PREVIEW: Rating the units [by JessN]

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Rating the units
By Jess Nicholas
August 6, 2007

Any ratings system – save perhaps for the mysterious computers used in the BCS statistical conglomerate – is subjective. But anything that can be done to lessen the impact of personal opinion or bias is generally regarded as a good thing.

Via a process that culminated three years ago, TideFans/NARCAS expanded its rating system beyond the simple six-class system employed in the past. In all 12 SEC previews, you’ll notice eight unit divisions – quarterbacks (QB), running backs (RB), wide receivers and tight ends (WR), offensive line (OL), defensive line (DL), linebackers (LB), defensive backs (DB) and kickers, punters, return men and coverage units (ST, for special teams).

Prior to 2004, ratings were doled out to each team during the individual previews. The only way to compare teams was for the reader to manually swap back and forth between two separate reports. In the individual reports, ratings are assigned as follows: Excellent (Ex), Very Good (Vg), Average (Av), Fair (Fr) and Poor (Pr). It also bears mentioning that teams can have a great starter at a particular position, but if depth is poor behind that starter, the ranking for the unit as a whole can be affected. These are unit rankings, not rankings of individuals.

In this first comparison box, you’ll see the teams compared against each other within their respective divisions. The team with the highest score is ranked first. At the end of the report, we’ll summarize.



Summary
In this first graphic, a numerical value is assigned – six points for Excellent, five for Very Good and so forth. Here’s each team’s point total after the first comparison:




In the SEC West, there are virtually no surprises at all. The numbers yield virtually the same results as our subjective predictions; the only difference is Ole Miss and Mississippi State, which are both projected at 4-7, 1-7 in the conference, are swapped in the final order (Mississippi State wins that battle in the subjective predictions via a head-to-head win over Ole Miss).

But in the SEC East, it’s a shocker. Tennessee comes up the best team in the division, for one, but Georgia – picked by TideFans/NARCAS and several other prognosticators to not only win the SEC East, but also contend for the conference hardware – comes in a solid fifth. Florida is just behind Tennessee, but Kentucky is only two points out of first and one point out of second. Furthermore, South Carolina holds a clear lead over Georgia. And there’s even a mild surprise concerning Vanderbilt; contrary to the opinion of many Vanderbilt fans, who see the 2007 edition of the Commodores being a culmination of several years of Bobby Johnson’s hard work, Vandy doesn’t fare too well in head-to-head competition with its SEC brethren.

Moving on to the second graph, we compare all 12 SEC teams against one another. It’s not as simple as shuffling two sets of six figures. Compared against the entire league, a team could be both fourth-best in its division and fourth-best across the entire league when taken as a whole. Again, a summary follows this report.




Here’s the point breakdown:



The first number that should jump out is LSU’s overall ranking of 80. A perfect score is 96. A quick scan of previous years shows few teams breaking the 80-point mark.

The second number that jumps out is Kentucky coming in fourth with 59 points, ahead of division-mates Georgia and South Carolina, both of which are picked to finish above the Wildcats in the subjective rankings. It’s also worth noting that once the results are compared across divisions, Florida and Tennessee swap places, the result of some of Tennessee’s “bad” categories being exceptionally so (ex.: Tennessee has the lowest-rated receiver corps in the conference, which may be a first in receiver-rich Tennessee Vol history).

Two years ago, the system picked Tennessee to face off against LSU in the championship game; LSU made it but Tennessee missed the postseason altogether. Last year, the system picked got half the matchup, nearly missed on LSU in the West, and the correct winner.

As in previous years, we’ll treat this system like a fun experiment, and see where it takes us.