How to Blow an Election

Bubbaloo

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Dec 8, 2015
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Bamaro --

I respect your opinions and the way you present them. Even though we don't always agree, I appreciate the perspective.

One suggestion: unless and until the Democratic Party stops dismissing 90% of the area and a majority of the population as "flyover land," they'll have a tough time gaining traction. It's like they're saying there's no reason you'd ever want to go there, no reason to talk to anybody there. No reason you'd want to do anything other than view it as an annoying impediment to the good stuff.

The Democratic Party has forgotten one of the greatest lines from one of its more adamant supporters: When John Mellencamp said, "The simple man pays the bills that count," he was talking about all those people in flyover land who do the hard, un-glamorous work that makes the fun stuff in the Democratic strongholds possible. Yet they genuinely look down their noses at those people.

The Republican Party has a lot of things wrong with it. But unless and until the Democrats stop dissing their historical base, they won't be able to exploit the GOP's shortcomings.
I endorse this post in its entirety
 

Bamaro

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Oct 19, 2001
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No, actually it wasn't since neither candidate is black.
Race doesn't necessarily have to be part of it. It has expanded over the years to explain the "hidden vote" where a person is somewhat hesitant/embarrassed to tell an interviewer who they support. For example someone being polled may answer a female differently than they would answer a male.
 
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rgw

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Sep 15, 2003
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Another problem is some of the projections used models predicated on how Obama performed and HRC ain't no Obama. People generally liked Barrack Obama.
 

Tide1986

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Race doesn't necessarily have to be part of it. It has expanded over the years to explain the "hidden vote" where a person is somewhat hesitant/embarrassed to tell an interviewer who they support. For example someone being polled may answer a female differently than they would answer a male.
I understand the point you're making. Nevertheless, I agree with Selma that Trump's election and the polling leading up to it are not a textbook example of the Bradley Effect. Referencing "spiral of silence" instead or simply loosening your reference to the Bradley Effect would have made for a more accurate statement in my opinion.

Anyway, I get your point and agree that it's very likely that some people lied about their intentions to pollsters.
 

BamaPokerplayer

All-American
Oct 10, 2004
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Two things:

1) The Bradley effect (like the racist Southern strategy as opposed to the real one) is a myth that never existed

2) I'll tell you what it says about people - they don't want to be harassed on social media.


Here's the thing - when you actually look at how Trump won, you have to realize that he pulled a BILL Clinton strategically; he was awful tactically, but let me explain as I'll write this up on my blog in a few days.

When Bill ran in 1992, he had two amazing advantages to go with his skill set: 1) the Democrats had been out of office for 12 years; and 2) Jesse Jackson didn't run. This gave Bill some freedom that never existed for Mondale or Dukakis - he could take both the black vote AND the 'desperate to be in power again' liberal vote for granted. And because he could, he got away with things that no other candidate in the 1980s could have at the national level with the Democrats like:

a) executing a lobotomized black man, Rickey Ray Rector, to show he favored the death penalty and appeal to the tough on crime Republicans

b) the Sister Souljah attack he pulled with Jesse sitting right there

c) timing his appearances before all black audiences to be AFTER the evening news so as not to be seen with them (this would be impossible nowadays with the Net)


d) proposing a middle class tax cut to be paid for by the wealthy (he never meant it, of course, but more on that in a moment when I mention the Trump Wall)

What Clinton basically did was took the desperate and black vote for granted and repeatedly stepped in to state after state and snagged what he could (no adultery jokes please). He appeased the radical feminists by promising to appoint pro-RvW SCOTUS nominees but then turned around and said abortion should be rare

Over and over he simply took a little here and a little there; hard to believe it but he won the veteran vote that year despite a draft dodging rep while running against a WW2 war hero and a guy who had paid the medical bills of many poor vets (Perot). And Clinton also reached out very publicly to the gay community back when that was not generally done save in some races in California - by promising they could be open in the military.


Trump - in essence - did the same thing. Again, I'm referring to his strategy, not his insane tactics. His Wall proposal went right into the teeth of the immigration issue, meaning he wasn't dancing around it like everyone else, and he did it EARLY. He went to Liberty University, knowing he would have serious trouble with the evangelical vote so he declared himself Christian, declared himself pro-life, and promised religious protection (picking Pence was to solidify this commitment). He never expected to get all of it, but he was adding from groups, which is exactly how practical politics used to be practiced. He leaped into the labor union states and ripped NAFTA and scratched their itch.

Now.....did he 'attack Mexicans, Muslims, etc?"

Yes, he did, but guess what? He wasn't expecting to get any Muslim votes anyway. He wasn't expecting to get very many black votes, but he appealed to them with a gut "what do you have to lose" appeal, and carried the largest GOP total since 1988. He also carried white women, if you can believe that. It might be considered sexist, but there seems to be some sort of appeal to women in the so-called alpha male. Ever notice how many absolute jerks who are pushy and fueled by testosterone date and (verbally) push around hot looking women? It's the old "every girl wants a bad boy who will be good to her while every boy wants a good girl who will be bad for him."

He took a little here and a little there.

Indeed, that part was just like Bill Clinton did. Sure Trump was lying about almost everything.

So was Bill Clinton if you recall after his middle class tax cut was dropped in favor of an increase, he abandoned gays in the military, he raised the gas tax after attacking Tsongas for that proposal in the primaries and pretty much left his promises elsewhere save for his obsession with abortion.

It's sacrilege to the Democrats, but strategically they did the same thing.
Wow, I knew Clinton was racist but did not know it was that bad, thanks for sharing.
 

seebell

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Mar 12, 2012
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Apropos for the day. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/trump-turkey-thanksgiving-231666

How Trump roasted Clinton in turkey country

Donald Trump won the nation's top turkey-producing areas by a landslide.

If your Thanksgiving turkey could vote, it probably would have cast its ballot for Donald Trump.
The Republican president-elect won the nation's top turkey-producing areas by a landslide, winning nearly all of the top 25 congressional districts ranked by the number of turkeys sold — and typically by large margins.
 
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