Yo Colley, the 80's called and they want their Commodore 64 back.
Yo Colley, the 80's called and they want their Commodore 64 back.
Garbage in = garbage out.Alabama at 10th...?
I think I know what happened to that fifteen year old from awbern...
They do have quality wins over Delaware, Tulane, Indiana, and Duke, which beat Notre Dame at home!Wake Forrest over us!
Anytime Wake Forest is on a Top 10 Football List -- even if it's week 1.....the software must be checked for a virus.....Computer rankings this early in the season are almost always screwy.
A sign that the Apocalypse is upon us...Anytime Wake Forest is on a Top 10 Football List -- even if it's week 1.....the software must be checked for a virus.....
True. I saw a preseason a big SEC publication that tried to predict every score of every team for entire season lol. First poll after week 2 imo.Computer rankings this early in the season are almost always screwy.
Well, when the result of half the differential equations is NaN, you're going to have a lot of screwy results.Anytime Wake Forest is on a Top 10 Football List -- even if it's week 1.....the software must be checked for a virus.....
Scores are nothing compared to the results of every play they have over at cfbstats.comFull disclosure, I know the guy who runs Atomic. I'd like to pass along things he's told me about rankings:
- the old BCBS rankings were *supposed* to be W/L only, no scores, which amounts to about 11 bits of information on each team for a whole season
- his method is Bayesian, which he describes as "knob-less", i.e. there are no knobs you can tweak, all the numbers come out naturally directly from the math
- the best ranking/chance of winning comes from the Vegas line, not from computers
- many computer rankings "cheat" by salting in some of that Vegas line into their numbers
- you can correlate the computer rankings with Vegas, and figure out what that percentage cheat is, i.e. you can more-or-less reverse engineer each computer algorithm at the end of the season. Basically, the more you cheat, the more accurate your "computer" ranking is.
He told me it is quite a bit of work, keeping up with all the scores and entering them, for hundreds of games per week.
Yeah, LSU will be going after Dave Clawson:wink:wake forrest is 9th. that should tell you everything you need to know
Thanks. I know it takes a lot of work to enter the data for the computers to crunch but I had no idea of how it worked.Full disclosure, I know the guy who runs Atomic. I'd like to pass along things he's told me about rankings:
- the old BCBS rankings were *supposed* to be W/L only, no scores, which amounts to about 11 bits of information on each team for a whole season
- his method is Bayesian, which he describes as "knob-less", i.e. there are no knobs you can tweak, all the numbers come out naturally directly from the math
- the best ranking/chance of winning comes from the Vegas line, not from computers
- many computer rankings "cheat" by salting in some of that Vegas line into their numbers
- you can correlate the computer rankings with Vegas, and figure out what that percentage cheat is, i.e. you can more-or-less reverse engineer each computer algorithm at the end of the season. Basically, the more you cheat, the more accurate your "computer" ranking is.
He told me it is quite a bit of work, keeping up with all the scores and entering them, for hundreds of games per week.
I have kept up with the computer rankings for years and the Colley is a joke. Billingsley is not in the top ten either. If you are interested here are the top four I use to help in pickems and the record thus far:
Atomic: 41-11
Basset: 36-16
Sagaran: 35-17
Vegas Odds: 35-17
Massey: 34-17
There are a couple more, like Pi-rate and Ashby are rated at the top, like atomic, but Pi-rate is too hard for me to figure out and Ashby comes out late in the week, so I dropped them. Massey has a list of them if you want to explore.
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm