How Does Our '09 Commit List Compare to Others?

It's hard to compare lists when ours isn't even close to being done yet. Patience my friend, at the end of the day I believe this year's class will be comparable in talent to last year's, the only difference will likely be the numbers.

Well I do not o it for a living but I subscribe to both recruiting services and your right as of right now we are not in the top 10 this is also a mis-leading fact because we have numerous 5 star and too many 4 stars to count that are high on us and us on them.....

No matter how it pans out best we could do is maybe 5th no matter what because of the numbers we are allowed to sign this year.. I am prety certain it is 18 but we will sign 22 from what I have read..

Trust me usc will finish #1 this year because of the mere fact about half of the rivals and scout top 100 are on the west coast for some reason??

Not going to fluff it but if CNS can land the big fish that #1 ranking means nothing because quality this year could be at a premium for BAMA, meaning even if we only sign 22 of that 4-6 of them are projected 5 stars and almost all of the rest are 4 star or will be by high school FB season end. You add that to what we signed last year and the cupboard will be looking pretty stocked.

I would take a wild guess and this is if we can land say at least 4 of the 5 stars we NEED we will finish 5th~!~ If we land say 2-3 then we will fall around 8-9 ... Again it will depend on how many 5 stars we land since the numbers are tight~!~

Right now team rankings means nothing. Coaching nor recruiting services have even finished evaluating talent. Hell Rivals hasn't even come close to finishing rating players, including 3 of ours, and Scout isn't done either.


In the long run we have a chance to finish top 5 (possibly higher than 5 as signing 22-23 can get you pretty high, see last year with the likes of ND, Georgia, OSU and Florida). We could have as many as 5 or so 5 stars (probably 4), maybe in the mid teens in 4 stars aswell. Considering Georgia, Florida, LSU have scholly limitations as well its entirely possible we can still finish 1 or 2 in the SEC. But as of right now, I'd say we may be 4th in the conference, that will definitely change. But I wouldn't be surprised if we have a class that is as good or better than Notre Dames of last year

What you're asking for is terribly incomplete and bastardized view as big percentage of talent isn't even rated yet or fully evaluated yet, but in the overall view we may be around 10-13, in large due to the lack of numbers committed at the moment. With that in mind, you could say Auburn is ahead.

But the finish is all that matters quite frankly. It doesn't really matter who has the most commitments at this point in time because things inevitably change between now and signing day, and honestly it only matters who you were able to sign and even more importantly who you were able to sign and get qualified to wind up on your team. Commitments at this point in time mean little IMHO, they can get the ball rolling for your class (much like we saw for us last year) but at the end of the day commitments are only that.....commitments. JOMO.

Different teams have different strategies. For instance, Texas seems to have a "fill the spots ASAP" mentality, where Saban seems to like extra time to review. For example, at this time last year Alonzo Lawrence was a nobody in terms of scouting. Texas usually has their entire class wrapped up by August.
So, to answer your question, right now, our commitment list is behind some of the upper echelon schools, but we were last year too at this point. It's kind of like asking how the SEC standings are in mid-September... They are a certain way, but it's certain to change and means very little.

It really doesn't matter where we are now. The important thing is where we are on NSD and if CNS got the guys he wanted.

BEATtutorsee said:

But the finish is all that matters quite frankly. It doesn't really matter who has the most commitments at this point in time because things inevitably change between now and signing day, and honestly it only matters who you were able to sign and even more importantly who you were able to sign and get qualified to wind up on your team. Commitments at this point in time mean little IMHO, they can get the ball rolling for your class (much like we saw for us last year) but at the end of the day commitments are only that.....commitments. JOMO.

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True, all that really matters is what you can bring in during the fall, and NSD is obviously important. However, team rankings do hold some importance or at least give you some form of clarity over the course of the year prior to NSD. But at this point in time they mean jack this early in the process. Some teams nearly finish up early, some aren't even really started at this point. For instance Georgia may only have a class of 16 that they can bring in and they have 11 commits to this point, where a team like Va Tech who's in contention it seems most years only has 1 commit. By around September the schools like Texas that have nearly wrapped up has cooled off on recruiting and just waiting for a few of the top guys who are waiting to commit on NSD or after the season and the teams that are slow to the start begin to catch up in the numbers game. Right now things, are just too skewed to matter team ranking-wise

At this time last year, we had three commits who ended up with 5.8 (low 4-star) Rivals Ratings, four who ended up as 3-stars, and two that ended up as 2-stars.

Right now, we have two commits rated 6.0 (high 4-star), one rated 5.9 (medium 4-star), and three who have not yet been rated. While our quantity of commitments at this point is lower (6 this year vs 9 a year ago), the quality of the early commitments appears to be higher.

rtr1973 said:

At this time last year, we had three commits who ended up with 5.8 (low 4-star) Rivals Ratings, four who ended up as 3-stars, and two that ended up as 2-stars.

Right now, we have two commits rated 6.0 (high 4-star), one rated 5.9 (medium 4-star), and three who have not yet been rated. While our quantity of commitments at this point is lower (6 this year vs 9 a year ago), the quality of the early commitments appears to be higher.

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great point.

deliveryman35 said:

Let me reclarify what I am asking for--I am not asking for projections on how we finish, I am asking for honest appraisals of where you think we stand AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME to comparable schools--that to me is the best indicator of how we are doing right now in the college football arms race. If what i am looking at is correct, we have quite a few schools ahead of us...I know recruiting is not an exact science, but i am asking for educated opinions based on facts and not what we necessarily want to see through our crimson colored glasses. After all, recruiting is a 24/7, 365/day year ongoing process in these modern times...

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I don't think that using only our commitment list now produces an accurate indicator of how we are doing in recruiting. An accurate assessment of how we're doing at this point would take the following into account:

1. Commitments: these are a big plus, but a commitment isn't always a sure thing anymore.
2. Recruits that have us as their favorite: they're not a sure thing, but early in the process this is a good indicator of how you're doing.
3. Recruits that have you in their top N: when you are in the named list of top recruits, that means that you have recognition with top talent.
4. Recruits that you don't want and don't have you on their list: these matter not.
5. Recruits that you want and don't have you on their list: these are a minus, but some were never really a possibility anyway.
6. Recruits that you don't want or wrote off early and have committed elsewhere: not really a factor.
7. Recruits that you really wanted and have committed elsewhere: these are the biggest negatives in recruiting.

We have a few of #1, a lot of #2 and even more of #3. There's not too many in the #5 category and very few in the #7 category. I don't think that you can simply use the numbers of categories #1 and #6 and make any reasonable assessment with them. The important ones at this point are #1, #2, #3 and #7. After NSD, the only things that are important are #1 and #7.

Recruiting is like an election, yet less predictable. Recruiting is like having an election where new candidates can appear from basically nowhere in the middle of the election, existing candidates may have votes taken away from them and voters may change their minds several times during the election.

If you want an idea of how accurate is a prediction made before the finish, just remember: "Dewey Defeats Truman".

deliveryman35 said:

According to sources I've read, we're not even in the top 10. Texas, Ohio State, USC, and Georgia all have more verbals than we do. You experts, and guys that do this thing for a living, where do we stand at this moment in time in relation to other schools? Please, no spin or fluff--what do the hard facts tell you?....

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All I know is 1) Signing Day is more than 6 months away 2) We already have a handful of awesome recruits 3) We have 3-4 in-state 5 star kids that are all high on us 4) We had the #1 class last year 5) We have Nick Saban for crying out loud 5) We're going to be just fine and don't need to be worried anymore our level of talent compared to other schools (sort of like how auburn should be worrying about us).

deliveryman35 said:

Nice input and thoughts, guys, but what I was interested in hearing is some discussion on what I call the 'comp' numbers--how we are doing comparable to other schools at this moment in time. And if the numbers and recruits are not important like some of you are trying to say, then why is there so much discussion of '09 recruiting on this board? Recruiting has turned into a year round business that really never stops, and thus a snapshot of how we are doing at a specific time I think really can show you the overall health of your recruiting apparatus.

I am in no way trying to suggest that we are doing a bad job in recruiting, with Nick around I don't think that will, frankly, ever be a problem. We'll probably always be in the top 20 with him as our coach. But, I think we should be a little more competitive with the Georgias, Texases, and Ohio States of the world for all the blue chip talent out there than what we are showing on paper right now if we are going to get back to being a premiere powerhouse in two or three years.....but again, that's just this one man's opinion...

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delivery,
You are our resident "worrier". We love you for this and your passion for Alabama football. You are a vital member of this board.....you fill the role of #1 Worrier.
You make some good points (not in top 10, how are we versus other big schools, etc), but as has been pointed out it's early and.....it's early. With our limited numbers for '09, I will be happy with a top #15 class. As for competing with UGA, we just got 3 from their state and it's June! Don't worry delivery.......aw, nevermind.

deliveryman35 said:

Let me reclarify what I am asking for--I am not asking for projections on how we finish, I am asking for honest appraisals of where you think we stand AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME to comparable schools--that to me is the best indicator of how we are doing right now in the college football arms race. If what i am looking at is correct, we have quite a few schools ahead of us...I know recruiting is not an exact science, but i am asking for educated opinions based on facts and not what we necessarily want to see through our crimson colored glasses. After all, recruiting is a 24/7, 365/day year ongoing process in these modern times...

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My crystal clear designer recruiting glasses with titanium crimson colored frames says we are in very good shape as far as the 2009 recruiting class goes. The measurement of where Bama ranks right now in team recruiting does not indicate where Bama will be ranked on NSD. If you don't believe me look back at who Bama had committed last year and where Bama's commits were ranked at this same time of year. Then go up to the top of this board and read the Tide Fans NSD 2008 Alabama Signing Class thread to find out where they ranked when it was all said and done. It is not how you start that counts in recruiting, it is how you finish. CNS is all about finishing strong.

Well thats an easy answer if thats all you are asking, we are right where we want to be on the tip of many 5 stars tongues and as far as other schools leading or ahead right now they have better talent pool his year than we do not like last year where we were loaded. So to answer your question I guess you call it we are ahead of the barners, and every other team in the SEC but 2, mainly lswho & UGA... Both of these states are loaded this year and both have good reasons, one just won a NC and the other is being placed up there for a shot at it this year so......... To be expected the young guys are staying at home and we have some work to do... Are we that far behind either of them?? No very simply put lswho is almost done they have so many now and they are limited to how may they can take this year as well , same for uga... So we have some work to do but catching and passing them will be easily done ( easy for me all I gotta do is sit back and watch CNS bust his ... ) if we land the instate studs and 1-2 more.... HOpe that helps cause from what you are asking no one knows what will happen~!~

BAMA504 said:

I am prety certain it is 18 but we will sign 22 from what I have read..

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We only have 13 SR's and Knight is one of them . If he & at least 1 other SR falls to attrition , we won't reach 20 .

We will all know more bout' this in '09