Question: Which Modern Alabama NC Defense is the Best??

B1GTide · Dec 1, 2016

RTR91 said:
I look at things a different way. Alabama's 2016 defense beats any previous Saban defense (I didn't count 2007, but we know it wasn't better) in holding opponents to 190.46 yards below their average. Comparatively, the 2011 defense held its opponents to 162.46 yards per game. Also, the 2016 defense thus far holds opponents 2.46 yards per play below their average while the 2011 defense held its opponents to 1.9 yards per play below their average.

That is awesome data. Do you have similar data around points per game allowed?

RTR91 · Dec 1, 2016

B1GTide said:
That is awesome data. Do you have similar data around points per game allowed?

Thought I did, but I can't find it. I'll see what I can do when I get back from lunch later.

TIDEnGA · Dec 1, 2016

Coach Saban said the only defense we need to worry about right now is Florida's. :wink:

JBama_in_PCOLA · Dec 1, 2016

crimsonaudio said:
Assuming this team finishes the way they've played through 12 games, 2016 is the best we've ever had. Want proof? Try this though exercise - drop the 2016 defense in to any season the other defenses excelled in and ask yourself if you think they'd be better or worse...

Ditto for the other defenses - would 2011 be as good against modern offenses? Nope, not in my opinion.

What makes the 2016 D special is that it's equally adept at stopping the old offensive styles the were prevalent until the last few years and still great at stopping the modern offenses that stress the defense far more than the older offenses did.

I want to agree with this now, but I rather agree with it in January. We are so close.

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tusks_n_raider · Dec 1, 2016

Throwing stats out the window and just using the eye test I will say this year's front 7 very well could be the best ever. I don't ever really remember so many Sacks, QB hurries, TFL's via gang style, and Intentional groundings. They just absolutely HARASS opposing QB's and RB's behind the LOS. It's pretty amazing to watch.

But I'm still crazy impressed by the 2011 secondary though. Giving up only 111 ypg.....man Barron, Lester, Milliner, and Dre were Bad BAD men back there. Milliner and Kirkpatrick pretty much blanketed WR's and weren't guilty very often of not playing the ball. Barron and Lester were always prowling around back there looking to de-cleat a WR IF he made a catch. Plus my goodness could Barron and Kirkpatrick come up and 'help' in run defense. They both could just BLAST RB's with bone crushing tackles. I LOVE that squad.

If you could take 2011's secondary plus 2016's front seven......whew.....good luck to anyone trying to score.

UntouchableCrew · Dec 1, 2016

If this years team wins the NC I think it's them, narrowly over 2011. I didn't see the 1992 team play though.

RTR91 · Dec 1, 2016

B1GTide said:
That is awesome data. Do you have similar data around points per game allowed?

crimsonaudio · Dec 1, 2016

Dang, by every real measure vs opponents!

RTR91 · Dec 1, 2016

crimsonaudio said:
Dang, by every real measure vs opponents!

And its dominance is probably the reason for it not leading in plays per game category. With the NOTs, they go right back on the field after a pick-six or fumble returned for a touchdown.

JBama_in_PCOLA · Dec 1, 2016

UntouchableCrew said:
If this years team wins the NC I think it's them, narrowly over 2011. I didn't see the 1992 team play though.

It was a sight to behold.

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JBama_in_PCOLA · Dec 1, 2016

I'm leaning towards a tie.

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gtgilbert · Dec 1, 2016

RTR91 said:

Great stuff. Do have one question just because i am a data geek. Does the data for the opponents average in the various categories include the data from the Alabama game or does it exclude it? Given the Alabama game would likely be an outlier for each team it would be better to exclude it from the average to see the real impact.

RTR91 · Dec 1, 2016

gtgilbert said:
Great stuff. Do have one question just because i am a data geek. Does the data for the opponents average in the various categories include the data from the Alabama game or does it exclude it? Given the Alabama game would likely be an outlier for each team it would be better to exclude it from the average to see the real impact.

Considered that, but I didn't do it. I went by each team's season average.

B1GTide · Dec 1, 2016

RTR91 said:
Considered that, but I didn't do it. I went by each team's season average.

If you remove the Alabama game data, those stats would look even more absurd. Thanks for putting this together. This defense is really special.

RTR91 · Dec 1, 2016

B1GTide said:
If you remove the Alabama game data, those stats would look even more absurd. Thanks for putting this together. This defense is really special.

Depending on work tomorrow, I'll give it a shot. Would give a better picture of how unreal this defense is.

TNElephantitis · Dec 1, 2016

JBama_in_PCOLA said:
It was a sight to behold.

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Literally words taken out of my mouth. I was 7 during the 1992 season and became obsessed with the Bama D. To this day, George Teague is my all-time favorite Bama player, even moreso when he cleaned T.O.'s clock for that star stunt in Dallas.

B1GTide · Dec 1, 2016

RTR91 said:
Depending on work tomorrow, I'll give it a shot. Would give a better picture of how unreal this defense is.

At a macro level it looks like it should move the number to about -23 ppg. Think about that - holding opponents to 23 points per game below their seasonal average.

To translate, if you played these playoff teams, how much might they score:

Washington - 22 points
Ohio State - 20 points
Michigan - 18 points
Clemson - 17 points
Penn State - 14 points
Colorado - 12 points
Wisconsin - 6 points

Florida - 1 point :biggrin:

Score 30 points and you are virtually guaranteed to win every game. You average 39.4 ppg.

JDCrimson · Dec 1, 2016

I think to truly compare the 1992, 2011, 2016 defenses, you would want to convert the below average metrics to a percent below average. This would adjust for changes in the game, prolific it of offenses, etc. Holding a team 150yds below their average now is likely not the same as in 1992. Do this and add a SOS multiple to it, you would have a pretty good argument for which team had the most efficient defense against the toughest competition which without doing the analysis I think would be the 2011 defense.

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B1GTide · Dec 1, 2016

JDCrimson said:
I think to truly compare the 1992, 2011, 2016 defenses, you would want to convert the below average metrics to a percent below average. This would adjust for changes in the game, prolific it of offenses, etc. Holding a team 150yds below their average now is likely not the same as in 1992. Do this and add a SOS multiple to it, you would have a pretty good argument for which team had the most efficient defense against the toughest competition which without doing the analysis I think would be the 2011 defense.

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Actually, that does the opposite of what you are trying to do. Offenses faced by Alabama were weaker in 2011 - a whole lot weaker. They averaged 90 ypg and 6 ppg less than the teams that Alabama has faced this year. That inflates the percentages.

So, comparing the two:

2011 defense holds teams to 52% of their ypg average and 31% of their ppg average while the 2016 team hold teams to 56% and 35% respectively, but the offenses are so much better that holding a team to 56% & 35% of its average today is much harder than 52% & 31% in 2011. The spread and HUNH changed the sport, and the level of difficulty defending so many different variations of each.

But you can look at those numbers and believe that the 2011 defense is better if you wish. Frankly, we can twist and turn these stats a hundred different ways to validate a conclusion that we are looking for.

JDCrimson · Dec 1, 2016

B1GTide said:
Actually, that does the opposite of what you are trying to do. Offenses faced by Alabama were weaker in 2011 - a whole lot weaker. They averaged 90 ypg and 6 ppg less than the teams that Alabama has faced this year. That inflates the percentages.

So, comparing the two:

2011 defense holds teams to 52% of their ypg average and 31% of their ppg average while the 2016 team hold teams to 56% and 35% respectively, but the offenses are so much better that holding a team to 56% & 35% of its average today is much harder than 52% & 31% in 2011. The spread and HUNH changed the sport, and the level of difficulty defending so many different variations of each.

But you can look at those numbers and believe that the 2011 defense is better if you wish. Frankly, we can twist and turn these stats a hundred different ways to validate a conclusion that we are looking for.

No I was just guessing. I appreciate you running the math. Wow this 2016 defense truly is special.

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Question: Which Modern Alabama NC Defense is the Best??

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