Tennessee preview: Saban gets first taste of UA-UT rivalry

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Tennessee preview: Saban gets first taste of UA-UT rivalry
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Oct. 15, 2007

Nick Saban has been Alabama’s coach now for about 10 months, give or take a couple of weeks. He’s probably been asked a million times if he’s been asked once whether Alabama will beat Auburn.

But at Alabama, there is a second question that the masses want to know: Is Alabama going to beat Tennessee? The storied Tide-Volunteer rivalry goes back as long as the rivalry with cross-state Auburn, and many of those who were aware of Alabama football in the days before the rivalry turned sour remember it as a gentleman’s game, fought between what have historically been the Southeastern Conference’s two top teams.

Unfortunately for many, actions in recent years – arguably, almost exclusively on the part of Tennessee head coach Phil Fulmer and some of his school’s more ardent fans – have rendered this once-respectable rivalry a game of hatred. Fulmer’s involvement in Alabama’s 2001 NCAA investigation left many Alabama supporters wondering if the rivalry would ever return to the way it was before.

It might, but at the present time neither Alabama nor Tennessee is concerned with the pleasantries that come with mutual admiration. What’s important this week is winning the game, and not much else. The loser of this one may not be completely out of the running in its respective division, but that team will probably be able to hear the door creaking shut.

Making things even more interesting is the fact both teams are playing a screwball brand of football, with each hanging on by threads week to week. Alabama has actually looked more consistent than Tennessee; the Volunteers cleaned Georgia’s clock, 35-14, but were badly blown out by both California and Florida. Alabama’s two losses have been much closer.

Both teams report good offenses, but suspect defenses. Tennessee has more total talent, but Alabama has the home-field advantage. It could be one for the ages.

OFFENSE

Both teams offer multiple looks, and both teams have based more out of an Ace package (two tight ends) this season than anything else. Alabama uses the I-formation more than Tennessee. When Tennessee does utilize an I-look, the fullback is usually one of the tight ends. Both teams also present spread looks from time to time. Tennessee’s offense, however, is built to do different things.

While Alabama will work to establish the run and will mix its passing game with both short routes and downfield passing, Tennessee’s offense is predicated on shorter timing routes, quick quarterback drops and screens. Tennessee does this to cover weaknesses in the offensive line group. Tennessee will use the pass to set up the run, and will work frequently from a no-huddle look. Quarterback play has been good for the Vols this year, making the process easier.

QUARTERBACKS
Alabama’s John Parker Wilson played perhaps his best game of the season against Ole Miss. While he threw for no touchdowns and did have a pass intercepted – albeit on a batted ball – he managed the game well, was efficient, checked in an out of plays and wasn’t rattled despite the onslaught from Ole Miss DE Greg Hardy. But Wilson has had just two strong games (Ole Miss, Arkansas) during the 2007 season. He has been up-and-down from week to week, and while he is more than capable when he is playing well, the problem has been that he’s not been at that level enough. Still, Tennessee’s defense doesn’t compare with Georgia’s or Florida State’s, and those are the teams that gave Wilson the most problems.

For Tennessee, Erik Ainge is having a solid senior season. Ainge is 147-of-221 (66.5%) for 1,554 yards, 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The raw passing numbers are actually comparable to Alabama’s, although Tennessee has reached those totals in one fewer game. The backup situation favors Tennessee slightly, but mostly on reputation alone. Neither the Volunteers’ Jonathan Crompton nor Alabama’s Greg McElroy have much time under center. Crompton is thought to be the better prospect. Ainge has a history of having difficulty in big games, but he’s always seemed to show up for Alabama. He’s also yet to have a truly bad game in 2007. Advantage: Tennessee

RUNNING BACKS
Both teams employ a stable of running backs. Tennessee uses four compared to Alabama’s three. For the Volunteers, Arian Foster has had a solid season after being written off by many fans prior to 2007. Foster is 6’1”, 225 and has carried the ball 97 times for 534 yards (5.5 avg.) and 7 touchdowns. He combines power with speed and has improved his ball security. Backing him is a trio of talented backs, any one of which could easily start for most SEC teams: LaMarcus Coker (34 carries, 140 yards, 4.1 avg., 1 TD), Montario Hardesty (41 carries, 184 yards, 4.5 avg., 2 TD) and Lennon Creer (22 carries, 101 yards, 4.6 avg., 0 TD). Foster, Coker and Hardesty have plenty of SEC experience.

Alabama counters with Terry Grant (101 carries, 593 yards, 5.9 avg., 6 TD), Glen Coffee (90 carries, 413 yards, 4.6 avg., 4 TD) and Roy Upchurch (22 carries, 146 yards, 6.6 avg., 1 TD). Alabama lacks the power back that Tennessee has. Coffee is the closest to filling that role, but he fumbled the ball 3 times against Ole Miss – fortunately losing it only once – and those kind of mistakes tend to get Nick Saban’s attention. It’s not out of the realm of thought to imagine Jimmy Johns (13 carries, 35 yards, 2.7 avg., 1 TD) getting some short-yardage work if Coffee continues to put the ball on the grass, but it would be far more likely at this point to see Upchurch get more of the work. Grant has had a good season, but struggles when he's overused.

Tennessee counts just one true fullback on the roster, Ryan Hill, and he’s only played in one game. When the Vols need to use a fullback in the set, they’ll move tight ends Chris Brown, Jeff Cottam or Luke Stocker to the position temporarily.

Alabama counters with its own twin-tight-end sets, but also has a pure fullback in Baron Huber, who has proved to be an exceptional blocker in limited work. Alabama has more flexibility and more homerun ability, but Tennessee has better depth and Foster gives them more balance as a starter. Advantage: Tennessee

WIDE RECEIVERS
Although Tennessee has thrown for more yards this season, it is questionable whether any of the Volunteer receivers would crack the top shelf of Alabama’s wide receiver rotation. The Vols’ best bet is Lucas Taylor, who leads the team with 41 catches for 618 yards (15.1 avg.) and 3 touchdowns. Part of the reason for Taylor’s success has been the system designed by the Tennessee coaches. Taylor does not have the size (6’0”, 185) to go heads-up with most defensive backs. Still, Taylor, who is coming off a career day against Mississippi State, has been successful for Tennessee. The Volunteers’ supporting cast, highlighted by Austin Rogers (28 catches, 340 yards, 12.1 avg., 1 TD) and Josh Biscoe (28 catches, 207 yards, 7.4 avg., 1 TD) has been good – but thin. Beyond that trio, the wide receiver with the next greatest number of catches is Denarious Moore, with 4. In between are a couple of running backs and tight end Chris Brown (21 catches, 167 yards, 8.0 avg., 5 TD) who is especially dangerous around the goal line, but doesn’t offer much blocking help. Jeff Cottam, the most frequently used of the other tight ends, is the blocking specialist.

Alabama counters with the best pure wideout Tennessee has likely seen this year, D.J. Hall (37 catches, 579 yards, 15.6 avg., 3 TD) and a solid supporting group that includes Mike McCoy, Matt Caddell, Keith Brown, Nikita Stover, Will Oakley and Earl Alexander. Tight ends Nick Walker and Travis McCall are heavily involved in both the passing and running games. Alabama’s group has more talent as a whole and is more apt, as a group, to be able to break a big play. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Tennessee knew it would have problems going into the season, when the loss of Arron Sears to the NFL forced the Vols to scramble the positions. Injuries haven’t helped; guard Anthony Parker played against Mississippi State despite suffering from knee trouble. If Parker is healthy for the Alabama, he’ll start along with Chris Scott. Eric Young, who is recovering from a concussion, is expected to start at left tackle opposite Ramon Foster. Foster and Scott are both flexible enough to play each other’s positions. Josh McNeil will start at center. Tennessee plays a lot of people along the line, bringing Jacques McClendon and Vladimir Richard off the bench at guard, Michael Frogg at center and Steven Jones and Ramone Johnson at tackle.

Alabama counters with a different philosophy, and more consistent results. Alabama stays mostly with a single group, and for most of the year that group was Marlon Davis and Justin Britt at guard, Antoine Caldwell at center and Mike Johnson and Andre Smith at tackle. But family illnesses sidelined Davis two weeks ago and Britt against Ole Miss, putting Evan Cardwell into the game at center and moving Caldwell to whatever guard spot was open each week. Britt’s status for Tennessee is uncertain; if he’s out, expect Caldwell to again start at left guard and Cardwell to play center. The starting group will play most of the snaps, although Alabama has brought B.J. Stabler and Chris Capps into the game the last two weeks in place of Johnson at right tackle, who has struggled with pass blocking lately. David Ross will be the backup for both guard slots and center unless Britt is back.

Tennessee’s offensive scheme has covered the holes along its line nicely; the Vols lead the nation in fewest sacks allowed. Tennessee is deeper, but man for man, Alabama’s starting group has better players. Give a close call to the Tide. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Tennessee operates from its familiar 4-3 look, but these have not been good times for the Volunteers. The defensive line is the most average of any that Phil Fulmer has coached during his time in Knoxville. The Volunteers don’t get many sacks (96th nationally, 11th in the SEC) and numbers all around are down: 66th against the run, 64th against the pass (70th in pass efficiency defense, worst in the league), 85th in scoring defense (worst in the league) and 65th in total defense. Alabama counters with its flexible 3-4 base, which includes so many different fronts that it’s a waste of space to list them all. Alabama’s pass rush numbers improved after a strong showing against Ole Miss, but the Tide still is not controlling the line of scrimmage or proving consistent enough to handle the league’s best teams.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Ends Xavier Mitchell, Antonio Reynolds and Robert Ayers are all good players, but none of them stand out. The closest is Ayers, who has 6.5 tackles for loss, including 3 sacks, in 2007. Mitchell is a plugger, an effort player who grew up somewhat an Alabama fan, and his motor runs constantly. But his build allows him to get pushed around by bigger offensive linemen. Reynolds and Ayers are more traditional ends. Wes Brown adds depth. Inside, Demonte’ Bolden and Dan Williams get the start, with J.T. Mapu and Walter Fisher providing depth. Bolden and Mapu have a sack each – and that represents all the sacks from Tennessee’s defensive tackles.

Alabama counters with a group that has been maligned often in 2007, but is slowly getting better. Lorenzo Washington has so far held off Brian Motley at nose tackle despite Motley, who won the job in the spring, coming back from an ankle injury. Brandon Deaderick and Bobby Greenwood split the tackle/end combo position, while Wallace Gilberry, Alabama’s best defensive lineman, holds down the rush end spot.

When Alabama goes to a four-man front, Jack linebacker Keith Saunders will sometimes be the one to play with his hand down. Against Ole Miss, Saunders left the field in many four-man fronts, replaced by a defensive back while OLB Ezekial Knight moved down. Behind Deaderick, Gilberry and Greenwood are Luther Davis, Milton Talbert and Nick Gentry. Davis is the most likely to see playing time. Josh Chapman adds depth at the nose. With Deaderick’s rise at tackle, and Motley pushing Washington at nose, Alabama’s pass rush looks a bit more active, but it could still be much better than it is. The Tide, however, has controlled the running game up front much better than has Tennessee. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
When Tennessee makes plays close in, they typically get their start at the linebacker level. Rico McCoy and Jerod Mayo are the team’s top two tacklers, and Ryan Karl ranks No. 5 on that list. The trio is active in pass defense – they have to be; Mayo, at 6’2”, 230, is the biggest player by far among the bunch – and help contain the run well enough. But they have no sacks. Among the second group – Adam Myers-White, Ellix Wilson and Dorian Davis – Wilson has the lone sack for the group.

Alabama counters with a rather thin group. The Tide is down to using just three inside linebackers, Prince Hall, Rolando McClain and Darren Mustin, and two outside linebackers, Keith Saunders and Ezekial Knight. Hall and Mustin will probably be the starters inside for this one, given Tennessee’s preference for short-zone passing. Brandon Fanney will probably see some time in relief of Saunders, but his snaps have been limited. Alabama probably has the advantage in the pass rush, and in one of the inside positions, but Tennessee holds the advantage in depth and especially experience. With Alabama an injury away from disaster, the Vols are in a better position. Advantage: Tennessee

DEFENSIVE BACKS
It’s hard to say who’s struggling more at this point. Alabama’s last three games have exposed a glaring weakness at the off-corner position opposite Kareem Jackson when Alabama is in nickel. It wouldn’t be a huge problem, except Alabama plays a five-DB look at least half the time. When Alabama is in its four-DB base, Jackson and Simeon Castille man the corner positions while Marcus Carter and Rashad Johnson hold down safety. In that look, three of the four positions are solid, with Carter’s safety position the only one questionable. But when Alabama goes five-wide, Castille falls back to nickel safety and either Lionel Mitchell or Marquis Johnson comes in at corner. That position has yielded several big plays in recent weeks. Alabama has been hesitant to try any other players there, although senior Eric Gray has a lot of experience and Tyrone King Jr. played a key role down the stretch against Houston. Tremayne Coger is also available. At safety, Ali Sharrief was limited by injury against Ole Miss; if he can’t go, King will probably play the dime along with Javier Arenas.

For Tennessee, sophomore Marsalous Johnson is the most experienced corner available; he’ll start along with a true freshman, Eric Berry. But Berry is lighting up opponents; he’s Tennessee’s third-leading tackler, and he has an interception return for a touchdown on his resume. Behind them are a junior college transfer, DeAngelo Willingham, and several other true freshmen, led by Dennis Rogan. The safeties are very experienced, and both are seniors, Jarod Parrish and Jonathan Hefney. Parrish has not put up the kind of tackle numbers expected, however. Antonio Wardlow, Nevin McKenzie and Ricardo Kemp provide depth.

Statistically, Alabama is better, but Tennessee has more experience at safety and better depth all around. It’s a close call, but Alabama gets it based on better play at the primary corner position and Rashad Johnson’s ball-hawking skills. This one is razor-close, though. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
No one has anything remotely like Javier Arenas in the SEC, an athletic, fearless kick return man who is a threat to score whenever he has the ball. Having said that, while Alabama is tops in the conference in punt returns, the Tide is struggling in kick returns. Jonathan Lowe was sidelined against Ole Miss with an ankle injury, and may not be back this week. Against Ole Miss, first D.J. Hall, then Matt Caddell, took turns trying to replace Lowe. Tennessee has the opposite problem; LeMarcus Coker gives Tennessee a fine kickoff return man, but the Volunteers don’t return punts very well (89th nationally). But the real advantage comes in the kickers. Placekicker Daniel Lincoln is 12-of-13 on field goal tries, including 4-for-4 beyond 40 yards. The Vols still haven’t run out of Colquitts; Britton Colquitt is punting at a 43.4-yard clip. But Tennessee doesn’t cover punts very well, so Colquitt’s net is good for just 58th nationally.

Alabama counters with P.J. Fitzgerald at punter and Leigh Tiffin at placekicker. Tiffin regressed somewhat against Ole Miss; his kickoffs were very good, but he was 2-for-3 on field goals and missed a 35-yarder twice (once before and after an Ole Miss timeout). Alabama figures to make some noise in the return game, but Tennessee might as well, and the kicking competition goes strongly to UT. Advantage: Tennessee

OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, Tennessee in four. Alabama has home-field advantage. Should the Crimson Tide be favored?

Not so fast. Tennessee’s advantage at quarterback is sizable, as is the advantage in special teams. Alabama’s advantages at offensive line, defensive line and in the secondary are precariously slim. If Tennessee gets the benefit of the doubt in those three close comparisons, this turns into a clear, 7-1 Tennessee advantage.

An Alabama win here would still be considered an upset – and that’s what is predicted. Tennessee has not stepped up in every big game this year, while Alabama has consistently shown a fourth-quarter resolve. Tennessee and its opponents are tied 79-79 in scoring in the second half this year, but the Vols have been outscored 48-31 in the fourth quarter. Alabama, meanwhile, leads 66-62 in the fourth quarter.

This will be Nick Saban’s first Tennessee game as the head of the Crimson Tide, but it’s not his first game against Tennessee. At LSU, Saban was 2-1 against the Volunteers during some of their more fruitful seasons. He knows how to prepare for this game, and Alabama seems to have a better mindset than does Tennessee at this point.

This game figures to feature combat between the offenses more so than the defenses. It would seem that Tennessee would have the advantage there, given the presence of Ainge, but again, Alabama’s last-minute heroics in 2007 give the Tide the experience to play in that situation whereas the Volunteers seem to lack it.

Alabama will have to play above itself to win here, and a loss is possible, but look for Tennessee to be Saban’s first true upset victim as Alabama’s head coach.


Alabama 30
Tennessee 27