Is there a Correlation Between New Clock Rules and Low Scoring?

[RollTide_HTTR]

This doesn't include week 4 but here is what the Athletic found through 3 weeks

Do college football’s new clock rules work? Complaints abound, but the data shows progress

Is Day right that possessions are down significantly? Are the rules as “crazy” as Kelly thought? The Athletic obtained data collected by the NCAA and TruMedia through Week 3 to examine the impact of the offseason rule changes. Here are the main takeaways:

• Through Week 3 in 2023, games involving at least one FBS team are averaging 176.20 plays. Through Week 3 in 2022, the same average was 182.32 plays per game.
• Through Week 3 in 2023, games involving at least one FBS team have averaged three hours and 16 minutes. Through Week 3 in 2022, those games averaged three hours and 22 minutes.
• Through Week 3 in 2023, FBS games averaged 53.9 total points per game. Through Week 3 in 2022, that number was 56.3.

In short, this means that the new rules have cut about six plays and six minutes from games. (There have also been 0.5 fewer flags per game). Teams are combining to score about two fewer points per game. According to TruMedia, FBS teams are averaging 12.0 possessions per game, down slightly from an average of 12.3 possessions through Week 3 in 2022.

Seems like the impact isn't THAT large at least at this point. It will probably take a full season or even 2 to know the full impact.

 

[BamaMoon]

This doesn't include week 4 but here is what the Athletic found through 3 weeks

Do college football’s new clock rules work? Complaints abound, but the data shows progress



Seems like the impact isn't THAT large at least at this point. It will probably take a full season or even 2 to know the full impact.

How many games are there a week? At least 65? I watch probably 5 games on Saturdays...sometimes less.

While these numbers don't seem to show a huge impact (6 plays on average less, which on average would be 3 less per team) the games I'm watching seem to be affected much more with possessions and scoring.

But I'll be shocked if at the end of the season this doesn't show up in there being less plays per game on average.

BTW, the length of the game isn't telling us anything because we knew the networks would not show less commercial if the games were shorter. We fear the opposite!

 

[CB4]

One thing I’ve notice is clock management late in a game. If trailing, your timeouts are even more valuable. Because you will get the additional benefit of clock stoppages with out of bounds and 1st downs under 2:00 minutes, more use of timeouts prior to the 2:00 minute mark in an attempt to preserve time prior to that.

 

[BamaMoon]

One thing I’ve notice is clock management late in a game. If trailing, your timeouts are even more valuable. Because you will get the additional benefit of clock stoppages with out of bounds and 1st downs under 2:00 minutes, more use of timeouts prior to the 2:00 minute mark in an attempt to preserve time prior to that.

Too bad you can't carry over TOs from the first half. Evil Genius Nick Saban would already be way ahead of the curve of manipulation!

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

How many games are there a week? At least 65? I watch probably 5 games on Saturdays...sometimes less.

While these numbers don't seem to show a huge impact (6 plays on average less, which on average would be 3 less per team) the games I'm watching seem to be affected much more with possessions and scoring.

But I'll be shocked if at the end of the season this doesn't show up in there being less plays per game on average.

BTW, the length of the game isn't telling us anything because we knew the networks would not show less commercial if the games were shorter. We fear the opposite!

You may be right. Idk. But the data, at least for the first 3 weeks, seems to say otherwise.

It's possible something else is impacting the games you watch. Maybe something like the amount of big name teams replacing their QBs with lesser options to this point. Or its possible you're right and the data will prove that out over the course of a season. Only time will tell.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

I can guarantee you there are already offensive minded coaches thinking "if the new clock rules seem to limited offensive series, how can I manipulate the system and get more series than others?"

I started a new thread about that, but I think that'll be the next evolution.

If the Offensive minded coaches aren't looking for an advantage,
they aren't doing their job.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

How many games are there a week? At least 65? I watch probably 5 games on Saturdays...sometimes less.

While these numbers don't seem to show a huge impact (6 plays on average less, which on average would be 3 less per team) the games I'm watching seem to be affected much more with possessions and scoring.

But I'll be shocked if at the end of the season this doesn't show up in there being less plays per game on average.

BTW, the length of the game isn't telling us anything because we knew the networks would not show less commercial if the games were shorter. We fear the opposite!

I've noticed something with teams such as Georgia and Michigan. Those are two teams most of us think of as teams that like to run the football. They've both played 4 games against weak competition so they've gone into those games as heavy favorites but neither Georgia nor Michigan have covered those big pointspreads in any of the games so far. Now it's possible those teams just aren't as good as the experts expected but the other possibility is that the new clock rules haven't given them enough time to score as many points.

 

[BamaMoon]

I've noticed something with teams such as Georgia and Michigan. Those are two teams most of us think of as teams that like to run the football. They've both played 4 games against weak competition so they've gone into those games as heavy favorites but neither Georgia nor Michigan have covered those big pointspreads in any of the games so far. Now it's possible those teams just aren't as good as the experts expected but the other possibility is that the new clock rules haven't given them enough time to score as many points.

Right, it seems to be a trend in the games I'm watching, but the stats aren't backing it up.

It must mean there are still a bunch of teams lighting up the scoreboard, but it's not making the highlights as much.

 

[BamaMoon]

One metric that would be interesting is to know how many times "on average" during a game does a play go out of bounds.

I'd just guess that number would be at least 10-15 times a game if not more.

With the new clock rules, outside of the last two minutes of the half, everytime that happens an additional 10-20 seconds will elapse that didn't previously. Let's say it happens only 10 times when the clock runs and it's only 10 seconds each time. That's 1:40 of game time that's erased from every game. And I think I may be being conservative with 10 plays and 10 seconds.

 

[Ledsteplin]

It's only Week 3 so there's probably not enough data to reach any conclusions.

There's also the wildcard of how coaches adjust. That's not likely to be known until after at least a couple seasons.

I don't think Coach Saban's shift to old school anti-tempo football is a coincidence.

I haven't heard Saban mention a shift to anti-tempo. He's only said he wants to run the ball with more success. But wants a balanced offense.

 

[CB4]

Too bad you can't carry over TOs from the first half. Evil Genius Nick Saban would already be way ahead of the curve of manipulation!

Too bad you can’t carry over TO’s from game to game. By my count Evil Genius Nick Saban has over 600 unused TO’s in his time at Alabama in the FIRST HALF alone.

 

[CB4]

I haven't heard Saban mention a shift to anti-tempo. He's only said he wants to run the ball with more success. But wants a balanced offense.

I think much more of the “balance” approach offense was predicated on what Saban felt would be the offensive strengths going into this year. Namely a running game with Jase, Roydell, Jam and freshman Richard Young and what most thought would be one of best O-lines in the country. Couple that with a QB situation that did shake out in the spring and needing to carry the competition into the fall didn’t help. I think CNS wouldn’t be against a faster pace on offense if he felt it would help his QB’s execute on offense and still maintain a goal of remaining relatively “balanced”.

The execution aspect on offense has been so hit or miss this year that trying to get things “right” has probably been the priority.

 

[BamaInBham]

This doesn't include week 4 but here is what the Athletic found through 3 weeks

Do college football’s new clock rules work? Complaints abound, but the data shows progress



Seems like the impact isn't THAT large at least at this point. It will probably take a full season or even 2 to know the full impact.

This data surprises me - I thought the reduction in number of plays would be at least double 6, more like triple. (Btw, the 2nd bullet point is irrelevant because the networks can and IMO, have added commercials.) If the stats are valid (it's a pity that we now lack full confidence in the media and institutional data), I like the new rules.

I always hated that one team could dominate another for 55 minutes then the losing team would go into "desperation mode", with the winning team's pass rushers tired and their coaches playing conservatively, and score a couple of TDs in the last 5 minutes and win. It is much more difficult now with the clock running with the ball in play following KOs and punts, OOB, penalties and first downs until the 2 min mark.

 

[We_are_Bama]

Wasn't there an experimental year with these types of clock rules around 2005/2006? They ended up not sticking with it, from what I can recall

 

[We_are_Bama]

Absolutely there is and thank God for it. This will hurt the Micky Mouse offensive teams. I love it. It feels more like real college football.

WHAT? You mean you won't miss this?

 

[teamplayer]

Iowa had 33 offensive snaps yesterday - in the entire game.

Of course, they could have had 100 and still wouldn't have scored, but...

It still blows my mind that Ferentz has lasted 25 years there. I mean, seriously? They have really accepted mediocrity.

 

[teamplayer]

Wish we had these clock rules in Knoxville last year

Why? The officials didn't follow the rules as they were written then, so I doubt they would have followed these either. Sorry, I do not usually blame officials for things, but that game was the worst I have ever seen. We made too many mistakes ourselves to complain about losing, but that was the worst.

 

[crimsonaudio]

It still blows my mind that Ferentz has lasted 25 years there. I mean, seriously? They have really accepted mediocrity.

Brother, I've been preaching this for a decade, at least, hahaha

 

[PA Tide Fan]

It still blows my mind that Ferentz has lasted 25 years there. I mean, seriously? They have really accepted mediocrity.

Fortunately for Ferentz he coaches in the weaker B1G division so if they beat Wisconsin they make the B1G championship game occasionally. I guess the Iowa fans and administrators have conceded they're never going to overtake Michigan or Ohio State. Like another corn state (Nebraska) they just don't have enough to offer there to attract elite recruits.

 

[TraskiTideFan]

Unless they make an adjustment to the play clock on the field to 25 or 30 seconds instead of the 40 standard it is now, if you have a 10 point lead going into the final 5 minutes of the game and the ball in hand, you can count it as game over if you have a decent running game at that point. It wont matter how many time outs you have. WELCOME to the JR NFL