News Article: Arkansas State preview: Alabama out for Sun Belt revenge

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Arkansas State preview: Alabama out for Sun Belt revenge
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Oct. 27, 2008


Alabama didn’t play Arkansas State in 2007, but the Red Wolves – better known as the Indians prior to a NCAA-mandated nickname change – won’t be sneaking up on Alabama, much as they would like to.

Arkansas State is a Sun Belt Conference school, and one of its chief competitors is Louisiana-Monroe. Alabama, of course, lost one of the most shocking games in the program’s history in 2007 to ULM, 21-14. Although the Warhawks aren’t making a return appearance this week, Arkansas State can expect Alabama to use the Red Wolves as a surrogate for its anger.

Alabama is 8-0 for the first time in years, ranked No. 2 in all polls and staring at a BCS title game appearance if it can run through the rest of its schedule without incident. Don’t look for the Tide to get derailed here.


OFFENSE

Arkansas State and Alabama both run balanced attacks. Arkansas State is Alabama Lite on offense, with a stable of multiple running backs and a quarterback that manages the game well. Both teams have been effective. Alabama has been stronger on the ground, but Arkansas State has better balance. While Alabama works from a pro-inspired multiple offense, look for the Red Wolves to use a spread-option look against the Crimson Tide.

QUARTERBACKS
Corey Leonard, a junior, is not in his first year as a starter. Like Alabama’s John Parker Wilson, Leonard had a decent campaign in 2007, but threw too many interceptions (15) and too few touchdowns (16). This year, Leonard is on pace to come in at around the same total yardage (2,235 in 2007; he has 1,474 so far in 2008). The biggest improvement he has made is in his TD-to-INT ratio. He has already thrown for 11 touchdowns in 2008, and has limited his interceptions to 3. Completion percentage could improve, however; Leonard is just 97-of-182 (53.3%) in that department. But that’s still good for an efficiency rating of 140.0, which leads the Sun Belt.

Alabama counters with John Parker Wilson, who has put together a quietly effective 2008 campaign. He’s currently 109-of-176 (61.9%) for 1,260 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The major difference between the two is that Leonard likes to run a lot. He has carried 78 times for 349 yards (4.5 avg.) and 2 touchdowns, wonderful numbers for a Division-IA quarterback and good for third-best among all Red Wolf runners. Take away his sack yardage, and Leonard is averaging a whopping 8.6 yards per carry. Alabama will have to account for him. The depth situation favors Alabama; Leonard’s backup, Travis Hewitt, has attempted just one pass in 2008. This one is close because of Leonard’s running ability but Wilson’s game management should give him the edge. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Arkansas State fields a potent one-two punch at running back. Reggie Arnold holds a slim lead over Derek Lawson for the team lead. Arnold has carried 99 times for 555 yards (5.6 avg) and 4 touchdowns on the year; Lawson is 68-for-553 (8.1 avg.) and 3 touchdowns. Both players have good size (around 5’10”, 220 for both). Quarterback Casey Leonard carries the ball enough to merit being in this discussion as well. Aside from wideouts on end-arounds, backup quarterbacks and way-down-the-bench players, that’s mostly it for ASU. Arkansas State is one of the few teams with spread-option elements to its offense that starts a fullback, and the Red Wolves will use two of them, Jeff Blake and Jermaine Robertson. Robertson has no running stats yet this year, but Blake has carried 5 times for 40 yards (8.0 avg.) and 1 TD.

Alabama counters with starter Glen Coffee, who is well on his way to a 1,000-yard year, and backups Mark Ingram and Roy Upchurch. Upchurch, who has been mostly a third-down back in 2008, had what could be considered a breakout performance against Tennessee and now figures to be in the discussion of Alabama’s top options at the position. Terry Grant offers depth and, if his hard running at the end of the Tennessee game is any indication, may merit more playing time in the future. Upchurch, along with Baron Huber and H-backs Brad Smelley and Travis McCall, will split the fullback duties. Again, this category is pretty close, and the Red Wolves are better than most small teams here. But Alabama has better depth, homerun ability and has done it against better competition. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Four Red Wolf players stand out above the others, but ASU does a good job of spreading the ball around. The most dangerous weapon might just be tight end David Johnson, an experienced senior who is built much like Alabama’s Travis McCall. He has caught 16 passes for 260 yards (16.3 avg.) and a whopping 5 touchdowns. He’s also a good blocker. At wideout, Brandon Thompkins, Jahbari McLennan and Jarriel Norman all have double-digit catches, and Thompkins and McLennan are both over the 200-yard mark in total yardage. But the three have just 2 touchdown receptions between them. Depth is good, with Trevor Gillott, Kevin Jones and Anthony Robinson all active pass-catchers. Gillott is the backup tight end, but is a liability as a blocker. If there’s a running theme to the Red Wolf wideouts, it’s a lack of size. No wideout is taller than 5’10”.

Alabama counters with superb freshman Julio Jones (28 catches, 444 yards, 15.9 avg., 4 TD) across from Mike McCoy at wideout, with a tight end grouping of Nick Walker, Travis McCall and the suddenly-on-the-scene Brad Smelley. Depth is strongly in Alabama’s favor, with Will Oakley, Marquis Maze, Nikita Stover, B.J. Scott and Earl Alexander at wideout and Preston Dial and Chris Underwood also available at tight end. ASU’s group is good for its conference, and Johnson could probably play tight end for several SEC schools. But Alabama has a clear talent edge here. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas State has gotten good results, particularly in run blocking, from a unit that returned only one starter in 2008. Left tackle Matt Mandich, who was that returning starter, is likely to be all-conference for a second year in a row and probably will get drafted in April. The rest of the line – Drew Hilton and Dominic Padtra at the guards, Mark Clemons at right tackle and Brandon Ciaramitaro at center – is just average. What isn’t average is this unit’s size; ASU averages out to be about as heavy as a small SEC line, and the tackles are particularly big.

Alabama counters with a group that just gets stronger as the year goes along. Guards Mike Johnson and Marlon Davis, tackles Drew Davis and Andre Smith and center Antoine Caldwell have developed into arguably the SEC’s best unit overall. Pass blocking can still give Alabama trouble at times, but that’s also true of Arkansas State, which ranks 67th in sacks allowed despite being primarily a running team. Depth solidly favors Alabama, and Alabama is more versatile. Advantage: Alabama


DEFENSE

The word for the day is mediocrity. Arkansas State neither stands out nor appears to be weak in any particular category. The Red Wolves will base from a 4-3 alignment, and what they do best is tackling runners and quarterbacks for loss. Arkansas State is ranked 8th nationally in the lost rushing yards category and 7th in sacks. The defensive line is the strong point of the unit, but experience and ability is in short supply behind them. This will, for Alabama, be most like the situation the Tide faced against Ole Miss.

Alabama counters with a group that is getting to be scarily good as the year winds down. As long as the Tide retains focus, opponents typically don’t see much of Alabama territory. In the second year under Nick Saban, Alabama’s defensive players are finally starting to learn the scheme well enough to be very good at executing it.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Three starters, all upperclassmen, returned for Arkansas State on the line this year, and it’s showed. Arkansas State is decent at run defense primarily because the line doesn’t have to ask for much help from the back seven in order to get the job done. The undisputed star of the show is massive 6’5”, 280-pound defensive end Alex Carrington, who despite playing for Arkansas State will be one of the best defensive linemen Alabama faces in 2008. He has already piled up 9.5 sacks on the year and 14 tackles for loss, unbelievable totals. Khari Mays and Bryan Hall start at the tackle positions and Bryan Flagg at the other end. All three have at least 2 sacks apiece in 2008, a testament to the ability of all the starting linemen to both control the run and get upfield.

The problem for Arkansas State is size. Mays has good size (6’2”, 290), but Hall and Flagg are much smaller than average. Curiously, ASU aligns with Mays and Carrington next to one another, meaning Alabama could get some downhill rushing opportunities over right guard and tackle. Stanley Wakwe, another mite-sized player, is the chief backup at both ends. Stanley Porter and Levi Thompson are the backup tackles, but are much smaller than the players they replace. Jeremy Gibson, a lanky player in the same vein of Alabama’s Chavis Williams, also helps out at end, along with Dorvus Woods. Gibson is a good pass rusher but is vulnerable against the run. Alabama counters with a unit that is playing its second week without nose tackle Terrence Cody. Josh Chapman started for Cody against Tennessee and more than did the job. He’ll start again this week alongside Bobby Greenwood and Brandon Deaderick at the ends.

The reserve situation is complicated with Cody out; Luther Davis and Lorenzo Washington will spell Chapman along with Marcel Dareus, but against Tennessee, Alabama realigned the group almost every play depending on the call. Nick Gentry should see some time as well, along with Milton Talbert. Courtney Upshaw and Eryk Anders, linebackers by trade, could get some playing time at end. While the loss of Cody hurts, and ASU’s starting line is quite capable, Alabama has better depth and better size overall. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Here’s where the troubles start for Arkansas State. Two starters, Darius Glover and Ben Owens, are capable players. Owens leads the team in tackles and also has 2 sacks, 2 interceptions and a pass breakup. Glover has similar numbers. The third starting position is an outright liability. Javon McKinnon will probably get the start there, but Greg Hardy, Demario Davis and Elroy Brown will all see time. Arkansas State has used the nickel quite a bit in 2008, preferring the extra safety to the third linebacker. Against Alabama’s rushing attack, however, the Red Wolves might not be able to get away with it. There has been virtually no production from the third LB slot in 2008.

Alabama counters with the inside terrors of Dont’a Hightower and Rolando McClain, along with Cory Reamer and Brandon Fanney outside. Prince Hall and Charlie Higgenbotham are both likely to see time in this game inside, while Eryk Anders, Courtney Upshaw and perhaps Chavis Williams and Jerrell Harris see some time at the outside slots. Alabama has the edge in depth in a big way. Advantage: Alabama


DEFENSIVE BACKS
Arkansas State had to replace all four starters coming into 2008, and by and large, the Red Wolves did a good job of it. They rank 58th in pass defense and 38th in pass efficiency defense despite playing several teams that like to pitch the ball around a lot. The Red Wolves are opportunistic, picking off 10 passes on the year as a team. Dominque Williams and Daylan Walker start at the corners, with M.D. Jennings and Evan Van Dolah at the safeties. All but Jennings are upperclassmen. ASU uses a nickel quite a bit, typically with Marcus Brown. Kelcie McCray is the primary backup safety, along with Leroy Trahan and Walter Moody. Height is good at the safety positions, although weight isn’t up to SEC level. The corners are just plain small – something to remember when Alabama trots out three wideouts over 6’4”.

Alabama counters with Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson at the corners and Rashad Johnson, Justin Woodall and Ali Sharrief at the safeties. Look for Chris Rogers, Mark Barron, Tyrone King Jr. and Robby Green to see action in this game as well. Alabama has similar pass defense numbers to Arkansas State, but much better efficiency defense numbers. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s rare to reach the eight game of the season and be able to say this about a kicker: Arkansas State’s Josh Arauco hasn’t missed a kick yet. Not just extra points, ALL kicks. He’s 25-of-25 on extra points and 15-of-15 on field goals, including 4-of-4 beyond 40 yards. He has not attempted from beyond 50 yet. The Red Wolves might be in line to take this category going away until you figure in punter Brett Shrable, who is averaging just 39.1 yards per punt. He is good at killing short kicks inside the 20, however. Statistically, Arkansas State is poor in net punting – but still better than Alabama – and terrible on kickoff returns (104th).

Alabama, however, is just 98th. Both teams return punts well. This one is as much a tossup as you’ll ever see. Alabama kicker Leigh Tiffin is coming off a great performance against Tennessee and punter P.J. Fitzgerald has been better than ever as of late, but Alabama still is good for breakdowns in punt protection and kickoff returns. The Tide, however, claims Javier Arenas as a kick returner. We’ll call this one for the Red Wolves based simply on consistency. Advantage: Arkansas State

OVERALL

Alabama leads in seven categories, Arkansas State in one. But quarterback and running back are very tight, and the ASU defensive line is far from bad.

In the line matchups, Alabama wins both. Alabama’s DL wins going away against ASU’s OL and has a clear, but not dominating edge with its OL facing Arkansas State’s DL, primarily because of the Red Wolves’ great pass rush off the corner.

Arkansas State doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. The Red Wolves are ranked 3rd in the nation in turnover margin, an average advantage of 1.4 turnovers per game. This team also opened up the season with a stunning 18-14 upset of Texas A&M.

In short, Arkansas State is a better team than the Louisiana-Monroe team that beat Alabama in 2007. The difference is the Alabama team that lost to ULM in 2007 isn’t even remotely the same as this one. Alabama has business to finish and the coaches have already begun reminding the players of what a letdown can do for them.

Don’t look for Alabama to score gobs of points in this game, as ASU’s offense runs the ball too much and eats up too much clock for Alabama to get that many opportunities. But it should be a comfortable win with Alabama again putting most of its points up in the middle and latter portions of the game once the Tide’s depth advantage starts having its most direct effect.

Alabama 38
Arkansas St. 7