JessN: Texas A&M preview: Bama will see a familiar face in battle for SEC West

4Q Basket Case

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Sincere question, Jess....Statistics are heavily in our favor.

What do you see in aTm that keeps their statistics from being a reliable indicator of performance?
 

sanjosecrimson

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The "stats" and info tell me that Alabama should win big. But, this is the eighth game for Alabama before the bye week, and that has meant that Alabama struggles quite a bit against the opponent. I'm leaning towards a close, close game like JessN, but I certainly hope that I'm wrong.
I see no indication of a tired or worn out team. CNS sub during the early 4th quarter for the defense last week.
this team looks and plays fresh 7 weeks into the season. our 4 backs are really, really fresh. we're used to seeing one great back( Henry) with 40 plus touches. what we have now in the backfield is pure luxury!!
 

JessN

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Sincere question, Jess....Statistics are heavily in our favor.

What do you see in aTm that keeps their statistics from being a reliable indicator of performance?
Defensive stats favor Alabama heavily; offensive stats do not (it's a push) and ST stats are in A&M's favor but I will allow for the possibility of a tracking error there given A&M has only returned something like 6 punts on the year.

It wouldn't be a matter of raw stats vs. stats anyway or there wouldn't be any interpretive analysis to do. I think everyone in this thread who is pooh-poohing Knight is sort of doing so at their own peril. We'll see how it all turns out.

p.s.: Fixed the "second-leading tackler" thing.
 
Defensive stats favor Alabama heavily; offensive stats do not (it's a push) and ST stats are in A&M's favor but I will allow for the possibility of a tracking error there given A&M has only returned something like 6 punts on the year.

It wouldn't be a matter of raw stats vs. stats anyway or there wouldn't be any interpretive analysis to do. I think everyone in this thread who is pooh-poohing Knight is sort of doing so at their own peril. We'll see how it all turns out.

p.s.: Fixed the "second-leading tackler" thing.
Aww man! You shouldn't have fixed it! lol


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bamacon

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I'm not sure why people keep bringing up TK having a great game against Bama last time - that was a very different Bama defense and a far more talented OU offense.

He's a good QB, he'll get some yards, but he'll look very mortal on Saturday.
Same reason they talk about the "last time these storied programs met..." in 1966 or something else just as pointless. Bama players were in high school when Bama last played Knight.


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bamacon

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I think that an Alabama WR did something to upset Jess. Two weeks in a row inferior receiving groups are ranked ahead of Alabama's. I think it is just Jess trying not to give everything to Alabama. In this game, the edge at every position group and matchup belongs to Alabama. Some may be close, but the edge is still Alabama's.
CNS had a little talk with him...;)


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bamacon

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The "stats" and info tell me that Alabama should win big. But, this is the eighth game for Alabama before the bye week, and that has meant that Alabama struggles quite a bit against the opponent. I'm leaning towards a close, close game like JessN, but I certainly hope that I'm wrong.
Bama has not played anywhere near as physical games this year compared to last year. Last year they were absolutely on fumes. I think they are in much better shape this year.


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Bama Shoals

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I enjoy reading these previews but sometimes I read them and just scratch my head. Sometimes they're too analytical almost like a computer analysis of the game that doesn't take into account some important factors. This is a Texas A&M defense that gave up over 600 yards to a Tennessee offense at home that we destroyed last week. Their defense is horrendous. So, we're going to score a lot. We haven't scored less than 34 all year. That means it rests on A&M's offense to outscore us. They've been running well but we are the #1 rush defense in the country who should be able to shut that down effectively. So it falls to Knight and company to get it done through the air. Against this pass rush? Good luck! Throw in the fact that our defense is hearing that Knight is Alabama's kryptonite and they're going to come after him like their collective hair is on fire. I just don't see the game going anything like the preview except if we self-destruct. Which, with their pass rush and our propensity for bad QB fumbles in the pocket could happen. But it's a long shot at best.
 

RTR91

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It wouldn't be a matter of raw stats vs. stats anyway or there wouldn't be any interpretive analysis to do. I think everyone in this thread who is pooh-poohing Knight is sort of doing so at their own peril. We'll see how it all turns out.
To say TAMU hasn't played a defense like Alabama's is an understatement.

Their opponents average giving up 385.95 yards a game. Alabama averages giving up 274 a game. UCLA and Auburn's 344 and 346 averages are the best A&M has faced thus far.

Alabama averages 111.49 in defensive pass efficiency. UCLA, Auburn, and South Carolina beat Alabama in the stat.

A&M hasn't faced a rush defense that gives up less than 146 yards per game. Alabama gives up 64 yards.

Their opponents average 24.7 points a game compared to Alabama's 15.

Their OL must be pretty strong since they've only given up 6 sacks on the season while their opponents average 14 on the year. Then again, Prairie View skews the stats since they have 25 on the year whil second place is Arkansas with 15. (Alabama has 27.)

Tennessee is the only opponent with more turnovers (15) on the year than Alabama (14).

Bama crushes their opponents in third down conversation rate, though. 29.7% to a 38.7% average. The closest team is Auburn at 31.5%.

Bama's red-zone average isn't great (80%), but that's partly due to Bama giving up 12 scores in 15 tries. Auburn's defense has given up the least amount of scores with 15 scores out of 22 tries. All of TAMU's opponents have defended the red-zone at least 22 times.

Barring craziness happening, Knight shouldn't do very well because he hasn't seen this type of defense.
 

BamaMoon

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I'm not sure why people keep bringing up TK having a great game against Bama last time - that was a very different Bama defense and a far more talented OU offense.

He's a good QB, he'll get some yards, but he'll look very mortal on Saturday.
Agreed. He has actually not proven he can withstand the pressure of an Alabama defense as we simply did not pressure the QB back then like we do now.
I've got a very good friend who is a big Sooner fan. He remembers the 2013 Sugar Bowl very well. But he said in that game that almost all of TK's passes were hot routes that scorched Bama for all those yards.

So if our defense takes away his first reads and he has to stay in the pocket and go to second and third reads it's gonna be a much different game than in 2013.
 

JessN

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Same reason they talk about the "last time these storied programs met..." in 1966 or something else just as pointless. Bama players were in high school when Bama last played Knight.


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But Knight wasn't in HS the last time he played Alabama.

Much is getting made right now of the more aggressive posture of Alabama's pass rush this year but this is fundamentally the same defense Alabama has used since 2007. It changes here and there as the years go along to take advantage of a particular unit's strength, or a key player or two, but this is not Kirby Smart's defense nor is it Jeremy Pruitt's defense; it's Nick Saban's defense. It's a 3-4 over/under with the same basic substitution patterns that it's always had.

It also has the same softness over the top of the linebackers in the middle of the field. The fortunate thing for Alabama here is Texas A&M really has no tight end to drop into that area. If A&M's tight ends catch a single pass this game, it will be their first of the year.

I'm not expecting to shut down Knight. If you want to take an honest look at the numbers, he's just as effective running the ball as Hurts; they just each go about it in a different way. What I'm going to be interested to see is whether the center and guards on Texas A&M's offensive line are really any good. So far this unit has managed to keep Knight upright despite facing a pretty good edge rush against Auburn, a decent edge rush against Arkansas, an overachieving defense that has put up respectable numbers in light of a totally inept offense (South Carolina) that can't stay on the field, and the same Derek Barnett Alabama just faced a week ago. If Alabama has success, it will be where others have not. A&M hasn't played a bunch of terrible defenses and I'd hope we'd all be honest enough with ourselves to admit a large part of the Tennessee blowout was due to the Vols losing so many players due to injury, both as the A&M game went along and over the course of our own.

Defensively, A&M has a weak middle. That says run it until we gas ourselves, to me, but Lane Kiffin almost never does the obvious. We've profiled a weak LB corps, and Chavis puts so much on his LBs that historically he's only effective when he's had good ones capable of handling the responsibilities.

I could easily see Alabama scoring more than 34 but I can also see A&M scoring more than 28. Some of you guys are expecting a shutdown, but I'll remind everyone that Ole Miss put 43 on Alabama despite not having a playmaker anywhere at running back. The two best QBs Alabama has faced (Austin Allen and Chad Kelly) have each gone for 400+. Knight has already proven to us that he can do it against our defensive scheme. And it's not like Bama had crap players in 2013.
 

B1GTide

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But Knight wasn't in HS the last time he played Alabama.

Much is getting made right now of the more aggressive posture of Alabama's pass rush this year but this is fundamentally the same defense Alabama has used since 2007. It changes here and there as the years go along to take advantage of a particular unit's strength, or a key player or two, but this is not Kirby Smart's defense nor is it Jeremy Pruitt's defense; it's Nick Saban's defense. It's a 3-4 over/under with the same basic substitution patterns that it's always had.

It also has the same softness over the top of the linebackers in the middle of the field. The fortunate thing for Alabama here is Texas A&M really has no tight end to drop into that area. If A&M's tight ends catch a single pass this game, it will be their first of the year.

I'm not expecting to shut down Knight. If you want to take an honest look at the numbers, he's just as effective running the ball as Hurts; they just each go about it in a different way. What I'm going to be interested to see is whether the center and guards on Texas A&M's offensive line are really any good. So far this unit has managed to keep Knight upright despite facing a pretty good edge rush against Auburn, a decent edge rush against Arkansas, an overachieving defense that has put up respectable numbers in light of a totally inept offense (South Carolina) that can't stay on the field, and the same Derek Barnett Alabama just faced a week ago. If Alabama has success, it will be where others have not. A&M hasn't played a bunch of terrible defenses and I'd hope we'd all be honest enough with ourselves to admit a large part of the Tennessee blowout was due to the Vols losing so many players due to injury, both as the A&M game went along and over the course of our own.

Defensively, A&M has a weak middle. That says run it until we gas ourselves, to me, but Lane Kiffin almost never does the obvious. We've profiled a weak LB corps, and Chavis puts so much on his LBs that historically he's only effective when he's had good ones capable of handling the responsibilities.

I could easily see Alabama scoring more than 34 but I can also see A&M scoring more than 28. Some of you guys are expecting a shutdown, but I'll remind everyone that Ole Miss put 43 on Alabama despite not having a playmaker anywhere at running back. The two best QBs Alabama has faced (Austin Allen and Chad Kelly) have each gone for 400+. Knight has already proven to us that he can do it against our defensive scheme. And it's not like Bama had crap players in 2013.
This post reads like it was written by someone who fears a loss more than expects a win. Never fear losses. If they happen, they happen. But when your team is clearly better everywhere on the field, expect the win. Revel in the great feelings that come along with being a fan of a team like Alabama right now, not just one day a year (after the last game has been played), but every day.

This will all be over before you know it. Enjoy the ride.
 
But Knight wasn't in HS the last time he played Alabama.

Much is getting made right now of the more aggressive posture of Alabama's pass rush this year but this is fundamentally the same defense Alabama has used since 2007. It changes here and there as the years go along to take advantage of a particular unit's strength, or a key player or two, but this is not Kirby Smart's defense nor is it Jeremy Pruitt's defense; it's Nick Saban's defense. It's a 3-4 over/under with the same basic substitution patterns that it's always had.

It also has the same softness over the top of the linebackers in the middle of the field. The fortunate thing for Alabama here is Texas A&M really has no tight end to drop into that area. If A&M's tight ends catch a single pass this game, it will be their first of the year.

I'm not expecting to shut down Knight. If you want to take an honest look at the numbers, he's just as effective running the ball as Hurts; they just each go about it in a different way. What I'm going to be interested to see is whether the center and guards on Texas A&M's offensive line are really any good. So far this unit has managed to keep Knight upright despite facing a pretty good edge rush against Auburn, a decent edge rush against Arkansas, an overachieving defense that has put up respectable numbers in light of a totally inept offense (South Carolina) that can't stay on the field, and the same Derek Barnett Alabama just faced a week ago. If Alabama has success, it will be where others have not. A&M hasn't played a bunch of terrible defenses and I'd hope we'd all be honest enough with ourselves to admit a large part of the Tennessee blowout was due to the Vols losing so many players due to injury, both as the A&M game went along and over the course of our own.

Defensively, A&M has a weak middle. That says run it until we gas ourselves, to me, but Lane Kiffin almost never does the obvious. We've profiled a weak LB corps, and Chavis puts so much on his LBs that historically he's only effective when he's had good ones capable of handling the responsibilities.

I could easily see Alabama scoring more than 34 but I can also see A&M scoring more than 28. Some of you guys are expecting a shutdown, but I'll remind everyone that Ole Miss put 43 on Alabama despite not having a playmaker anywhere at running back. The two best QBs Alabama has faced (Austin Allen and Chad Kelly) have each gone for 400+. Knight has already proven to us that he can do it against our defensive scheme. And it's not like Bama had crap players in 2013.
This is totally what I think. It's the same scheme so Knight knows about it. One thing about it though, the players that run the defensive scheme are a lot faster than years past. I would say the LB corps overall are faster and especially the DBs and DL and that's the difference for me. It should be a great game. I don't think it'll be a blowout though but Bama wins.


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sabanball

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When the leading tackler on the opponents defense is the safety, the offense is more times than not a missed tackle away from a big play. You don't flip a switch on a bye week and correct that. Add fatigue to the mix and BAMA pulls away handily in the second half.
 
When the leading tackler on the opponents defense is the safety, the offense is more times than not a missed tackle away from a big play. You don't flip a switch on a bye week and correct that. Add fatigue to the mix and BAMA pulls away handily in the second half.
Nail on the head with that!


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MightyWingman

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I am a Former Student of Texas A&M and have been posting on this site for a few years. This is the only football site that I bother going to outside of my home page, Texags. I come here because you are rational and very informed fans that know football and have always treated me as if I was one of your own, which I greatly appreciate. I hope the game is close, but I do believe that you will blow our doors off (win by 3 touchdowns or so). Believe it or not, this is our "Super Bowl". We love playing Alabama, because we love playing the best. We will probably lose like I said earlier, but I hope we keep it close so we can make a New Years day bowl. Any A&M graduate would be proud to have a season with just one blemish, a loss to Alabama. You are the "Gold Standard" in college football. Having said that, I hope you all go out undefeated and win the National Championship again. You are the best in the nation and what A&M strives to be. Best of luck tomorrow, although I know you don't need it!

RTR & Gig 'Em!
 

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