News Article: MSU preview: Bama is looking ahead – to revenge

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MSU preview: Bama is looking ahead – to revenge
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 10, 2008

Given the fact that Alabama is coming off a big win over LSU on the road, and has Auburn in two weeks after an off-week, it is only natural for many to fear the Crimson Tide would be looking past a 3-6 Mississippi State team that has been the picture of offensive dysfunctionality in 2008.

Alabama probably is looking ahead – to revenge.

In 2006, Mississippi State stunned Alabama at home, effectively ending the Mike Shula era at the Capstone and ushering in the hiring of Nick Saban. In 2007, State went one step further, shocking Alabama 17-12 and nearly dealing Alabama’s bowl hopes death in the process. Alabama hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown on Mississippi State since 2004.

Compounding the issue for Alabama is that if State wants to go to a bowl, it has to beat Alabama. A loss here ends the Bulldogs’ postseason hopes. And nothing needs to be said about how badly MSU head coach Sylvester Croom wants to beat the alma mater he now seems to hate.

Mississippi State has a fine defense, particularly against the pass. Offensively, however, the Bulldogs have been nothing short of terrible. Special teams aren’t special and there has been talk of a staff shakeup at year’s end.

But emotionally and health-wise – the Bulldogs had an off-week last week – Mississippi State might have the edge. MSU’s top rival may be Ole Miss, but Croom has positioned Alabama as the Bulldogs’ measuring stick – and they’ve responded.

OFFENSE

To call the Mississippi State offense a “version of the West Coast” is like saying Hot Wheels makes “versions” of Chevrolets. Croom has tried, repeatedly, to install the offense in Starkville but has come up snake eyes every time. MSU simply doesn’t have the personnel to run it. What they do have is enough to run an I-based, power attack that highlights a good crop of running backs. But anytime State is forced into the air, bad things typically happen. Mississippi State is 100th in rushing offense and 91st in passing offense in 2008, 106th in total offense and 114th in scoring offense. The Bulldogs rank 76th in turnover margin. Alabama counters with its hybrid pro set attack which proved against LSU that it can pass to win when it needs to. Alabama’s passing numbers are actually worse than MSU’s, but that ranking is deceiving given that Alabama actually is a threat at times in the air. Rushing comparisons are no contest, thanks to a stronger Alabama offensive line.

QUARTERBACKS
Wesley Carroll got benched early in MSU’s season after making a lot of analysts look silly over the offseason. To many, Carroll was going to be the next big thing after late wins over Kentucky, Alabamaa nd Ole Miss, then again in the Liberty Bowl over Central Florida. But Carroll not only didn’t progress this season; he regressed. He’s 52-of-102 (51.0%) for 534 yards, 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on the year. He’s also now the backup to junior college walk-on Tyson Lee, who has actually put up good numbers since taking over. Lee is 114-of-183 (62.3%) for 1,119 yards, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The issues for Lee is size (5’11”, 190) and arm strength, categories in which he trails most of the league. He’s got decent scrambling ability, but is still averaging less than a yard per carry once sack totals are figured in. Lee’s best attributes are that he’s a better game manager than Carroll, and that he simply isn’t Carroll in the first place. Redshirt freshman Chris Relf is the third-teamer and has played a little this year. Alabama counters with John Parker Wilson, who despite having ho-hum numbers the last three weeks has been efficient, and big when it counted. Wilson’s last two drives against LSU showed the value of senior leadership. Statistically, he’s 139-of-235 (59.1%) for 1,627 yards, 8 touchdowns and 5 picks. He’s a good scrambler when he needs to be and has rushed for 4 touchdowns on the year. His backup is Greg McElroy, who has limited experience. A comparison of starters is no contest; when backups are added, State closes the gap significantly due to Carroll’s previous experience. But it’s still an Alabama edge. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Many teams would be thrilled to have State’s one-two punch of Anthony Dixon and Christian Ducre. Dixon has 647 yards on 155 carries on the year (4.2 avg.) and 6 touchdowns. Ducre has rushed 55 times for 222 yards (4.0 avg.) and 2 touchdowns. Dixon is a power back; Ducre is a slasher. Redshirt freshman Robert Elliott, who has speed to burn, has carried 18 times for 61 yards (3.4 avg.) and 1 touchdown, but hasn’t played in a month. Arnil Stallworth provides depth. MSU has good depth at fullback, with seniors Eric Hoskins and Brandon Hart splitting time. Hart is the better runner, Hoskins the better receiver. Both are powerful blockers. Alabama counters with Glen Coffee, who has now gone over the 1,000-yard rushing mark, and Mark Ingram. Roy Upchurch suffered a neck stinger against LSU and his status for this game may be up in the air. If he can’t go, look for Terry Grant or perhaps even Demetrius Goode to get some carries. Baron Huber and H-back Travis McCall will get most of the snaps from the fullback slot, along with Upchurch if he’s healthy. While Dixon and Ducre have had success in the past against Alabama, offensive line troubles have limited them this year and all three of Alabama’s top backs are averaging a full yard per carry more than them. MSU has the edge at fullback but it’s not enough. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Mississippi State has some of the biggest receivers Alabama has seen this year, but not necessarily the best playmakers. Brandon McRae (6’4”, 200) and Aubrey Bell (6’4”, 210) are the starters. McRae has been productive, snagging 43 balls so far this year, but he has only 434 yards receiving, for a 10.1 per-catch average. He has caught 3 touchdown passes. Bell is even worse off; he’s caught 28 passes for 248 yards (8.9 avg.) and is yet to score. This points to the aforementioned arm strength issues with State’s quarterbacks. The next-leading receiver is third-team running back Arnil Stallworth, which says something about State’s lack of depth at the receiver slots. Co-Eric Riley (10 catches, 92 yards, 9.2 avg., 0 TD) and true freshman Delmon Robinson (9 catches, 104 yards, 11.6 avg., 0 TD) are the next wave, with Jamayel Smith (13 catches, 169 yards, 13.0 avg., 0 TD) and Arceto Clark rounding out the unit. At tight end, it’s a mess. Freshman Nelson Hurst starts, but sophomore Brandon Henderson is the receiving threat of the bunch (6 catches, 70 yards, 11.7 avg., 1 TD). Two other players, Kendrick Cook and Austin Wilbanks, will see action as well. None of them are game-changers. Alabama counters with a unit that has had its own issues – but one that also has super-freshman Julio Jones (40 catches, 634 yards, 15.9 avg., 4 TD). Alabama has struggled to develop a second receiver, with Marquis Maze, Nikita Stover and Mike McCoy the three most-used players in the mix. Will Oakley, Earl Alexander, B.J. Scott and Darius Hanks provide depth, along with tight end/receiver hybrid Brad Smelley. Tight ends Nick Walker and Travis McCall give Alabama a pair of devastating blockers who can catch the football well. Chris Underwood, Smelley and Preston Dial offer depth at that position. Alabama’s corners will be challenged by the MSU starters, but Alabama has Jones and a definite edge at the tight end position. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
MSU’s problems really start up front, as a nearly entirely new line has struggled this season to do anything positive. Only one starter, senior guard Anthony Strauder, returned from what had become a good starting unit last year. Part-time starter Craig Jenkins will start across from Strauder at left guard in this game. Strauder and Jenkins are average at best for SEC guards; the rest of the line is below that. Center J.C. Brignone and tackles Derek Sherrod and Quentin Saulsberry have had their troubles. Sherrod will be a good one in time, but right tackle Saulsberry is an outright liability and Alabama will work to exploit it. Depth is actually pretty good behind the starters, as Michael Gates gives MSU a senior guard off the bench and Mark Melichar can play either tackle position. If it goes beyond those two, however, the Bulldogs are in deep trouble. Alabama’s line, meanwhile, has come together into a very cohesive unit, particularly as run blockers – although the pass blocking against LSU’s veteran line was superb. Center Antoine Caldwell, guards Marlon Davis and Michael Johnson and tackles Andre Smith and Drew Davis have few peers in the SEC or anywhere else. Depth is good behind them, with David Ross, John Michael Boswell, William Vlachos and Brian Motley. There’s really no comparison between how these two units have fared in 2008. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

The biggest loss for Mississippi State following the 2007 season may have been defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson. Not only was Johnson the architect of the scheme the Bulldogs still use, he had a knack for knowing when to dial up a blitz package. Current defensive coordinator Charlie Harbison lacks that intuition, but a strong pass defense has allowed State to put up impressive defensive numbers nonetheless. MSU ranks 19th in total defense, 2nd against the pass and 11th in pass efficiency defense. But rush defense numbers (67th) and scoring defense (41st) have been disappointing. State also has fallen off in its sack numbers (82nd). Alabama counters with the fourth-best defense in America, 4th against the run, 7th in pass efficiency defense, 7th in scoring defense and 31st in raw pass defense numbers. Mississippi State employs a 4-3 look while Alabama opts for the 3-4 over/under.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Inside, Mississippi State fields a decent group. Kyle Love, Jessie Bowman and Cortez McCraney are a pretty stout tackle trio. Bowman and Love are typical short, squatty nose tackles while McCraney is a poor man’s Lorenzo Washington. LaMarcus Williams and Joshua Jackson add further depth. The problem is at the ends, which are too small for SEC play. Tim Bailey, a senior, is generously listed at 250 pounds; his counterpart, true freshman Sean Ferguson, barely tops the scales at 220 pounds. The effect would be the same if Alabama started Courtney Upshaw and Eryk Anders. Jimmy Holmes, Brandon Cooper and Charles Burns form the second wave. Alabama counters with Terrence Cody in the middle flanked by Bobby Greenwood, who has turned up his play immensely in the second half of the year, and Brandon Deaderick. Josh Chapman, Lorenzo Washington, Luther Davis and Marcel Dareus provide depth along with Nick Gentry and Milton Talbert. Alabama can mix and match its group much more easily than can Mississippi State, and still maintain good defense against the run in the process. MSU gets a good interior pass rush at times but isn’t consistent, and the lack of ability to consistently stop the run is troubling. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
When MSU lost Jamar Chaney for the season, it was a huge blow to the Bulldogs’ chances. K.J. Wright has picked up a lot of Chaney’s slack, but the domino effect of Chaney’s loss has hurt badly. Dominic Douglas moved from the weakside to the middle, where he has been acceptable. Wright starts on the strongside. The new weakside backer is sophomore Karlin Brown, who goes 5’9”, 195 pounds and is a dead ringer in style for former Alabama player Demarcus Waldrop. He’s good in space but has trouble against physical running games. Anthony Littlejohn gives MSU some senior experience off the bench, but the rest of the backups are all freshmen with holes in their games. Terrell Walters and Jamie Jones, along with Bo Walters, round out the unit. Alabama counters with a unit that just keeps getting better. Rolando McClain was a monster in the middle against LSU, while Prince Hall got increased action in relief of Dont’a Hightower. Cory Reamer and Brandon Fanney start at the outside slots. Courtney Upshaw and Eryk Anders offer speed-rush options off the bench, while Jerrell Harris and Charlie Higgenbotham may also see action. The Bulldog unit shows a lot of spunk, but Alabama simply has better players. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Alabama did a great job of shutting down the LSU passing attack, and by and large, the Crimson Tide has had an excellent year. Alabama tends to give up decent amounts of passing yardage, but limits big plays. Corners Javier Arenas, Marquis Johnson and Kareem Jackson have been solid, along with safeties Justin Woodall, Ali Sharrief and particularly Rashad Johnson, whose last few games have been nothing short of spectacular. But Alabama still comes in second to a veteran Mississippi State unit that has few peers nationally and leads the SEC in pass defense. Cornerbacks Jasper O’Quinn and Marcus Washington are quality players who don’t overwhelm with size or speed, but who play with good technique. Safety depth is almost too rich for belief. Keith Fitzhugh and Derek Pegues start hhead of De’Mon Glanton and Zach Smith. Tay Bowser and Damein Anderson back up O’Quinn and Washington. The only area in which Alabama holds an edge is in takeaways by the secondary, but that’s likely a function of other teams not wishing to test the strength of the Bulldog defense all that often. Both groups are high-quality; MSU is just a little better and deeper. Advantage: Mississippi State

SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin is in a two-week rut and until he snaps out of it, can’t be considered a strength any longer at placekicker. Tiffin missed one kick against LSU and had another blocked that looked to be left off his foot, anyway. Tiffin is now 2-of-7 from beyond 40 yards. Fortunately for Alabama, punter P.J. Fitzgerald has quietly put together a solid year and probably had the best game of his career against LSU. Kick coverage has been much improved over the second half of the season, and punt returns are in good shape with Javier Arenas, but Alabama has the worst kickoff return stats in the SEC. This category would be easy pickings for Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have been flat-out terrible. Placekicker Adam Carlson has had a most curious season. He is a perfect 3-of-3 from beyond 40 yards, but just 3-of-8 from 39 and less, including 0-of-2 from extra-point range. Punter Blake McAdams has had a subpar year, averaging around 38 yards per punt. Mississippi State has yet to record a touchback on a kickoff. The return game has been neutered despite the presence of Derek Pegues. In all, Alabama is struggling, but Mississippi State is struggling worse. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in seven categories, Mississippi State in one. Alabama also holds clear edges in both LOS matchups.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Alabama could lose this game. It would have to come down to Alabama taking Mississippi State lightly, or looking over the Bulldogs to games against Auburn or Florida.

Given that Alabama coaches have made it a point to remind the team throughout the year about the 2006 and 2007 losses, it’s not likely that Alabama will have that problem. MSU isn’t good enough to beat Alabama straight up, which is about as much as the Bulldogs can hope to happen here.

So barring tremendous numbers of injuries, or a complete mental breakdown in preparation, look for Alabama to pull off a solid win here. It likely won’t be pretty, and MSU’s defense is good enough to keep Alabama from putting up gobs of points. But the Bulldog offense needs help to score even on its best day, and Alabama’s defense isn’t in the business of helping anyone besides itself.

Alabama 27
Mississippi St. 7