Going deep: What the numbers show about Tide QB Jalen Hurts

Bamabuzzard · Sep 16, 2016

Each game that Hurts gets under his belt the better he will get. The two games he's already played will serve him well against Ole Miss. To me he's further along after two games than Coker was after is first two games. What helps Hurts is his ability to escape trouble and continue to look downfield or take off running. That will come in handy Saturday. I expect Kiffin to keep Ole Miss' defense in check by using a lot of jet sweeps, designed qb runs and screen passes. And we all know we'll take a few shots down the field to try to connect on a couple big ones.

bamacon · Sep 16, 2016

This will get solved. Keep in mind that he's likely never had receivers this fast. I think he's underestimating just how fast they are. He'll get it down soon enough. Blake was a senior when we saw him do it. Remember his A-Day game?

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deliveryman35 · Sep 16, 2016

Hurts also seems to be much more effective throwing when he rolls out of the pocket. He seems(at least to me)to be struggling a bit with being able to see clearly downfield when he drops straight back.

rgw · Sep 16, 2016

Bamabuzzard said:
Each game that Hurts gets under his belt the better he will get. The two games he's already played will serve him well against Ole Miss. To me he's further along after two games than Coker was after is first two games. What helps Hurts is his ability to escape trouble and continue to look downfield or take off running. That will come in handy Saturday. I expect Kiffin to keep Ole Miss' defense in check by using a lot of jet sweeps, designed qb runs and screen passes. And we all know we'll take a few shots down the field to try to connect on a couple big ones.

That's fair too...Coker was such a different QB around 4th quarter of the Tennessee game to the end of the season that I forget that he was making some terrible decisions in the pocket: overextending plays for bad sacks, make terrible, TERRIBLE throws for interceptions. Hurts hasn't been guilty of that so far, so his proclivity for interceptions isn't going to be based on bad composure or understanding of game-situation.

bamaslammer · Sep 16, 2016

It's probably worth noting that this time last year we were still trying to determine who the QB was and we know that now so we can game plan to his specific skill set. This to me is one of Kiffin's strengths is his ability to take the player and build plays to take advantage of his best skills.

Wilson Monroe · Sep 16, 2016

True freshman QB. Learning curve is steeper than with a guy who has gotten comfortable with the college game through a redshirt and an offseason. I have been really impressed so far that he has been able to keep his composure and not throw blind.

I think the throwing receivers open thing will take some time with experience and confidence in game situations. We have to remember that CNS will not allow many turnovers before he pulls a QB. Hurts knows that, and the competition for the starting job is not far behind Hurts with Barnett still coming in the game not just in mop-up time. I am sure it's still in his mind and he has to "see" the open receiver before he turns the ball loose.

TIDE-HSV · Sep 16, 2016

gtgilbert said:
This is my thought also. Sometimes the QB doesn't have to put it on a rope for the deep ball and it's better to put just a little lift under the ball to give the WR a chance to run under it into the open space. OTOH, on those routes it's better to over throw than underthrow. I'm sure they'll continue to work on it to get the timing and touch right.

I think we got spoiled by Blake's, AJ's and Jake's deep balls. Croyle, however, had the problem you mention. His deep ball looked like a howitzer trajectory, rather than a mortar. The second it left his hand, you knew he'd overthrown it and you knew the receiver didn't have a chance of catching up to it...

gtgilbert · Sep 16, 2016

TIDE-HSV said:
I think we got spoiled by Blake's, AJ's and Jake's deep balls. Croyle, however, had the problem you mention. His deep ball looked like a howitzer trajectory, rather than a mortar. The second it left his hand, you knew he'd overthrown it and you knew the receiver didn't have a chance of catching up to it...

We certainly did. folks were quick to jump all over some of those guys for a lack of arm strength, but they knew how to loft a ball right where it needed to be on the go route with a receiver starting to pull away from a DB. It's a lot different throw than throwing a deep out route, even though the ball travels the same distance in the air. JH obviously has the arm strength to do both, hopefully just needs time to learn the right touch.

Ole Man Dan · Sep 16, 2016

Sabanizer said:
After thought, I believe the quarterback battle will still be in play considering how Jalen performs. I predict he will make it through this test, which will be much more of a challenge than the first two games. No way coach Saban is going to lose this game. I hope we can keep their defense honest.

I saw it a little different. I saw Jalen as the man to beat. His performance in the Spring Game, coupled with his performance in Fall Practice told me he was indeed 'Special'... All along I saw the competition as being between Hurts and Barnett. Jalen displayed more composure in the first two games. I kind of thought the competition was nearly over after the USC game. Jalen didn't play like a Freshman...

Alasippi · Sep 16, 2016

Statistical fact--Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger completed zero per cent of passes he threw over ten yards downfield to the right side of the field Monday night against Washington.

Statistical conclusion-Ben can't throw to his right.

Reality- Nobody completes passes to the right side of the field against Washington because Josh Norman plays left corner.

Point--Quarterback statistics involve a bunch more issues than just the quarterback's ability to throw.
Dropped balls, holding penalties on 60 yard completions, under throws indeed, pressure by the defense etc. all play a part. So it's really way too arbitrary to say Jalen isn't a good passer "this far down the field" and such.
You have to look at the entire scenario of the play(s).
However all the true stat believers will surely be interested to know that Jalen has the second highest passer rating of all current starters in the SEC with a 157.9..or two points higher than Chad Kelly's.

Now, talk to me about the accuracy of statistics

JBama_in_PCOLA · Sep 16, 2016

I don't know. He has thrown a few good ropes to Ridley.

rgw said:
I have no concerns about his ability to get it out to a deep receiver. I'm a bit worried about his tendency to just throw ropes with minimal or no touch...those are imminently intercept-able against conference opponents. It is great to see a guy behind center who is capable of making deep outs and comebacks like an NFL QB. That is a rare talent for a college quarterback and frankly we haven't had many of those guys here. It is also a great thing to see when he rifles a short pass in the right spot to give the receiver an honest chance to make a move. We kinda lacked that at times last season.

I suspect that we're going to RPO the crap out of Ole Miss this week. Give him basically a triple option where he only throws it deep if he knows the guy is wide open or is able to extend the roll out action long enough to flip it to the receiver like we've seen against us in the past. What I've seen from him in more traditional dropbacks indicates he may be a bit of a turnover risk against Ole Miss going that route.

The longterm goal is to smooth out the regular pro-style spread passing but as long as we don't self-inflict a big deficit like last year then I imagine we're going to try to splash play on them.

JBama_in_PCOLA · Sep 16, 2016

I read the article finally and they hardly take into account the drops on perfect throws.

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CoachJeff · Sep 16, 2016

I think Hurts will be fine. He's just late. That TD to Stewart against USC was underthrown, but it was a 55 yard throw. AJ was always long early on. Id be more worried about lack of arm strength. This is fixable.

rgw · Sep 16, 2016

I'd note that I'm not saying that Hurts can't throw deep. I just think the way he throws a 10+ yarder in his two appearances is more prone to interceptions than a guy who maybe has less pure arm strength. I'm still excited because that is something that will likely improve has he matures over the next three years. You can't teach throwing a ten yard out right at the sticks where nobody but the receiver can catch it when in man coverage. OR rifling a deep comeback route throw such that it is on the receiver before the DB can even react to the WR's change of direction. You either have the ball velocity to get that out there or you don't. Hurts has that ball velocity. He seems to have a natural leadership demeanor. The things he naturally has are so ahead of schedule that I can live with the aspects of QB play that are more "skill acquisition" based like touch and reading high-caliber defenses.

The caveat being that the rest of the team steps up and we manage the scenario until he comes into his own.

Billyreuben · Sep 16, 2016

Alasippi said:
Statistical fact--Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger completed zero per cent of passes he threw over ten yards downfield to the right side of the field Monday night against Washington.

Statistical conclusion-Ben can't throw to his right.

Reality- Nobody completes passes to the right side of the field against Washington because Josh Norman plays left corner.

Point--Quarterback statistics involve a bunch more issues than just the quarterback's ability to throw.
Dropped balls, holding penalties on 60 yard completions, under throws indeed, pressure by the defense etc. all play a part. So it's really way too arbitrary to say Jalen isn't a good passer "this far down the field" and such.
You have to look at the entire scenario of the play(s).
However all the true stat believers will surely be interested to know that Jalen has the second highest passer rating of all current starters in the SEC with a 157.9..or two points higher than Chad Kelly's.

Now, talk to me about the accuracy of statistics

I was just about ready to post something along these lines when I saw your post. I agree. Also, even beyond the accuracy of statistics is the significance of a particular measurement. It seems to me that the Key Performance Indicator for the Offense is the ability to score; whatever the method. That said, I think we are doing pretty well with both QBs...and the entire Offense.

BamaInBham · Sep 16, 2016

Two things are especially important about Jalen Hurts, both unquantifiable: 1) his tremendous poise 2) the fact Coach Saban said this week that "it means a lot to him", resulting in study, effort, etc. His playing manner is such that sometimes he looks nonchalant, but he's not, he cares a lot.

Manner, demeanor and playing attitude are poor barometers of how much a player cares. He can be fiery at game-time but not do the work to prepare and he can be reserved but has passionately prepared. You need a another knowledgable source to render the verdict. Saban said he cares. Frankly, you can't ask for more. Mistakes are much more palatable coming from someone like that.

Alasippi · Sep 16, 2016

Billyreuben said:
I was just about ready to post something along these lines when I saw your post. I agree. Also, even beyond the accuracy of statistics is the significance of a particular measurement. It seems to me that the Key Performance Indicator for the Offense is the ability to score; whatever the method. That said, I think we are doing pretty well with both QBs...and the entire Offense.

Agreed. Hopefully we'll light Ole Miss up tomorrow.

Sabanizer · Sep 16, 2016

BamaInBham said:
He can be fiery at game-time but not do the work to prepare and he can be reserved but has passionately prepared. You need a another knowledgable source to render the verdict. Saban said he cares. Frankly, you can't ask for more. Mistakes are much more palatable coming from someone like that.

I liked his calmer demeanor vs WKU. There was nearly no reason to ever get overly excited. AJ could get fired up when needed, and Coker was more steely. For as good as Jalen is, he is still a game manager that runs a machine. I like to see excitement after success.

Bamabuzzard · Sep 17, 2016

rgw said:
That's fair too...Coker was such a different QB around 4th quarter of the Tennessee game to the end of the season that I forget that he was making some terrible decisions in the pocket: overextending plays for bad sacks, make terrible, TERRIBLE throws for interceptions. Hurts hasn't been guilty of that so far, so his proclivity for interceptions isn't going to be based on bad composure or understanding of game-situation.

Hurts has better quickness with regard to getting out of the pocket at a quicker pace. Coker was mobile by definition but unlike Blake Sims and now Hurts. He couldn't go from being under pressure in the pocket to escaping and being two, three yards down field in the blink of an eye. Sims and now Hurts can do that. Hurts has that ability which I think will slow down Ole Miss' pressure from the front seven. I think we win by 17 to be honest.

TIDE-HSV · Sep 17, 2016

Bamabuzzard said:
Hurts has better quickness with regard to getting out of the pocket at a quicker pace. Coker was mobile by definition but unlike Blake Sims and now Hurts. He couldn't go from being under pressure in the pocket to escaping and being two, three yards down field in the blink of an eye. Sims and now Hurts can do that. Hurts has that ability which I think will slow down Ole Miss' pressure from the front seven. I think we win by 17 to be honest.

Yes. I'd like to see a couple of QB draws, if they start getting penetration...

Going deep: What the numbers show about Tide QB Jalen Hurts

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