News Article: LSU preview: Tigers in unaccustomed spoiler role

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LSU preview: Tigers in unaccustomed spoiler role
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 3, 2008

Prior to Nick Saban’s arrival at LSU at the turn of the century, many Alabama fans looked at LSU the way many people view a traveling circus: The sideshows were often more entertaining than the main event.

How else to explain how LSU would often psych itself out of nearly every Alabama game in Baton Rouge dating back to the 1960s? Or how LSU would so often be on the cusp of greatness only to have it end like it did for one particular Curley Hallman-coached team against Auburn?

Saban changed those attitudes. Now, LSU is hoping they aren’t changing back.

Following an improbable national championship season in which LSU lost two games and had to rely on a major (and in a season that saw Michigan lose to Appalachian State and Alabama to Louisiana-Monroe, often overlooked) upset – Pittsburgh defeating West Virginia – to even get a title shot in the first place, LSU is back at two losses despite a ton of talent. In addition, this will be Saban’s first trip back to Baton Rouge since he left for the NFL’s Miami Dolphins.

LSU has had this game circled all year, and Tiger fans have been foaming at the mouth for it ever since January 2007. There’s only one problem – this is historically the kind of confluence that tends to make LSU wet the bed in spectacular fashion.

Unfortunately for Alabama, the Alabama teams against which LSU displayed bouts of gridiron incontinence were typically just as talented – or more so – than the LSU teams they were facing. Not so this time. LSU has had nearly a decade of uninterrupted, stellar recruiting and has perhaps the deepest collection of talent of any SEC team. What the Tigers have been lacking is consistency, mostly the fault of a quarterback position that is unsettled and a secondary that is young and has been lackluster.

If Alabama wins Saturday, the Crimson Tide will clinch the SEC West no matter what it does against Mississippi State and Auburn, and will also have won its most difficult game left on the 2008 regular season schedule. But to do it, Alabama will have to beat the one team remaining on its schedule that has proven to be both a physical match and a talent match, to say nothing of beating back the external distractions LSU will be sure to visit upon Alabama as it makes its way to the field.

OFFENSE

LSU’s offense is a spread-infused pro-style offense that is uniquely the creation of its coordinator, Gary Crowton. When it is working well, it does something Auburn’s offense has struggled to do all season: It marries elements of the spread with that of a traditional power attack, and allows LSU to use the air or the ground to get what it wants. LSU, however, has been hamstrung by bad quarterback play in 2008, which wasn’t unexpected given the Tigers’ two choices were a Harvard transfer and a redshirt freshman going into the year. The Tigers are ranked 33rd in total offense, 29th in rushing and 58th in passing heading into this game – still not bad numbers overall, and more balanced than Alabama’s rush-heavy attack. Alabama is 18th in rushing, good for tops in the conference, but 100th in passing. The Tide’s own pro-style hybrid, however, has been greatly effective at burying less physical teams and controlling the flow of the game, along with minimizing mistakes.

QUARTERBACKS
For most of the season, LSU has rotated two quarterbacks, Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch. Hatch, a Harvard transfer, is adept at running option plays and the short passing game. But a leg injury suffered two weeks ago threatens to keep him out of this game entirely. If so, the job will fall to redshirt freshman Lee, who has had a typical season for a redshirt freshman in the SEC: up and down. Lee is 106-of-189 (56.1%) for 1,427 yards and 12 touchdowns, but also 10 interceptions. He has also shown some downright deplorable decision-making skills on occasion. Lee is not fleet of foot – he has no positive running plays on the season and has been sacked 7 times – but he does have good arm strength. Hatch is 25-of-45 (55.6%) for 282 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, and has rushed 35 times for 129 yards (3.7 avg.), good for the fourth-highest rushing total on the team. If he can’t go, Lee will be backed up by a true freshman, Jordan Jefferson, who has himself been hurt. If Jefferson can’t go, it falls to another freshman, T.C. McCartney, who has yet to play in a game. Alabama counters with John Parker Wilson, who is coming off arguably his worst game of the year against Arkansas State. Unfortunately for LSU, Wilson has been at his best in Alabama’s three road games. On the year, he’s 124-of-204 (60.8%) for 1,412 yards, 8 touchdowns and 4 picks. Wilson’s game management skills have improved tremendously in 2008 and he has shown an unflappable confidence in hostile situations. Alabama had a big edge here anyway; if Hatch is out, the Tide also gets the depth advantage, as Greg McElroy is more experienced and more game-ready than the other LSU quarterbacks. Advantage: Alabama


RUNNING BACKS
Two of Alabama’s top three running backs were nicked up against Arkansas State, but neither seriously enough to keep them out of this game. Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram, who have combined for more than 1,400 yards so far in 2008, suffered arm and ankle injuries against the Red Wolves, respectively. Both will play against LSU, however. Coffee has shown better ball security skills the last two weeks, and is thoroughly comfortable reading defenses and running downhill. Ingram’s power-running capabilities make him a tough out. Alabama’s third running back, Roy Upchurch, continued his strong play against Arkansas State after having a breakout outing against Tennessee. Terry Grant offers depth. Alabama has pretty much eliminated the fullback from its offense; Baron Huber still plays on short-yardage situations, and Upchurch comes into the game as a hybrid tailback/fullback for a handful of snaps. But mostly, Alabama is using Ace formations to get the blocking job done. LSU counters with the only running back corps left on the Tide’s schedule that can hang with the Tide trio. Charles Scott has carried 132 times for 889 yards (6.7 avg.) and 11 touchdowns. Three backups, Keiland Williams (51 carries, 218 yards, 4.3 avg., 1 TD), Richard Murphy (37 carries, 170 yards, 4.6 avg., 0 TD) and Stevan Ridley (12 carries, 92 yards, 7.7 avg., 1 TD), combine to offer great depth along with slot receiver and kick returner Trindon Holliday (13 carries, 50 yards, 3.8 avg., 0 TD). Quinn Johnson plays when LSU needs a fullback; he’s carried the ball 5 times for 14 yards (2.8 avg.) and 1 touchdown. The running backs are also very involved in the passing game. Alabama has the superior numbers statistics here, but if there’s even remotely a question about either Coffee or Ingram’s health, the depth edge for LSU is such that it throws things over to the Tigers’ side of the ledger. Scott himself has been nicked up, but is ready to go for Alabama. Not only that, but LSU’s Scott is a more complete back than anyone Alabama has at the moment. Advantage: LSU

WIDE RECEIVERS
This is as big a mismatch as you’ll find on the board. Although Alabama’s Julio Jones (33 catches, 506 yards, 15.3 avg., 4 TD) is as good or better than any LSU receiver, the Bayou Bengals can and do overwhelm teams with superior numbers. Demetrius Byrd (24 catches, 362 yards, 15.1 avg., 3 TD) and Brandon LaFell (39 catches, 572 yards, 14.7 avg., 6 TD) are the leaders of the pack, with Terrance Tolliver (6 catches, 101 yards, 16.8 avg., 0 TD) and Chris Mitchell (8 catches, 115 yards, 14.4 avg., 2 TD) the primary backups. Trindon Holliday and Ricky Dixon are also available. LSU also involves its tight ends heavily in the passing game, led by Richard Dickson (21 catches, 212 yards, 10.1 avg., 3 TD). The running backs also get quite a few catches. Alabama counters with Jones and, primarily, Mike McCoy (14 catches, 181 yards, 12.9 avg., 1 TD). He’s begun to emerge the last couple of games after being mostly window dressing the first half of the season as a receiver, although he has been a critical part of Alabama’s downfield blocking package in the running game. Nikita Stover has emerged as Alabama’s No. 3 receiver, while Marquis Maze and Will Oakley have been next in line. Darius Hanks came back from injury to offer Alabama a spark from the slot receiver position against Arkansas State; he might get more chances down the stretch. Hybrid tight end/receiver Brad Smelley continues to impress, and Earl Alexander offers depth. Traditional tight ends Nick Walker and Travis McCall, along with Preston Dial and Chris Underwood, have been solid. While stats are fairly equal, it bears noting that LSU has put them up despite having far inferior quarterback play. Byrd and LaFell together have more talent than any tandem in the SEC. Advantage: LSU

OFFENSIVE LINE
Both teams have veteran outfits that will be well represented on NFL Draft day. For LSU, center Brett Helms, guards Lyle Hitt and Herman Johnson and tackles Ciron Black and Joseph Barksdale have been a solid group, although Hitt didn’t play last week. They protect the quarterback (27th nationally in sacks allowed; 3rd in the SEC) and help open big lanes for the running backs. If there’s a weak point, it might be the right tackle, Barksdale. Depth is good; senior Ryan Miller backs up Helms at center and will play, while freshmen Will Blackwell and Josh Dworaczyk are the top backups off the bench. Ernest McCoy could also see time. Alabama counters with its starting five of center Antoine Caldwell, guards Marlon Davis and Mike Johnson and tackles Drew Davis and Andre Smith. Like LSU, Alabama’s potential weakness is over the right side, but by and large, there isn’t a glaring weakness. Although Alabama has respectable sacks-allowed numbers (36th nationally, 6th in the SEC), Alabama is clearly a better run-blocking team than a collection of standout pass protectors. Depth is very good, with David Ross and Brian Motley at the guards, William Vlachos at center and John Michael Boswell at tackle. Alabama’s depth situation is a little better given that it doesn’t rely so heavily on freshmen, and the presence of Smith gives Alabama and Caldwell give the Tide the edge in “star power,” as only Ciron Black for LSU has that kind of cred. It’s a close battle but one the Tide takes by a nose. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

LSU plays a 4-3 base, while Alabama opts for the 3-4 over/under. The difference has been execution and playcalling. LSU’s defense has begun to slip a bit from last year. It wasn’t, perhaps, the 52 points yielded to Georgia or the 51 to Florida that told the tale, but rather the 21 given up to Auburn and the 24 to Mississippi State, two teams that would have trouble scoring against their own marching bands. Alabama’s defense has been a rock-solid outfit from the start, and aside from a 30-point yield to Georgia, has stymied everyone else. The real item to watch will be the chess match between Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain and LSU’s co-defensive coordinators, Doug Mallory and Bradley Dale Peveto. So far, the Mallory-Peveto combo has been less than awe-inspiring, and McElwain has been able to expose poor defensive play quite easily. LSU has been respectable or better in rush defense (17th) and total defense (21st), but pass defense has been a problem, yielding big plays at some very inopportune times.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama will probably get nose tackle Terrence Cody back for this game. Whether Alabama will get a 100-percent healthy Terrence Cody back is another matter. Cody is likely to be limited somewhat, but Josh Chapman has proved the last two games that he’s no slouch. The biggest issue when Cody is out has been depth. Lorenzo Washington has played well in relief of Chapman, but Alabama has to pick its spots to use Washington, as his size doesn’t allow him to spend large amounts of time inside. Brandon Deaderick and Bobby Greenwood have had good years at their respective end positions, and will do their part to make concerns over the tackle rotation as minimal as possible. Milton Talbert has seen his playing time go up recently; he’ll help provide depth along with Luther Davis and Marcel Dareus. Nick Gentry is also available. LSU counters with one of the best lines in the country, particularly from the standpoint of depth. Kirston Pittman and Tyson Jackson will start at end, while Tremaine Johnson and Rahim Alem back them up. Despite being used only situationally, Alem has 6 sacks on the year. Marlon Favorite and Ricky Jean-Francois will start at tackle, with Charles Alexander and Drake Nevis the primary backups. Jean-Francois has been hurt a couple of different times this season but is apparently ready to go for Alabama. Depth continues behind this group, with Al Woods and Lazarius Levingston also set to play. Alabama has good depth; LSU has two complete platoons. Cody’s unsure status also helps tip the scales further in LSU’s direction. Advantage: LSU

LINEBACKERS
LSU will use four linebackers primarily against Alabama. Darry Beckwith is the most experienced of the bunch and will start in the middle. The two outside slots will be made up by some combination of Kelvin Sheppard, Jacob Cutrera and Perry Riley. Riley is the team’s second-leading tackler. While the athleticism is good here, two things stand out: Consistency is not to the level that LSU has been accustomed recently, and the linebackers aren’t particularly active in the pass rush. Riley and Beckwith have a half-sack apiece in 2008; Sheppard and Cutrera have been shut out. Ryan Baker and Shomari Clemons offer depth. Alabama counters with a group that is fast becoming a nightmare for opposing offenses, particularly up the middle, where Rolando McClain and Dont’a Hightower reside. Both are good in coverage and stellar against the run. Jack linebacker Brandon Fanney continues to exceed expectations, while outside linebacker Cory Reamer has become a strength against running teams. Eryk Anders and Courtney Upshaw offer Alabama speed-rushing options off the corner, while Prince Hall and Jerrell Harris provide further depth. There isn’t anything particularly wrong with LSU’s group; Alabama is just better. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
LSU ranks 39th in pass defense and 46th in pass efficiency defense, which at first don’t look like bad numbers. Consider, however, that LSU’s opponents have better pass defense stats against the Tigers than the Tigers have been able to generate against the opposition, as well as the fact that consistency has been in short supply for LSU. Jai Eugene and Chris Hawkins start at the corner positions and Harry Coleman and Curtis Taylor at the safety slots. LSU has picked off only four passes this year; Taylor and Hawkins have two each. Chad Jones and Danny McCray give LSU great depth off the bench, but McCray can get lost in coverage at times. The backup corner slots are a little more iffy. Phelon Jones, Ron Brooks and Patrick Peterson are the names to watch, but when they play it doesn’t signal an advantage for LSU against most receivers. Alabama counters with Kareem Jackson, Marquis Johnson and Javier Arenas at the corners and Justin Woodall, Rashad Johnson and Ali Sharrief at the safety slots. Alabama has displayed an opportunistic secondary in every game this year, with few weaknesses and one that is as good at run support as it is against the pass. This is one of just a handful of positions at which either team enjoys a clear edge. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama did most things well in special teams last week outside of a missed field goal from Leigh Tiffin. The Tide has been highly erratic in special teams all year, however, so things could change on a dime. Punter P.J. Fitzgerald has been solid, but punt protection has not and Alabama ranks dead last in the SEC in net punting. Punt returns have been good; kickoff returns, not so much. Kick coverage is like playing the lottery. LSU counters with a solid kicker, Colt David, and a punter who is greatly adept at killing kicks inside the 20, Brady Dalfrey. LSU is better than Alabama at punt returns, with Trindon Holliday doing most of the damage, but is just as bad as Alabama (104th nationally versus 103rd) at kickoff returns. The net punting game is what swings this category, although Alabama gets some of that back due to Tiffin’s superior range to David. Advantage: LSU


OVERALL

Alabama leads in four categories, LSU in four. In the line matchups, LSU’s DL beats Alabama’s OL but Alabama’s DL probably beats LSU’s OL, especially if Terrence Cody is available.

The key to this game will hinge on Alabama’s ability to force LSU QB Jarrett Lee into making mistakes. If Lee plays under control all game, Alabama will lose, period. LSU outmatches Alabama in most skill areas and is too good on the lines of scrimmage for Alabama to shove 300 yards rushing down the Tigers’ throats and effect a blowout. Alabama needs to make some game-changing plays on defense in order to win this one.

Intangibles, for once, are somewhat measurable. It’s only due to the fact that LSU has put so much emphasis on this game due to the Nick Saban factor. Will that cause LSU to get an extra bump, or will the Tigers put so much pressure on themselves that they’ll crack?

This is the last remaining game on Alabama’s schedule that was predicted as a loss in the preseason TideFans/NARCAS articles. It also holds the dubious distinction of being this week’s potential “upset special” game, the first one in which Alabama has been involved, and we’ve had a particularly difficult time pinning down the winner in these games in 2008.

If things are truly “back to normal” in the Alabama-LSU series, Alabama will find a way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat late in the game in Baton Rouge. But keep in mind that Saban will be facing a team that he helped build, at least in terms of helping recruit what is now LSU’s senior class. In other words, it’s a team built in his own image – and one that has reached the final step of “The Process” once already (or twice, in the case of sixth-year senior Kirston Pittman).

A loss to LSU would not be unexpected, but we’ll go away from our preseason take for the first time this year and also not pick the upset. Blame it on us if you feel Alabama gets jinxed as a result.

Alabama 21
LSU 20