A glance at Alabama's coaching search {by JessN}

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A glance at Alabama's coaching search
By Jess Nicholas
November 26, 2006 10:38pm

What began the night as an exercise in speculation turned into reality just after midnight Nov. 27 when Mike Shula's career at Alabama came to an end.

On the morning of Nov. 27, confirmation finally came from UA administration.

There was no immediate word on Shula's successor. In this story, we’ll address the men who could be candidates for the job.

The first group, which we’ll call “Group A,” are the bigger names that are currently connected to this search. These do NOT represent the men we believe are most likely to be hired. The second group, “Group B, lists coaches not currently considered “top of the line” by the fans, but who may be on the front-end list for UA officials. Our predictions are at the end of this list.

GROUP A

Nick Saban, head coach, Miami Dolphins
Overview: Since the beginning of the rumors that Mike Shula may be on his way out of Tuscaloosa, Nick Saban’s name has been attached to this job. Saban has experience in the SEC as head coach of LSU, where he won a national championship. He is regarded as a tough, no-nonsense coach that would be virtually the antithesis of Shula in terms of dealing with players – he didn’t get the nickname “Coach Satan” by accident. The questions with Saban are money and whether Saban is really serious about leaving the NFL not long after getting to that level.
Positives: Proven winner, SEC recruiting experience, a national title, toughness, has a solid assistant staff at Miami and one or more might follow him to UA
Negatives: Might cost as much as $4 million/year to hire, never ran the table at LSU, regarded as tough to work for
Favored offense: Pro-set, power-I attack
Favored defense: Traditional, blitz/attack package from a 4-3 set
Players that would benefit: Saban’s offense would utilize many of the same personnel groupings and terminology as Shula’s offense, so the transition period would be minimal. QB John Parker Wilson, the entire stable of running backs and the receivers and tight ends would all find Saban’s offense to their liking.
Players that would suffer: Saban’s preferred defense demands more size that Joe Kines’ opposite-shoulder, inside-out technique. Many of the players recruited to the current scheme would have trouble fitting into Saban’s defensive philosophy.
Summary: Saban is one of the top names in this search, to be sure. But he wasn’t included on the Tuscaloosa News’ initial list. Offensively, Alabama would probably be much better in Saban’s first year. Defensively, Alabama will enter 2007 losing seven starters anyway, and with a scheme change on top of that, Saban’s first year would likely resemble Dennis Franchione’s 2001 season in more ways than one.

Bob Stoops, head coach, Oklahoma
Overview: Stoops has been mostly overlooked in this storyline, but his inclusion into the Tuscaloosa News’ search list was likely not by accident. There are questions whether the NCAA is about to look into the Rhett Bomar situation more closely in Norman, and Stoops has never seemed to let more than a year or two go without allowing his name to be connected to a coaching search. The big question is whether this is just another in a long line of fruitless rumors surrounding Stoops’ name, or if he’s really looking to move.
Positives: Proven winner, SEC recruiting experience, a national title, performed a quick turnaround at OU, noted for his ability to field superior assistant staffs, has an undefeated season
Negatives: May not even be on the market, possible NFL aspirations, questions over NCAA snooping into OU program
Favored offense: Spread/I-formation hybrid
Favored defense: 4-3, aggressive
Players that would benefit: Stoops has experimented more with the I-formation in recent years, but his teams maintain a spread look with three wideouts more often than not. With a good quarterback, OU has put balanced offenses on the field that make use of both the receivers and running backs. Defensively, OU has become a DB factory.
Players that would suffer: Anyone unwilling to change positions. Stoops’ first few OU teams were marked by linebackers who became wideouts. This year’s quarterback, Paul Thompson, was ticketed for wideout until Bomar was suspended. Also, the fullback position would be de-emphasized.
Summary: If questions about the NCAA and Stoops’ candidacy are answered, he would probably be the top candidate on this board. His combination of age and experience are unmatched even by Saban. But the operative question is whether he’s even an option.

Steve Spurrier, head coach, South Carolina
Overview: During any coaching search, one name seems to come out of nowhere – usually the result of rampant Internet speculation – and affix itself directly to the situation. That name this time seems to be Steve Spurrier. Spurrier’s age, combined with his contract at South Carolina and the fact that the move would make little sense from his own point of view, basically render any discussion of his candidacy unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely nonetheless.
Positives: Proven winner, national title, SEC recruiting experience, extreme name recognition, consistent success against his teams’ respective rivals, offensive innovator, excellent record in SEC games
Negatives: Age, uncertainty surrounding his future commitment to the game itself, never had an undefeated season
Favored offense: “Fun-’N-Gun,” a one-back spread variant
Favored defense: Zone blitz-heavy scheme that operates from both 3- and 4-man fronts
Players that would benefit: Defensively, many of Alabama’s current players would fit well into the defense Spurrier has used in his later years. Offensively, any quarterback would love the chance to work with Spurrier. Receivers D.J. Hall and Keith Brown might combine for a better season than even the one they enjoyed in 2006. The featured running back would get lots of face time.
Players that would suffer: The tight end hasn’t exactly been the hallmark of a Spurrier offense, and the fullback barely exists. Also, Spurrier has a reputation for rotating quarterbacks mercilessly.
Summary: If he’s a candidate, great. More likely, though, Spurrier is in his last head coaching job, unless he were to get an offer to return to Florida at some point.

Bob Petrino, head coach, Louisville
Overview: Of all the hot names from the up-and-coming list, Petrino may be the most intriguing because of what he’s done with his offense. As of Nov. 26, Louisville was ranked 15th in rushing offense and 7th in passing offense, for a total offense ranking of 2nd nationally. The Cardinals were also ranked 4th in scoring offense. That kind of balance is rarely seen – especially from a team that was missing its starting quarterback for two weeks. But Petrino, once Auburn’s offensive coordinator, has been part of a coaching search before – the one that led to “JetGate” for Auburn – so it remains to be seen how Alabama would approach this situation if/when the opportunity arises.
Positives: Tough coach, finally got John L. Smith’s talent motivated and focused, offensive genius, has SEC coaching and recruiting experience
Negatives: Has close ties to some Auburn braintrust and boosters, hasn’t recruited a full cycle yet as a head coach, may not be ready for this level of pressure
Favored offense: I-based attack that includes elements of the spread and the West Coast
Favored defense: 4-3 that places extreme importance on rushing the passer (Louisville leads the nation in sacks)
Players that would benefit: Anyone who touches the ball on offense. Petrino is famous for designing offenses that take full advantage of the talent he has on hand. Defensively, players with the ability to rush the passer and put pressure on opposing offenses would get the bulk of playing time. Louisville’s defenses haven’t been the best statistically, but they play aggressive football.
Players that would suffer: Alabama’s current defensive tackles probably aren’t what Petrino would prefer. Also, any offensive lineman that has problems with pass blocking and aggressive step techniques would most likely be out of the rotation.
Summary: There’s little question Petrino would succeed at a SEC school, but the question is whether he wants to leave the team that figures to be the barely-disputed leader of the Big East for several years to come to move to a cutthroat conference with eight or nine legitimate contenders year in and year out – for not much more money. Petrino’s former connections to the Auburn program must also be probed and weighed.

Rich Rodriguez, head coach, West Virginia
Overview: Rodriguez made his name originally as Tommy Bowden’s offensive coordinator at Tulane. Given the chance to run his own program, Rodriguez has turned West Virginia from a perennial 7- or 8-win outfit into a contender in the Big East. His spread offense puts a premium on speed and misdirection, and his teams define the word “aggressive.” But unlike 2003, when Rodriguez’s name was very much a part of the coaching search, he may be on the outside looking in in 2006.
Positives: Rodriguez has designed and implemented several different offenses over the years. He’s aggressive, has a good feel for playcalling and has succeeded in places that don’t have the talent advantages others do.
Negatives: Isn’t a big stickler for on-field discipline, defense could use some work, may have priced himself out of the 2003 search and his resume has only gotten better since
Favored offense: Split-back spread run from a no-huddle set. His recent offenses at WVU with Patrick White have been tilted more towards the run and away from the pass than his earlier ones.
Favored defense: 3-3-5, almost exactly like the current defense at UA.
Players that would benefit: Defensively, Alabama has already recruited for Rodriguez’s offense. Offensively, Jimmy Johns would thrive as a RB/QB combo player. RB Terry Grant seems perfectly suited for Rodriguez’s running game.
Players that would suffer: If Rodriguez keeps the current WVU offense at UA (although it seems that offense was designed with Patrick White specifically in mind), it’s unclear how John Parker Wilson, Greg McElroy or Jimmy Barnes would be affected. Current commitment Robert Marve could begin salivating, however. Also, WVU uses no I-based fullback (although the team does employ one in the split backs formation), and the tight ends are mostly for show.
Summary: Money may be the biggest issue here, as Rodriguez is known for being very expensive, and also difficult to work with from an employee standpoint when he perceives inaction on the part of his bosses in regards to program upgrades. Also, because of the discipline problem that erupted under Shula in 2006, Alabama may elect to go with a more hardline coach next time around.

GROUP B

Jim Grobe, head coach, Wake Forest
Overview: Grobe is considered one of the top coaches at the mid-major ranks, where his Wake Forest team will play in the ACC Championship Game. That feat alone will likely earn Grobe a mention on everyone’s coaching search list. Grobe, like Rodriguez, was involved in the 2003 coaching search, but at the time his resume was much more speculative than it is now. Grobe is considered similar to Rodriguez, Urban Meyer and Dennis Franchione in terms of coaching style and particularly his offense. He is known as being very strict in his discipline.
Positives: Disciplined, teaches a fairly revolutionary offensive line blocking technique, knows how to prepare for more talented teams, teams rarely beat themselves, good special teams, learned under Fisher DeBerry’s tutelage
Negatives: Offenses have always tilted heavily to the run, needs certain personnel to run it, OL technique may be on the border of being legal, questions of whether he could recruit at this level, hasn’t been in a pressure-cooker job like UA before
Favored offense: Split-back, no-huddle spread that tilts heavily towards the flex-option. He’s also run true triple-option attacks and I-formation attacks in the past.
Favored defense: 4-3 standard
Players that would benefit: As with Rich Rodriguez’s offense, Jimmy Johns and Terry Grant would benefit greatly. Unlike Rodriguez, Grobe utilizes his tight ends. Defensively, Grobe prefers speed over size, so it might not be quite as difficult to modify Alabama’s current personnel groupings.
Players that would suffer: Grobe’s preferred offense uses split backs with no fullback, so Alabama’s fullbacks would be situational players only. Wake also doesn’t use its receivers much except as compliments to the flex-option attack. Also, any player unwilling to play under strict discipline rules would be gone quickly.
Summary: Grobe has many admirers at UA and in coaching circles. The hump to get over is his lack of experience at big-time programs. Wake Forest, ACC and all, doesn’t count, and Grobe has spent so much energy building up programs of that level that his overall record becomes a poor indicator of his ability. The question with Grobe will be whether UA could sell a coach with a .500 record again to the fans, and ask them to have faith that he could get the job done long term.

Paul Johnson, head coach, Navy
Overview: If Grobe and Rodriguez are option-happy coaches, Paul Johnson is their idol. Johnson hasn’t only run the triple-option in his career, but it’s the offense that has garnered him the most success. His coaching career at Navy has been nothing short of miraculous, given that the service academies are no longer legitimate football powers. Almost as important, Johnson has experience coaching in the Southeast through his years at Georgia Southern. As with Grobe, however, selling the notion of a small-school coach to Alabama power brokers may prove difficult.
Positives: Demanding coach that requires discipline and won’t tolerate quitting, has utilized passing and running offenses at different times in his career, knows the importance of winning rivalry games, SE experience
Negatives: Given the choice, prefers the option, which hasn’t been run in the SEC since Bill Curry tried it at Kentucky and Vanderbilt used it under Woody Widenhofer; hasn’t recruited to a school in a major conference yet
Favored offense: Pure triple-option, although his Hawaii teams did pass the ball
Favored defense: 3-4 or 4-4 stack
Players that would benefit: Assuming Johnson strays a bit from his pure option attack, his offense would likely resemble Grobe’s or Rodriguez’s offense. If he stays with the option as the base, Alabama’s fullbacks, tight ends and running backs would find their mouths watering. Alabama’s OL would also likely undergo a major change, with quicker, run-blocking linemen getting a heavy look. Marlon Davis, Justin Moon and Evan Cardwell could see their playing time increase.
Players that would suffer: Navy’s leading receiver is a running back. That probably says it best.
Summary: Johnson’s success can’t be denied. He would also likely jump at the chance to coach at Alabama, and he would bring needed discipline, fire and track record to the head coaching position. The concerns about his offense are legitimate, however, and would certainly be something for him to address soon in his tenure.

Kirk Ferentz, head coach, Iowa
Overview: Ferentz was one of the hottest coaches in America a couple of years ago, before Iowa put together 7-5 and 6-6 seasons in which the Hawkeyes badly underachieved. But Ferentz’s name is still connected to this search, although the likelihood of Alabama hiring him may be rather low.
Positives: Rebuilt the Iowa program from several years in the doldrums, runs a productive offense
Negatives: Last two years were poor to say the least, defense has been uneven, offense let team down over a crucial stretch at the end of the year
Favored offense: Pro set that leans towards the pass
Favored defense: 4-3, neutral base
Players that would benefit: Ferentz’s offense is mostly Alabama’s shotgun and split-back packages tied to some use of the I-package. Iowa utilizes two or three tailbacks in key roles, and likes to spread the ball around between multiple receivers. The tight end gets substantial work. Defensively, Iowa leans more towards a passive look that would allow many of Alabama’s current players to slide over into a new system with relative ease.
Players that would suffer: Iowa basically ignores its fullback.
Summary: Ferentz is one bad year from landing on the hot seat himself at Iowa, so if Alabama is truly considering him in this search, UA’s advisors must know something the rest of us don’t. Ferentz’s early success, coupled with his recent struggles, call into question whether he’s making the right recruiting decisions at Iowa and/or whether his competition is beginning to figure out his tendencies. It would seem Ferentz is not one of the coaches at the center of this search.

Greg Schiano, head coach, Rutgers
Overview: Schiano was already being talked about as a potential replacement for Larry Coker at Miami after the 2005 season, before the Scarlet Knights ripped off a 10-1 season heading into a Dec. 2 matchup with West Virginia. Schiano hasn’t rebuilt Rutgers; Rutgers was never “built” to begin with. Schiano is regarded as much like Nick Saban, all the way down to serving as his own defensive coordinator (except unlike Saban, Schiano doesn’t have a DC in name only on staff). The questions with Schiano are whether he covets the Miami job, and whether his Northeast upbringings would make him an ill fit for deeply southern Alabama.
Positives: Recruits Florida religiously and knows the area, demands good defensive play, is solid fundamentally and not intimidated by big challenges, offense would easily adapt
Negatives: Is a New Jersey native and very “northern,” which brings into question how quickly he would adapt to Alabama; track record is essentially just two years of success long
Favored offense: Pro set
Favored defense: 4-3, very aggressive
Players that would benefit: Rutgers is actually having one of its worst offensive outputs in years, due to a new quarterback. With talent, Schiano’s offenses have been very balanced and productive. Since his offense runs from the pro set, Alabama’s personnel would not need much forced adaptation. Defensively, Schiano prefers aggressive, disciplined players. Most of Alabama’s LBs and DBs would fit well, although that’s not universal.
Players that would suffer: Simeon Castille and other players that like to free-range would need to rein in their play.
Summary: It’s hard to find fault in anything Schiano has done up to this point in his career. But like Petrino, his career as a head coach has so far been a short one. Unlike Petrino, Schiano’s contact with Alabama high school coaches and recruits has been minimal, although he has made it a point to target Florida. Schiano would likely be successful at Alabama, but the question becomes whether he’s the best fit.

Steve Kragthorpe, head coach, Tulsa
Overview: If Alabama decides to go after Kragthorpe, the Crimson Tide will likely be competing with Miami for his services. Kragthorpe was a 2003 Bryant Award finalist for coach of the year, and in all but one of his seasons at Tulsa has overseen winning seasons and success within the Golden Hurricane’s conference. He has NFL experience with the Buffalo Bills and favors wide-open offenses. But it’s unclear of Alabama’s true interest. On his current staff is former Alabama QB coach Charlie Stubbs, which could be a positive or a negative, depending on one’s own bias.
Positives: Aggressive, favors a downhill approach to the game, takes risks and is high-energy, defense is much like the one Alabama currently uses
Negatives: Tulsa was his first head coach job, and aside from success there, his career track is not much different than Shula’s. Also favors an offense many consider finesse.
Favored offense: One-back spread, with heavy portions of Ace package and four-wides
Favored defense: 3-3-5
Players that would benefit: Any receiver or tight end. Kragthorpe’s offenses spread the ball around a bunch, and his two-TE look is fairly revolutionary. Tulsa also rotates four backs through its one-back look, and all get plenty of touches. Tulsa is ranked in the top 30 in both rushing and passing offense. Defensively, Simeon Castille and rover/LB types would have a field day.
Players that would suffer: Tulsa uses no fullback. Also, any defensive tackle recruited for strictly a 4-3 look would be out of a job.
Summary: Kragthorpe will probably end up being one of those coaches who should have been looked at more closely, but wasn’t. His tenure as a head coach isn’t long enough to get noticed, and his age (41) may be too low for Alabama to consider, especially coming right out of the neophyte Shula years. It’s a shame, as Kragthorpe is one of the budding offensive geniuses in college football.

OTHER NAMES

The following are names that currently aren’t considered likely by any reputable source, but might yet become involved in a potential search if the field widens:

Brian Kelly, head coach, Central Michigan
Before arriving at CMU, Kelly was 118-35-2 at Grand Valley State and won two Division-II national championships there. Since taking over there, his wide-open offense has turned the Chippewas into a MAC contender and made them dangerous opponents for larger schools. Kelly’s prior experience and success makes him different from other young Division-IA coaches, and he should get a look at a larger school soon.

Chris Ault, head coach, Nevada
Ault has been a head coach for 22 years now, compiling a 177-77-1 record heading into 2006. He’s been at his alma mater for three different stints (including serving as athletic director for a time) dating back to before the school’s Division-IA days. He may be content to finish his career at a school with no pressure, but if he’d be open to changing jobs, Alabama would be wise to interview him. He’s developed his own offense at Nevada – a spread/shotgun hybrid called “The Pistol” – and field competitive teams at a school with no recruiting pull.

Bill Cubit, head coach, Western Michigan
A former quarterbacks coach at Florida, Cubit’s resume isn’t long, but his work at Western Michigan is starting to make people sit up and take notice. Cubit’s best attribute may be his ability to identify and hire the best assistants – his WMU staff looks like it belongs in the ACC or SEC already. Like Ault and Kelly, Cubit’s offense would get noticed.

Art Briles, head coach, Houston
Briles, a Houston alum, was a longtime Texas high school coach until Mike Leach at Texas Tech hired him as an assistant. He coached running backs for Texas Tech, then moved back to his alma mater as head coach. In his time at Houston, Briles has turned around a moribund program and turned it into a legitimate contender in Conference USA. His offense draws a lot of attention, and if he cares to entertain offers away from his alma mater this offseason, he’ll likely have his pick of several.

Chan Gailey, head coach, Georgia Tech
Gailey’s name has already come up as a supposed “sure thing” inclusion into the A-list, mostly because of an old relationship with some of UA’s insiders. However, it is not believed that Gailey is now nor will be a part of the search.

Mike Leach, head coach, Texas Tech
Leach’s four-wide, all-the-time offense gets knocked as being potentially ineffective in the SEC, but Leach does not overlook the necessity of a strong defense. It’s unclear how much respect he has in Tuscaloosa, but he’s certainly a step up from the other four-wide offense types currently coaching college football.

Jim Leavitt, head coach, South Florida
Leavitt was almost offered the Alabama job in 2003 before Mike Price was hired, but the deal fell through for a myriad of reasons. Could he be involved in another Alabama-related coaching search again? At this time, it would seem unlikely, but if the process drags on it could become a possibility. Miami will also be contacting Leavitt.

PREDICTIONS

Even though the Tuscaloosa News did not include Nick Saban on its original list of candidates, Saban would have to be considered in the mix. Although many believe Spurrier is the true target for Alabama, there has been no credible information received here to suggest that Spurrier will be Alabama’s man.

The next question becomes who will be the next candidate in line should Saban turn Alabama down. To answer this, we’ll need to delve into semi-wild speculation. If Bob Stoops turns out to be just wishful thinking, the conversation will most likely turn to a trio of coaches: Bob Petrino, Jim Grobe and Paul Johnson.

It is unlikely the search would move beyond that level of names. Even if Bob Petrino is approached and declines interest, it is unlikely that either Grobe or Johnson would turn down an offer from a program of Alabama’s stature. The only question with those two men is whether one of them will be hired for the opening at North Carolina State, where both are candidates. Rich Rodriguez should be considered a darkhorse candidate, but probably not one of the higher-priority names.

All other names in this article should be considered outside the scope of the original search.

We will update this story with more information as it becomes available.