SEC previews and predictions – Week 8

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SEC Previews and Predictions – Week 8
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Oct. 15, 2007

Last week’s record: 5-1 (83.3%)
Season record: 48-9 (84.2%)

The Predictions Dept. kept its weekly streak of one-loss picks alive by failing to anticipate the Kentucky upset of LSU. As Week 8 approaches, let’s hope the streak isn’t kept alive this week by overestimating Alabama’s ability to upset Tennessee. Elsewhere in the conference, Kentucky, now on the big stage, faces Florida, while Auburn and LSU tie up in a major battle within the SEC West.

FLORIDA at KENTUCKY
The Gators were off last week, but the Wildcats sure weren’t. Kentucky staged a monumental upset of LSU in Lexington to get payback for the 2002 “Bluegrass Miracle” and to announce to the rest of the country that the Wildcats were for real. Unfortunately, teams coming off such performances – particularly in overtime, and especially when facing a team that has had a week off – don’t tend to repeat the effort the following week. Florida isn’t as physical as LSU, but the Gators’ offense exploits weaknesses in opponents’ ability to play assignment football, and Kentucky’s defense isn’t strong in that regard. Kentucky needs to win to stay in the SEC East hunt; Florida needs a win to get back in it. Look for the Wildcats to fall a little flat here and let the Gators sneak back into the picture.
Florida 35
Kentucky 27

TENNESSEE at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!

VANDERBILT at SOUTH CAROLINA
Had the Commodores won last week against Georgia, this game – yes, THIS game – would have been for control of the SEC East pending a Florida victory over Kentucky. As it is, the Commodores are trying to pick up the pieces after giving one away to Georgia. Going in for the winning score, the Commodores fumbled, and Georgia marched for the winning field goal. South Carolina, meanwhile, built a big lead against North Carolina only to see the Tarheels come roaring back at the end. The Gamecocks escaped, but a similar performance this week could cost them the top spot in the SEC East. For now, the road to Atlanta runs through Columbia. If both South Carolina and Kentucky win out, USC goes to the championship game. Don’t look for Steve Spurrier’s team to blow it here.
South Carolina 27
Vanderbilt 13

ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI
This is apropos: Arkansas, which lost in the last seconds to Auburn, faces Ole Miss, which lost in the final seconds to Alabama. The two also-rans can get together in Oxford and commiserate. Arkansas’ offense went stagnant against the Tigers last week, while Ole Miss continued to make critical mistakes at crucial times to give away a fourth-quarter lead to the Crimson Tide. These are two teams on the brink, and the coaches for each team are facing pressure to get the job done quickly or perhaps be relieved of their duties. Ole Miss showed some improvement against Alabama on offense, while Arkansas looked better on defense against Auburn. Who wins? Perhaps the better answer is, who cares?
Arkansas 23
Ole Miss 20

AUBURN at LOUISIANA STATE
This is the game of the week in the SEC, because the loser here probably knocks themselves out of the conference championship race. Auburn has more to lose than LSU; lose here, and Auburn would have to hope two of the following three teams – Alabama, Ole Miss and Arkansas – could beat LSU. If LSU loses, the Bayou Bengals could still play for a three-way tie with Auburn and Alabama, or hope that Alabama and, say, Georgia takes out Auburn – a scenario that is quite possible. LSU is coming off a collapse against Kentucky that figures to go down as one of the biggest upsets in recent conference history, while Auburn managed to win 9-7 over an Arkansas team that is average at best. With both teams coming off poor showings, bet on the home team (particularly since LSU has a clear talent advantage) but look for play to be sloppy, and the margin closer than expected.
LSU 23
Auburn 17

MISSISSIPPI STATE at WEST VIRGINIA
West Virginia has laid some eggs in the past, but the Mountaineers would have to not only burn their couches but also lie asleep on them in the process if they were to lose this game to Mississippi State. The Mountaineers had an off-week Oct. 13, while Mississippi State tried valiantly but ultimately failed to beat Tennessee. Now, the Bulldogs have a long flight to play a team that would love to top a SEC program and put the results on its resume. Look for West Virginia to do just that.
West Virginia 40
Mississippi St. 21

IDLE: Georgia