2006 Previews: A look into the crystal ball [by JessN]

[BamaNation]

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A look into the crystal ball
Jess Nicholas
August 7, 2006

While predictions are often a shot in the dark, it is still fun to look ahead and try to predict the future. Here is our annual look at how the SEC might shape up in the coming year.

SEC Player of the Year: Chris Leak, QB, Florida
Leak still isn’t the best fit for Urban Meyer’s spread offense in Florida, but that isn’t going to stop him from putting up some big numbers. Meyer has already responded to Leak’s presence in the lineup by basically creating a fullback position in his offense that didn’t previously exist – evidence, at least, that Meyer is committed to utilizing Leak’s skill set. With Florida probably the most visible team in a mediocre SEC East, Leak will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities.
Runner-Up: Kenneth Darby, RB, Alabama. Alabama will probably lean more on the running game in 2006 to take the pressure off new QB John Parker Wilson and a rebuilt defense, and Darby is closing in on school records. Two plus two.

SEC Coach of the Year: Les Miles, LSU
LSU is expected to be strong, but the Tigers aren’t expected to take the SEC West crown or finish in the top 10. If LSU does either, Miles will get the credit. LSU’s supposed weakness is a defense without much experience, but the talent is there and LSU has an excellent chance to win 10 or more games in the regular season.
Runner-Up: Mark Richt, Georgia. The Bulldogs are rebuilding, but are also just a quarterback away from perhaps stealing the SEC East. If Georgia goes back to the SEC Championship Game, Richt will get a ton of props for his work.

SEC Coach with the hottest seat: Rich Brooks, Kentucky
The time is now for Brooks, who was surprisingly saved from a date with the executioner’s axe at the end of the 2005 season. Kentucky is healthier than they’ve been in years and has actually managed to build up some depth among the skill positions and on defense. Unfortunately, Kentucky is weak on both lines of scrimmage. A miracle still isn’t needed to save Brooks’ job; a 6-6 season would be considered a wild success and anything over four wins will get him invited back for another go-round in 2007. But four wins or fewer – and especially if Kentucky again finishes below Vanderbilt – means the likely end of Brooks in Lexington.
Runner-Up (tie): Houston Nutt, Arkansas; Philip Fulmer, Tennessee; Ed Orgeron, Ole Miss. No one stands out from this group but each of them has something to be worried about. Nutt almost got canned after 2005 and has turned to a popular high school coach to save him. A veteran team should be enough to do the job. Orgeron is either a mad genius or just mad; his teams play boring football but his recruiting prowess will probably buy him another year, at least. Fulmer may be the most vulnerable. His team remains out of control away from the field, and going 6-6 isn’t unthinkable. If Fulmer does go 6-6, Knoxville may impode.

Player most important to his respective team: Patrick Willis, Ole Miss
Without Willis, Ole Miss has a defense without a personality and without punch. With Willis, teams have to account for his presence on every snap, and quarterbacks are constantly looking for ways to avoid meeting him in the pocket. He plays hurt, plays with fire and is the straw that stirs the drink in the entire Rebel defensive scheme. If Willis goes down hurt, Ole Miss can go ahead and fold the tent.
Runner-Up: Brandon Cox, QB, Auburn. Blake Field may be Lou Gehrig to Cox’s Wally Pip, but Auburn fans would just as soon not have to find out. In Al Borges’ current incarnation of the Auburn offense, Cox’s accuracy makes everything go. Lose Cox, lose the scheme, and probably lose any chance of winning the SEC Championship.

SEC team most likely to fall short of expectations: Tennessee
This is particularly distressing for Tennessee once you realize the “expectations” are for an eight- or nine-win season at the most. The Volunteers have enough talent to win nine or even ten games, but it’s questionable whether they have the mindset needed to pull it off. This is a team that still doesn’t have a lot of trust between the coaching staff and the players – and the number of players gets fewer by the week as the result of a pesky little outfit called law enforcement. If Tennessee doesn’t grow up soon, the school will drop the hammer on Fulmer and staff.
Runner-Up: Florida. There is a lot of talent on the Gator defense and the wide receiver corps, but Florida can’t stay healthy, can’t find a running back with enough guts and hasn’t really found an offensive line so far. All three things must be found in the month of August, or the Gators will be back in a second-tier bowl.

SEC team most likely to surprise us all: South Carolina
At first glance, it’s hard to imagine the Gamecocks getting much out of a team that was weak on its offensive front to begin with, and now no longer has the services of Na’Shan Goddard or Jabari Levey. But South Carolina has perhaps the most intriguing group of receivers in the conference, the defense figures to be better than average at worst, and the Gamecocks have Steve Spurrier scheming on the sidelines, which counts for a lot in this league. The SEC East is totally up for grabs in 2006, and if you think it’s crazy for South Carolina to be considered a contender for the division title, just wait.
Runner-Up: Alabama. We picked Alabama as the team to surprise us last year, and they did. Now Alabama is again an under-the-radar kind of team. The question here is whether the new defense will quickly meld; if it does, Alabama figures to be no worse on offense and could again crack the 10-win barrier with a little luck.

Team most likely to make a run at a national championship: Auburn
There are only two teams in the SEC with really anything resembling a legitimate shot at a title this year, Auburn and LSU. Auburn is listed here because the Tigers have the running game, the quarterback, the offensive line and enough experience on defense to make some noise. What Auburn doesn’t have is a playmaker on defense in its front seven, and there are still questions about the safeties. But the Tigers have seemingly held a golden horseshoe in their teeth for a couple of years now, and with a favorable schedule and plenty of veterans in the trenches, the Tigers are the safe bet.
Runner-Up: LSU. LSU has the same questions on defense that Alabama has, but what LSU has that Alabama doesn’t is the core of a productive and balanced offense returning. Only a persistent quarterback controversy figures to threaten the Bayou Bengals’ chances.

SEC team most likely to fall completely apart: Arkansas
A quick look at the Arkansas depth chart reveals several familiar names, and Houston Nutt has been at Arkansas so long that he’s almost a dean of sorts within the SEC coaching hierarchy. Go more in-depth, however, and it becomes clear Arkansas has problems: Possible staff rifts, an overbearing athletic director/booster group, an injury to all-everything tailback Darren McFadden, a high school coach running a new offense with a bevy of unproven quarterbacks and an overrated defense that has the reputation for being soft up front. Many prognosticators are looking for an eight- or nine-win season from Arkansas; something much worse is far more likely.
Runner-Up: Ole Miss. The Rebels make a repeat appearance on this list. This year, injuries to either LB Patrick Willis or QB Brent Schaeffer would basically sink Ole Miss automatically. It will also be interesting to see if Ed Orgeron has learned from his bountiful collection of first-year mistakes.

Newcomer most likely to make a big impact: Micah Johnson, LB, Kentucky
Phrases like “automatic starter” describe this player who had far better options than Kentucky when he decided to cast his lot with his home university. The biggest question for Johnson would be whether he’d play defense or running back, where his 6’2”, 255-pound frame that runs somewhere in the high 4.4 to low 4.5 range would have been a load few teams would have wanted to deal with. But Johnson will go to defense, where Kentucky badly needs playmakers. Expect him to start from day one and be in contention for the entire bag of freshman awards given at year’s end.
Runner-Up: Andre Smith, OL, Alabama. Smith, like any true freshman offensive lineman, could use a redshirt year to get accustomed to college. But Smith steps onto campus as already the best tackle Alabama has.

SEC Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Leak, QB, Florida
He’s the front-runner for the conference player of the year, so it just makes sense.
Runner-Up: Kenneth Darby, RB, Alabama. Ditto.

SEC Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss
Willis not only has the ability, he’s also a media darling and is frankly the only proven front-line star on either Mississippi team. The Ole Miss coaches recognize his talent and will allow him to roam free and make plays from sideline to sideline.
Runner-Up: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee. Harrell takes over the mantra of best Volunteer defender from DT Jesse Mahelona, and he’ll see double teams on every snap. But Harrell is talented enough to cause problems for any offensive line that plays against him.

Most Underrated Player Award: Ramzee Robinson, CB, Alabama
Although Robinson ended up on the media’s preseason all-SEC first team, oftentimes players on that list end up there simply because of longevity. It is unlikely the writers – who awarded more votes to fellow cornerbacks David Irons of Auburn and Fred Bennett of South Carolina – truly appreciate what Robinson brings to Alabama not only in ability, but also in leadership. Robinson has developed into the kind of cornerback that other teams scheme away from purposefully. Alabama will quickly find out what it has in cornerbacks Eric Gray and Simeon Castille, because teams won’t challenge Robinson often. Those that do will do so at their own peril.
Runner-Up: Wesley Woodyard, LB, Kentucky. Kentucky’s defense as a whole has been so bad recently that it’s easy to overlook individual players that aren’t. Woodyard is a tough, smart linebacker with good speed and instincts. He’ll be a major key for Kentucky this year in the Wildcats’ push for a winning season.

Public Enemy “Don’t Believe the Hype” Award: Sam Olajubutu, LB, Arkansas
Yes, he’s a good player, and yes, you’ll find his name on the TideFans/NARCAS preseason all-SEC list. But he’s not the worldbeater some believe he is, and isn’t the best linebacker in coverage. He’s also undersized, even for a college linebacker, and not nearly consistent enough to be the frontline defensive wizard Arkansas needs. Given that the 2006 Razorback defense will be designed somewhat to revolve around Olajubutu, his weaknesses could get exposed very quickly.
Runner-Up: Kyle Tatum, OL, Alabama. Tatum is a veteran senior and a multi-year starter on the offensive line, which was good enough to land him on at least one preseason all-SEC list. He’s also getting pushed for his job by two players that coaches have moved to his position specifically to encourage better play. Tatum is simply not quick enough or consistent enough to handle top-flight defensive ends in the SEC.