News Article: SEC preview and predictions – Week 10

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SEC preview and predictions – Week 10
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Oct. 26, 2008

Last week’s record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Season record: 48-17 (73.9%)

Once again, an upset special comes back to bite the Predictions Dept. where it hurts: Duke upset Vanderbilt in a game many saw coming but few had the guts to pick. This week, the Commodores will rest, before continuing their slide out of the bowl picture by getting creamed by Florida next week. The Gators’ assignment Saturday is the undisputed top game of the conference slate, as they take on Georgia for what will likely be the game to decide the SEC East race.

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Arguably the premier game of the entire 2008 SEC season, Florida and Georgia will tee it up in Jacksonville and someone is coming out of it with a second loss on the year. Whoever gets it will likely be shocked, as neither team probably could have fathomed anything more than one loss, at worst, heading into the year. Florida is coming off a 63-5 demolition of Kentucky, while Georgia put away with relative ease a talented LSU team. This game will come down to defensive discipline in the face of excellent quarterback play for both teams. And in that regard, Florida has been more consistent, especially as of late. Georgia’s defensive ends struggle with run containment from time to time and Florida’s spread-option attack will eat that up. This one looked like a Georgia win in the preseason; no longer. Look for the Gators to come out on top in this one.
Florida 30
Georgia 27

ARKANSAS STATE at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!


KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Kentucky has two good chances left to qualify for a bowl bid. This is one; the Vanderbilt game Nov. 15 is the other. If Kentucky is indeed a bowl team, the Wildcats surely didn’t show it last week, coming out on the wrong end of a cannon-fodder loss to Florida. But Mississippi State didn’t look much better, dilly-dallying around with MTSU before finally pulling out a victory. The key here is the Kentucky injury situation. The Wildcats are the better team when healthy but are far more banged up than is Mississippi State. For that reason, look for the Bulldogs to pull out a win and keep their slim bowl hopes alive.
Mississippi St. 20
Kentucky 14


TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA
Tennessee goes from facing the conference’s best defense in Alabama to facing arguably its second-best overall defense in South Carolina. The Gamecocks aren’t as strong as Alabama against the run, but have better total defense numbers and are the SEC’s top team against the pass. South Carolina also had an off-week last week, while Tennessee watched a parade of medical carts haul off several key players. There is little life left in the Vols, but South Carolina is looking at bowl eligibility with a win here and could possibly even sneak up to second in the SEC East race. It would be hard to call this one an upset if the Gamecocks won, given Tennessee’s struggles, but the Volunteers still have more talent. It will come down to whether South Carolina can limit mistakes from the quarterback position, and whether Tennessee decides to want to win again.
South Carolina 20
Tennessee 17

TULSA at ARKANSAS
Don’t look now, but Tulsa has a pretty good team. The Golden Hurricane entered Sunday night’s game against UCF ranked, which means this non-conference “breather” game Arkansas scheduled is going to turn out to be anything but. Tulsa went into the UCF averaging 624.7 yards per game of offense, and Arkansas’ defense has been its weak point. Tulsa’s problem has been its defense: It can’t stop the run or the pass, and has held an opponent under 20 points just once this year. This is the upset special of the week, and this time we’ll pick it, even though Arkansas, by all rights should beat a Conference USA team every time it plays one.
Tulsa 37
Arkansas 34

AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI
The wheels are in danger of being completely off the wagon for Auburn at this point, as the defense joined the offense last week in self-destructing. Auburn has its postseason hopes backed squarely against the wall to boot; after this game, there is UT-Martin, and then the Tigers will likely close with losses against Georgia and Alabama. If Auburn should happen to lose this game as well, it is highly unlikely for the Tigers to get to six wins, and thus Auburn could stay home for the holidays. Ole Miss has more chances – the Rebels get Louisiana-Monroe next week and then close with Mississippi State – but Houston Nutt would love to get a win under his belt here and not have to worry about winning the Egg Bowl to get to the postseason. Ole Miss is still playing with passion, but Auburn is not. It would probably be an upset at this juncture if Auburn found a way to win.
Ole Miss 21
Auburn 17

TULANE at LOUISIANA STATE
Tulane has had an up-and-down season this year, mostly down. The Green Wave tends to play its best against good opposition, so if that holds up LSU is in for a game. Tulane, however, is coming off a 42-17 loss to Rice, so it remains to be seen just how much of a game the Green Wave can give LSU. LSU would like to work out some frustrations from its loss to Georgia before welcoming Alabama to Baton Rouge next week. Unless Tulane is about to cash in a bigger miracle than the one on 34th Street, the Bayou Bengals will do just that.
LSU 50
Tulane 7

IDLE: Vanderbilt