News Article: SEC preview and predictions – Week 12

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SEC preview and predictions – Week 12
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 10, 2008

Last week’s record: 5-1 (83.3%)
Season record: 58-20 (74.4%)

Week 12 was a strong one for the Predictions Dept., with only a miss in the Tennessee-Wyoming game costing us a perfect week. The next week promises to be a busy one in the SEC, as both Florida and Georgia have potentially difficult tests in the East, while Alabama faces an always scrappy Mississippi State squad in the West in a revenge game.

SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA
The Gamecocks represent Florida’s toughest test before facing Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Florida State, a road game that bookends the Gators’ regular schedule, is still a mental basket case. South Carolina finally has some semblance of a decent quarterback philosophy now with Stephen Garcia and Chris Smelley, and the USC defense is one of the few that can stand toe-to-toe with Florida’s offense. Florida’s defense also has some vulnerabilities, but the question is whether South Carolina has the ability to expose them. The bet is that the Gamecocks don’t. Were this game in Columbia, it might qualify as an upset special but with it being in Gainesville, look for Florida to win comfortably.
Florida 27
South Carolina 13

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!

GEORGIA at AUBURN
This week’s “upset special” finds Georgia on the road in Auburn. On paper, this is a major mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs given Auburn’s epic struggles in 2008. But Auburn’s defense can be good when it wants to be, and Georgia’s mindset has gone back in the tank ever since Alabama exposed the Bulldogs in Athens earlier this year. A big win over LSU was followed by a throttling at the hands of Florida, the depth of which still hasn’t been adequately explained. Last week, Georgia nearly lost to a mediocre Kentucky team. Auburn isn’t good by any means, but the Tigers are probably tougher than Kentucky – a team which used a true freshman at quarterback and made the Bulldog defense look stupid in the process. Look for this one to be a lot closer than anyone expects, but we won’t go so far as to pick an outright upset.
Georgia 27
Auburn 24

VANDERBILT at KENTUCKY
Kentucky broke out of its offensive doldrums last week against Georgia – perfect timing, given that the Wildcats will face a couple of very beatable teams to finish the season. The Wildcats could even reach the eight-win plateau by finishing with wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee – and will likely be favored in both games. Vanderbilt’s wheels are completely off the wagon at this point, a sad thing given that this game is probably the most likely chance for a sixth, bowl-clinching win for the Commodores. Vandy doesn’t match up well with Tennessee’s size, and Wake Forest is beginning to play up to potential again. Kentucky has suffered several critical injuries lately, but the Wildcats are believing in themselves. Vanderbilt is back to being Vandy.
Kentucky 24
Vanderbilt 10

TROY at LOUISIANA STATE
This game was postponed due to Hurricane Ike. At the time it was originally scheduled for play, we predicted a 52-7 win for LSU. Now we’re happy to get a second shot at this. Troy’s defense is one of the best at big plays in the country, although the Trojans’ defensive average stats aren’t so great. LSU showed a troubling inconsistency on offense against Alabama. Troy’s offense likely won’t be able to do enough to effect an upset here, but it might take LSU three quarters of football to build a comfortable lead.
LSU 34
Troy 7

LOUISIANA-MONROE at MISSISSIPPI
The Warhawks have struggled to a 3-7 season this year, but many of Louisiana-Monroe’s losses have been tight ones. Still, the best hope for ULM here is to hope Ole Miss gets caught looking ahead to LSU and Mississippi State, two of its biggest rivals. Otherwise, this is going to be the win the Rebels need for bowl eligibility. Expect Ole Miss to get it.
Ole Miss 30
La.-Monroe 20

IDLE: Tennessee, Arkansas