GAME PREVIEW: Arkansas game offers a chance to make a statement {by JessN}

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GAME PREVIEW:
Arkansas game offers a chance to make a statement
September 20, 2006
by Jess Nicholas

Just how good Alabama is or isn’t will probably be answered definitively this week as the Crimson Tide takes its first road trip.

That the road trip will take Alabama to Fayetteville, Ark., is even more pertinent. Alabama has not had great luck inside the state of Arkansas, at least not consistently. The Crimson Tide won there in 2002 in Brodie Croyle’s first career start, largely the result of a backbreaking opening run from tailback Shaud Williams. By the time Arkansas knew what hit them, the game was largely in the bag.

The 2004 Crimson Tide was in a favorable position overall when another quarterback, current backup Marc Guillon, was making his first start in relief of Croyle, who tore an ACL the week prior in a blowout win over Western Carolina. But Guillon’s first start went quite roughly, and after a similar performance the following week at home against South Carolina, he was yanked in favor of Spencer Pennington for the remainder of the season.

The 2006 game will mark current starter John Parker Wilson’s first start on the road. It will also mark the first time in 2006 that Alabama is expected to operate from its base 4-3 defense, after three weeks of defending one-back spread attacks from Hawaii, Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Monroe.

Arkansas, as of Sunday night, was an early betting favorite – curious, since the Razorbacks have been blown out once already (by Southern California) and needed a great deal of luck to defeat Vanderbilt on the road. But with Alabama having to overcome hiccups of its own on its way to a couple of close victories, the Crimson Tide aren’t anyone’s sportsbook darlings at the moment.


OFFENSE

Alabama will continue to run its pro set attack, which this year has featured more passing than usual from a Shula-directed attack. The Crimson Tide is perfectly balanced at the moment – ranked 45th in passing offense and 45th in rushing offense in Division-IA. Arkansas responds with a hybrid pro set/I-formation/spread look that is a meeting of the minds of experimental offensive coordinator Gus Mulzahn and the more traditional head coach Houston Nutt. At first glance, this offense shows the potential for some explosion, but with the team still learning the offense’s nuances and now with a true freshman, Mitch Mustain, under center, Arkansas will do well to simply not lose the game on offense against Alabama.

QUARTERBACKS
Mitch Mustain was one of the most sought-after prep quarterbacks this recruiting season for a reason. He’s a big guy (6’3”, 210 pounds) with a strong arm and the unusual pedigree of having played in high school for the man who is currently his offensive coordinator, Gus Mulzahn. Mustain got his first start against Utah State and was largely transparent in that game, but he broke out a bit against Vanderbilt last week, throwing for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns on 13-of-20 passing. But Mustain’s inexperience still shows; he threw one interception and were it not for some favorable luck, could have thrown as many as three more in that game.

Alabama counters with John Parker Wilson, who has put together three solid games in a row and is ranked 33rd in the country in passing efficiency. Wilson doesn’t have Mustain’s arm, but he has more experience, is more mobile and has shown to be less prone to make mistakes. Depth is solid for both teams and is a push; Arkansas has Casey Dick available, who has proven to be a competent SEC quarterback, while Alabama has Marc Guillon, who led two touchdown drives against Louisiana-Monroe and has starting experience as well. Mustain is a great prospect, to be sure, but Wilson is ahead in the learning curve. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Something stalled Kenneth Darby in the season’s first two games; either a hip injury, poor OL blocking or both. Regardless, Darby made a nice recovery against ULM last week and looked much quicker in his cuts. But Arkansas boasts probably the conference’s best stable of running backs, highlighted by tailbacks Darren McFadden and Felix Jones and combo back Peyton Hillis. Hillis, curiously, has only 4 carries on the year so far but has caught 6 passes.

McFadden, who is still nursing a foot injury somewhat, is averaging more than 6 yards per carry and is as much a threat as ever. His size and strength, coupled with his speed, could give Alabama’s young secondary and linebacker corps some trouble on short yardage, as tackling mechanics haven’t been overwhelming lately. Jones’ presence guarantees that Arkansas won’t run into any depth problems, and he’s as good or better than most SEC starters, anyway. Michael Smith gives Arkansas an added weapon.

For Alabama, it’s still Darby’s show, but look for contributions from Jimmy Johns and perhaps Roy Upchurch as well. Johns has had a solid season so far as Darby’s backup, while Upchurch showed some promise in his first game action this week. The fullback duo of Le’Ron McClain and Tim Castille give Alabama the only fullback group that can rival Arkansas’ Hillis. Were it not for Darby’s early struggles, this match-up would be a virtual tie, but Arkansas has been more effective. Advantage: Arkansas

WIDE RECEIVERS
Put Arkansas’ top duo (Marcus Monk and Damian Williams) up against Alabama’s top duo (Keith Brown and D.J. Hall) and you’ve got virtually a tie. Introduce depth, however, and this becomes Alabama’s category. Monk, one of the SEC’s most overlooked receivers, has caught 12 passes for 224 yards (18.7 avg.) and 2 touchdowns already, while Williams, a true freshman, has collected 9 passes for 138 yards (15.3 avg.). Williams was good enough to relegate Cedric Washington to bench status; he’s caught just 1 pass for 7 yards.

Aside from another signee, London Crawford, who has caught 2 passes for 45 yards, Arkansas mainly relies on the running backs for receiving punch. Yet another signee, though, tight end/receiver Ben Cleveland, has been involved in the passing game as of late, catching a touchdown against Vanderbilt. Wes Murphy, who missed the Vanderbilt game due to a death in the family, is expected to return in this one. Mason Templeton will also play at tight end. Chris Baker provides depth at receiver but hasn’t caught a pass yet.

For Alabama, Brown has been virtually uncoverable so far, catching 19 passes for 313 yards (16.5 avg.) and 1 touchdown in 2006. D.J. Hall missed the opener with a suspension and has been nursing a sprained ankle ever since, but still managed to catch a key 43-yard touchdown against ULM and should be almost back to full strength this week. Matt Caddell offers Alabama an experienced third receiver, but he’s been corralled fairly effectively so far. Will Oakley and Nikita Stover figure to see more playing time in this game; they’ve combined for 5 catches in 2006.

The tight end duo of Travis McCall and Nick Walker are slowly turning into real weapons in this offense. McCall, in particular, offers a nice balance of receiving and blocking. Both teams have solid units but Alabama’s is a step ahead at the moment. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas’ offensive line was thought to be the class of the conference in the preseason but it hasn’t turned out that way. One of the concerns prior to the season was that the Razorback OL wouldn’t be able to quickly adjust from Nutt’s smashmouth style to Mulzahn’s more open attack, which needs nimble offensive linemen to run properly. Fears appear to be well-founded.

The one starter in the bunch for which quickness isn’t an issue is left tackle Tony Ugoh. Right tackle Zac Tubbs, however, can be beaten with a fast rush end. Stephen Parker and Robert Felton are the starting guards, while Jonathan Luigs mans the center position. So far, the only reserve to play has been tackle Nate Garner. Jeremy Harrell may see action in this game at either center or guard. Other than those two, the starters are basically on their own.

Alabama counters with a group that has proven to be capable pass blockers – Alabama is tied for 24th in the country in sacks allowed – but had problems establishing the run against Hawaii and Vanderbilt. Andre Smith continues to impress at left tackle, while center Antoine Caldwell has been predictably solid. Left guard Justin Britt has had a good season so far, but more consistency is needed both from right guard B.J. Stabler and the right tackle duo of Chris Capps and Kyle Tatum.

Depth belongs to Alabama, who not only has Tatum coming off the bench but a pair of talented guards (Marlon Davis, Mike Johnson) and tackle Cody Davis, who has plenty of experience. Reserve center Evan Cardwell got his first game action last week and looked good. Arkansas still holds a lead due to the experience of its starters – all but one is an upperclassman – but it’s not a big lead. Advantage: Arkansas

DEFENSE

Both teams base out of a 4-3 set, but the results have been wildly different for these two schools. Alabama is ranked 31st in total defense, including 18th against the run and 64th against the pass. Arkansas is ranked 84th in total defense, including 42nd against the pass and a staggering 103rd against the run. But Arkansas has stiffened a bit, at least, since the 50-14 opening loss at the hands of Southern Cal. Arkansas’ defense attacks more, while Alabama will sprinkle in a lot of 3-3-5 alignments and zone coverage schemes. Both defenses reflect the personalities of their defensive coordinators, Reggie Herring for Arkansas and Joe Kines for Alabama. Both teams are replacing key personnel who graduated in 2005.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas’ defensive line has had a reputation for playing below expectations now for years and 2006 doesn’t appear to be much different. The Hogs have had trouble stopping the run, and they’re not regarded as the most consistent pass rushers, either. Keith Jackson and Marcus Harrison give the Razorbacks a veteran presence up the middle, but Harrison needs to be more consistent.

The real issue, though, is at end, where Jamaal Anderson and the undersized Antwain Robinson are set to start. Anderson has never been a consistent producer, although he’s tough when he’s on. JUCO transfer Chris Wade is the top reserve off the bench at end, and he’ll be joined by sophomore Cord Gray. At tackle, Ernest Mitchell will get a lot of work, with signee Malcolm Sheppard also figuring in. Depth is a problem for Arkansas.

For Alabama, this will be the first game that tests Alabama’s inside depth. Jeremy Clark and Dominic Lee will start alongside one another at tackle after having split time at a hybrid noseguard position for the first three weeks. Clark is solid and steady, but Lee has shown flashes so far of finally breaking out. J.P. Adams will play a lot off the bench, but beyond that, it’s a mystery. Brandon Deaderick played against Hawaii but was absent the last two games. Lorenzo Washington and Byron Walton played against ULM; all three are redshirt freshmen.

Depth isn’t an issue at end, though; Wallace Gilberry is having a great season rushing the passer, while some combination of Chris Harris, Keith Saunders, Ezekial Knight and Bobby Greenwood will fill the other slot and offer relief to Gilberry. The difference between these units is that Alabama’s creates problems, while Arkansas’ is a problem unto itself. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Arkansas had questionable linebackers even before Freddie Fairchild was lost for the season with a knee injury. Now, it’s bordering on panic time. Sam Olajubutu will start at weakside linebacker and he’ll give Arkansas a scrappy, speedy player who never says quit. But Olajubutu’s worth in pass coverage is debatable at best. The other starters will likely be Desmond Sims in the middle – he’s a converted defensive end – and Weston Dacus at strongside. Sims lacks lateral mobility while Dacus is basically a useful spare part trying to play a starting role. Depth will be provided almost exclusively by signees; Adrian Davis and Ryan Powers outside and either Wendel Davis or sophomore Mark Bonner in the middle.

Alabama counters with Juwan Simpson and Terrence Jones on the outside and a combination of Matt Collins and Prince Hall in the middle. Jones had a breakthrough game against ULM. Simpson was suspended for that game but was the team’s leading tackler through the first two. Collins and Hall have traded good and bad games; last week was Collins’ time to shine. Both may be on the field together at some point in short-yardage situations. Marcel Stamps, Demarcus Waldrop and Zach Schreiber provide depth outside. Waldrop has the most experience of that trio but Stamps may have the most potential. It’s a tossup whether Simpson for Alabama or Olajubutu for Arkansas is the best player, but depth strongly favors the Crimson Tide. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Arkansas holds a clear edge on experience here, but this one is still too close to call. The best player on either team is far and away Alabama’s Ramzee Robinson, who’ll start at cornerback opposite Simeon Castille. Castille seems to alternate great games and questionable games; his play against ULM, particularly his tackling in the running game, was more than questionable. Lionel Mitchell, fresh off a suspension, returns as the third corner and the nickelback in the 3-3-5, along with Eric Gray and Marquis Johnson off the bench.

Where Alabama may be in trouble is at safety. Jeffrey Dukes finally seemed to put together a solid game in which he looked comfortable, and he enters this game the team’s leading solo tackler, with 11. The other safety position, though, is a question mark. Marcus Carter will start but he has yet to be a difference-maker. Look for Rashad Johnson to possibly push for that job this week. Depth could be a concern, as reserve Cory Reamer could be out for a while. That leaves the loser of the Carter-Johnson battle as the first player off the bench, and the only one with experience. Walk-on Bryan Kilpatrick and signees Sam Burnthall and Justin Woodall figure to be the next ones called.

For Arkansas, Chris Houston and Matterral Richardson will start at corner with Randy Kelly and Michael Grant the safties. This is an upperclassman group with a lot of experience. Darius Vinnett was supposed to be a starter somewhere, but an injury has kept him off the field. He might be ready for this game but Arkansas won’t be able to bet on production until they see whether Vinnett is healed. In the meantime, Jamar Love and John Johnson will be the backup cornerbacks while Dallas Washington and Matt Hewitt will be the primary backups at safety. This one is very close to begin with, but with Alabama’s youth and inexperience at safety, Arkansas probably has a slim edge. A return by Vinnett would be enough to push that edge even farther. Advantage: Arkansas

SPECIAL TEAMS
Arkansas’ placekicking is atrocious and can’t be counted on. The Razorbacks have yet to make a field goal attempt, and have yet to settle on a kicker between Stephen Arnold and Jeremy Davis. Davis has the early edge this week, as Arnold has also missed a PAT this year. Davis has the leg for longer field goals but his accuracy is in question. There’s no issue with the punting, however; Jacob Skinner is one of the SEC’s best. Punt returns have been solid, with fullback Peyton Hillis doing a solid job, but kickoff returns haven’t been so good.

Alabama counters with P.J. Fitzgerald at punter, who has been acceptable, and either Leigh Tiffin or Jamie Christensen at placekicker. Tiffin is 7-of-9 on field goal attempts including 6-of-7 from inside 40 yards. Kickoff returns are starting to get a little better, with Javier Arenas and probably D.J. Hall going back on kicks, but the punt return game could stand some improvement. These teams are actually quite equal here overall, but Alabama’s advantage in the placekicking department gives the Tide the edge. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL
Alabama leads in five categories, Arkansas in three. The defensive back category could easily go either way, as well. That means Alabama holds what should be a fairly clear advantage over Arkansas, but the Razorbacks remain the favorites – most likely because of Arkansas’ formidable home field advantage.

This game will tell a lot about Alabama, because the potential to run the football is there. Arkansas has serious problems at linebacker and on the corners of the defensive line. The Razorbacks haven’t tackled well. If Alabama came out and made a statement with its offense, the Crimson Tide could find itself shooting up the rankings.

On the other hand, Arkansas’ running game has been dangerously potent so far even if the overall results haven’t reflected it. And while QB Mitch Mustain isn’t quite ready for prime time, he is dangerous enough that Alabama could get burned by his arm if they don’t pay him the proper respect.

Alabama shouldn’t kill Arkansas in this game, but there’s no reason not to expect a victory. The Tide has won in hostile territory before, although it could be said last year’s most significant road victory came in Oxford against a poor Ole Miss team, and even then only by a last-second field goal. If not there, it was the whipping Alabama administered to South Carolina in Columbia – a better team by far than the Ole Miss team that took Alabama to the brink.

Alabama needs to make a statement early and claim this game before the Razorbacks develop the confidence to believe they can steal it. If both teams play to their potential, Alabama will come home happy.

Alabama 23
Arkansas 16