any off the top of my head, but I'm sure it's happened. Shouldn't that count as a Top 25 win?

It's a great accomplishment either way, but it is viewed through the lens of the current time and some inconsistencies in both directions.

As far as final vs in-season rankings, that is true of all coaches' records. Which means what you are saying is that this metric doesn't have the value some might think. That's fair, but it is simply one measurement among a few others. In reality, as most know, even the final rankings are quite subjective, especially in the past. But this is simply one measure that has some value. I think most know this is just one fact of interest.

As far as there being more ranked teams now, in regard to the comparison between Bryant and Saban, IMO, that is remedied by looking at their records against top 10 teams, which as a percentage is almost the same as their records against all ranked teams. Saban's drops .5% to 75.9 %, Bryant's 2.6 % to 63.0 %. Both tremendous records whether it's in-season or final rankings.

They both had good records against number 1 teams, with most played after the regular season. The exceptions were USC '77, finished 8-4 #13; LSU '11, finished #2; MSU '14, finished #11. Saban 5-1, Bryant 2-1.

TideEngineer08 · Sep 16, 2016

I think the reason you have to give weight to where the teams are ranked when you play them is how did their loss to you effect the remainder of their season. I have no doubt that many of the ranked teams that have lost to Alabama under Nick Saban had invested a LOT of energy into beating us. When it did not work out, sometimes spectacularly so, they took a while to recover as a team. Some of them did not. For instance, LSU last year was a popular pick to win it all and Fournette was the Heisman front runner coming into the Alabama game. When the game was over, both of those possibilities were absolutely shattered for LSU and I have no doubt that crushed their will to continue the season. By the time they recovered, Les Miles was almost unemployed. It can be argued they have not yet recovered..

selmaborntidefan · Sep 16, 2016

BamaInBham said:
As far as final vs in-season rankings, that is true of all coaches' records. Which means what you are saying is that this metric doesn't have the value some might think. That's fair, but it is simply one measurement among a few others. In reality, as most know, even the final rankings are quite subjective, especially in the past. But this is simply one measure that has some value. I think most know this is just one fact of interest.

As far as there being more ranked teams now, in regard to the comparison between Bryant and Saban, IMO, that is remedied by looking at their records against top 10 teams, which as a percentage is almost the same as their records against all ranked teams. Saban's drops .5% to 75.9 %, Bryant's 2.6 % to 63.0 %. Both tremendous records whether it's in-season or final rankings.

They both had good records against number 1 teams, with most played after the regular season. The exceptions were USC '77, finished 8-4 #13; LSU '11, finished #2; MSU '14, finished #11. Saban 5-1, Bryant 2-1.

You make some valid points and were I not posting from work and in a hurry, I probably make some of those, but thank you for providing perspective.

I would only argue (slightly) the notion that the polls were slanted back then (which is true) but not slanted now. Less so? Probably. I've ranted on here before about teams like Purdue going 4-4-1 and finishing tied for 19th simply because they were in the Big Ten. On the flip side, a team can start the year number one and lose to two really good teams and not fall far, lose their rivalry game then lose the bowl game - and while the season is disappointing, they'll wind up 22nd or something but still ranked with a 9-4 record, which may or may not be a good thing.

I think the only 'real' way to go is wins versus teams who finish the year in the top ten. Of course - again - there CAN be extenuating circumstances. While 2011 Penn State is a good example, what if you have a really good team with a really good coach and he dies before the game is played? I don't know that that's ever happened in NCAA FBS, but it's possible. And you have teams that because Player X was out the first half of the season were not ranked but finished ranked.

Let's look at Coach Bryant solely at Alabama for some more data:

1958
#19 Miss State (coming off a 6-2-1 year, they went 3-6 and were horrible)
#20 Ga Tech (unranked)

1959
#15 Ga Tech (unranked)
#11 Auburn (#15)

1960
#13 UGA (unranked)
#8 Auburn (#13)

1961
#9 Arkansas

1962
#8 Oklahoma

1963
#7 Ole Miss (Sugar Bowl)

1964
#9 Florida (unranked)
#8 LSU (finished sixth)
#10 Ga Tech (uranked)

1965
#3 Nebraska

1966
#6 Nebraska

1967
none

1968
#18 Auburn (unranked, 7-4)

1969
#20 Ole Miss (finished #8)

1970
#13 Florida (unranked)
#15 Houston (finished 19th)

1971
#5 USC (the famous wishbone game...but they ended the year unranked)
#14 Tennessee (9)
#18 LSU (11)
#5 Auburn (12)

1972
#10 Tenn (8)
#6 LSU (11)

1973
#10 Tenn (19)

1974
#14 Maryland (13)
#17 MSU (17)
#7 Auburn (8)

1975
#16 Tenn (unranked)
#8 Penn St (10)

1976
#18 MSU (20 - later forfeited all games due to sanctions)
#7 UCLA (15)

1977
#1 USC (13)
#18 LSU (unranked)
#9 Ohio St

1978
#10 Nebraska (8)
#11 Mizzou (15)
#10 LSU (unranked)

1979
#18 Tenn (unranked)
#14 Auburn (16)
#6 Arky (9)

1980
#20 USM (uranked)
#6 Baylor (14)

1981
#7 MSU (17)
#5 Penn St (3)

1982
#3 Penn State (national champions)

Alasippi · Sep 16, 2016

The only significant difference between the two, in my opinion, is that Coach Bryant could take average players and beat a team of highly talented players because he could motivate like no other.
Coach Saban's process, in order to work, has to have great players.
But it's two different era's and I think there's no debate that they're both the best of their times.

Sabanizer · Sep 16, 2016

Alasippi said:
The only significant difference between the two, in my opinion, is that Coach Bryant could take average players and beat a team of highly talented players because he could motivate like no other.
Coach Saban's process, in order to work, has to have great players.
But it's two different era's and I think there's no debate that they're both the best of their times.

On the flip side is was easier to find quality players if you had 140 to choose from. It takes the chances of recruiting error down. Stallings. 14 players
1995 Class – Gene Stallings
Name Pos. St. Incoming Rating Outgoing Rating Honors NFL
Shaun Alexander RB KY 5 6 A-A, SEC (2) *
Fernando Bryant CB TN 4 6 SEC (3) *
Sharmari Buchanan WR GA 3 4
Michael Feagin CB AL 3 3
Reggie Grimes FB TN 5 4
Thomas Hill CB MS 3 2
Kevin Jackson (JC) SS MS 5 6 A-A, SEC (2) *
Jason McDonald OL AL 4 4
Michael Moore OL AL 5 1
Chris Samuels OL AL 3 6 A-A, SEC (3) *
Kelvin Sigler FS AL 5 5
Steve Stanley FS AL 5 4
Michael Vaughn WR MS 5 4
Clint Waggoner TE GA 3 4

Overall 4.1 4.2 A-A (3), SEC (4) 4

Alasippi · Sep 16, 2016

Sabanizer said:
On the flip side is was easier to find quality players if you had 140 to choose from. It takes the chances of recruiting error down. Stallings. 14 players
1995 Class – Gene Stallings
Name Pos. St. Incoming Rating Outgoing Rating Honors NFL
Shaun Alexander RB KY 5 6 A-A, SEC (2) *
Fernando Bryant CB TN 4 6 SEC (3) *
Sharmari Buchanan WR GA 3 4
Michael Feagin CB AL 3 3
Reggie Grimes FB TN 5 4
Thomas Hill CB MS 3 2
Kevin Jackson (JC) SS MS 5 6 A-A, SEC (2) *
Jason McDonald OL AL 4 4
Michael Moore OL AL 5 1
Chris Samuels OL AL 3 6 A-A, SEC (3) *
Kelvin Sigler FS AL 5 5
Steve Stanley FS AL 5 4
Michael Vaughn WR MS 5 4
Clint Waggoner TE GA 3 4

Overall 4.1 4.2 A-A (3), SEC (4) 4

My point was----Coach Bryant may have a slight edge because he was incredible at motivating lesser talented players to play beyond their talent level and accomplish great things.
Coach Saban's process requires that there be no lesser talented players.
Both systems obviously work(ed), but from a pure "Coaching" perspective, I give a slight edge to Coach Bryant.
But they are both the best of the era, without question, no doubt about it!

BamaInBham · Sep 16, 2016

I agree regarding Coach Bryant, not regarding Coach Saban. There were 2 seasons at Bama where he did not have talent superior to most of the SEC.

In '07 he took a vastly more talented UGA (finished #2) to OT; beat superior Ark; and boat-raced a UT team that had Foster, Ainge, et al. and took LSU to the wire in the SECC game and finished #12. Then in the most incredible performance since they beat Neb in the '66 Orange Bowl, Bama took eventual NC, LSU to a 4th and 4 stop from winning the West. Bama didn't have more than 2 players who would have started for LSU. It was an epic performance. Yes, they collapsed after OC MA called the terrible sequence at the end of the 1st half against MSU that demoralized the team. But they had come within an eyelash of winning the west with the 5th or 6th best talent in the division. They started essentially 3 walk-ons on defense - even Vandy doesn't do that.

In '08, they were undefeated in the reg season primarily with Mike Shula's recruits and a few of his own very young ones. They had been processed and played beyond their capabilities and had a lead in the 4th quarter against the eventual NCs who were far more talented. Another amazing job.

They have beaten other teams that had as much or more talent since then, they just haven't had many opportunities. Saban can definitely take yours and beat his. He did it at LSU and I assume at MSU, as well as the NFL. He is a great motivator, strategist and in-game manager, who also knows the rules probably better than most officials. He is far more aggressive than most defensive coaches. He's usually a great clock manager.

Bama had more talent in the '70s than almost anyone they played. It was not as true in the 60s where there were probably less than half the NFL draftees that they had in the 70s. But Bama never played any "big boys" during the reg season, but would often give a monumental, once a season effort to beat more talented teams in a bowl. In the 8 seasons from 60-67, Bama played 6 ranked teams in the reg season, all SEC, and only 5 ranked teams in bowl games from outside the region. They went 4-1. Not many "intersectional" games as they were then called. That's just the way it was in the SEC and most conferences back then. The SEC was probably short-changed as far as having ranked teams. There was bias, as well as ignorance since few teams were televised, especially SEC teams. In the 60s, primarily Bama from the South, no night games, 1 network, ABC. I guess 11 or 12 games a year. But the voters did vote the SEC, top 5, beginning with num 2, 4 in 56; 1 in 57; 1 in 58; 2, 3, 5 in 59, 2 in 60; 1, 4, 5 in 61; 3, 5 in 62; 5 in 63; 1 in 64; 1 in 65; 3, 4 in 66. Bama usually did not play the other top 5 teams in the SEC.

Coach Bryant certainly beat more talented teams, Coach Saban has as well.

Sorry for the tome, it was unintentional.

JBama_in_PCOLA · Sep 16, 2016

Doesn't CNS have more top 10 wins than any coach in history?

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Alasippi · Sep 16, 2016

JBama_in_PCOLA said:
Doesn't CNS have more top 10 wins than any coach in history?

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I'll give an example of how good Coach Bryant was........
Alvin Samples.
Unless I'm horribly mistaken, he was a consensus first team All-American offensive guard on the 66, "missing ring", team.
He never played a down in the NFL.
Thus my point. Coach Bryant could take average players and make them great.
Coach Saban takes great players and makes them be as good as they should be.
But he has to have great players in order to win championships. Bryant didn't.
We'll go to the grave on this one my friend

JBama_in_PCOLA · Sep 16, 2016

Alasippi said:
I'll give an example of how good Coach Bryant was........
Alvin Samples.
Unless I'm horribly mistaken, he was a consensus first team All-American offensive guard on the 66, "missing ring", team.
He never played a down in the NFL.
Thus my point. Coach Bryant could take average players and make them great.
Coach Saban takes great players and makes them be as good as they should be.
But he has to have great players in order to win championships. Bryant didn't.
We'll go to the grave on this one my friend

No argument from me.

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Sabanizer · Sep 17, 2016

Coach Saban raised a forgotten Bama for nearly 15 years, minus a couple of season's and went supernova. Not who is best, but his importance to the program equals all of the greats. They all built off each other to create the most dominant program in college football history and in the top of any popular sport in the world. Coach Saban knew Bama could be turned around fast.

We see what is relevant today. Think of all the long gone Bama fans since 1892. I pay respect to the majority of Bama fans that are no longer with us. Maybe 8 Million? Just a guess. Many more gone than alive, and that has probably changed in my 50 years of living.

selmaborntidefan · Sep 17, 2016

Alasippi said:
The only significant difference between the two, in my opinion, is that Coach Bryant could take average players and beat a team of highly talented players because he could motivate like no other.

I know that cliche has been around, but is it REALLY even remotely true? I don't dispute Bryant's skill as a motivator, that is established quite well. But it's not like he had nothing to work with at Kentucky, ATM, or Alabama. The one year he had literally nothing to work with was his only losing season. On that team that he first recruited just happened to be his only Heisman winner, who surely would fall under the rubric of 'great player.' At a time when you had no scholarship limitations - as long as he could keep a game close - he could switch in and out with the depth and just so long as a player was even minimally capable, he had fresh bodies in the fourth quarter. Of course, that's not to disparage Bryant because that option was open to almost everybody but I don't see any other coaches with six national championships.

Coach Bryant was a transformational figure in a way that Coach Saban could never be because of timing. Bryant oversaw a truckload of social changes (the most obvious being integration), and his winning three titles with lily white teams followed by three more with integrated teams is a mind-boggling accomplishment that unquestionably testifies to his greatness. I believe it was the 1979 Sugar Bowl I was watching where Frank Broyles noted that Bryant had been responsible for more changes in the rules than any other coach and "I sit on that committee!"

Taking just a cursory look, Bryant's first team at Kentucky (1946) went 7-3. Who did they lose to? The only three ranked teams they played. While his overall record at UK was 60-23-6, his SEC record at Kentucky was barely above .500 (22-19-4). Although he is well-remembered for his 1950 UK team that was retroactively named #1 by Sagarin (they beat national champ OU in the Sugar Bowl), his next three teams were 8-4, 5-4-2, and 7-2-1. Those are in years 6-7-8 at a school without (many) great players. His record at UK against ranked teams was less than stellar.

Of course, that's not all there is to Coach Bryant (statistics) and I get that. But it goes back to what someone (and the name has slipped my mind) observed about six years ago on this board - Saban could not have done at Michigan State what he has done at Alabama. That's true - but Bryant could not have won six national titles at UK, either. You MUST have the support of the alumni, the school itself, everyone. And Bryant's greatest legacy is how productive IN LIFE he made his players - something all of those who played for him attest. Seriously - have you ever heard a former player of Bryant's who stayed through school bad mouth him to the press?

Alasippi said:
Coach Saban's process, in order to work, has to have great players.
But it's two different era's and I think there's no debate that they're both the best of their times.

I think both needed great players, that you are correct that they're both the best of their times - and this is a great problem to have. We've gone in a decade from debating why we're on probation (yet again) to whether our current coach or former coach is the greatest and the other second.

That's a great problem to have.

JBama_in_PCOLA · Sep 17, 2016

Sabanizer said:
Coach Saban raised a forgotten Bama for nearly 15 years, minus a couple of season's and went supernova. Not who is best, but his importance to the program equals all of the greats. They all built off each other to create the most dominant program in college football history and in the top of any popular sport in the world. Coach Saban knew Bama could be turned around fast.

We see what is relevant today. Think of all the long gone Bama fans since 1892. I pay respect to the majority of Bama fans that are no longer with us. Maybe 8 Million? Just a guess. Many more gone than alive, and that has probably changed in my 50 years of living.

You're 50?! [emoji33]

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Crimson1967 · Sep 17, 2016

I love being a fan where you can have a heated argument over who your best coach is. Wallace Wade, anyone? Frank Thomas? Xen C. Scott died too young.

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selmaborntidefan · Sep 17, 2016

Crimson1967 said:
I love being a fan where you can have a heated argument over who your best coach is. Wallace Wade, anyone? Frank Thomas? Xen C. Scott died too young.

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Probably the even more amazing thing is that when the USA Today College Football Encyclopedia was selecting the greatest coaches in the history of a school (easy most places but very difficult in places like Alabama, USC, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma), they selected Coach Bryant as the greatest coach in the history of the University of Kentucky.

Crimson1967 · Sep 17, 2016

Bryant has the most wins at UK with 60.

Vandy had a coach win 198 games, though he retired in 1934.

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Nick Saban could etch his name next to Bear Bryant this week (wins against AP ranked)

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